This article is part of our College Football Picks series.
College Football Picks: Utah vs. Oklahoma State
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A big ranked matchup kicks of Big 12 play here, with the No. 10/12 Utes traveling to face the No. 15/14 Cowboys. Both team's head in to this battle, what could be a preview of a future conference championship matchup, at 3-0 SU. Utah is just 1-2 ATS however, with the under hitting in two of their three outings. Oklahoma State meanwhile is the opposite, sitting at 2-1 ATS with the over hitting twice.
Utah vs Oklahoma State Betting Odds for Week 4
Spread: Utah +2.5 (-105, FanDuel Sportsbook); Oklahoma State -2 (-110, Caesars Sportsbook)
Total: 52.5 (Over, -105, ESPN Bet); 52.5 (Under, -105, BetMGM)
Moneyline: Utah +118 (Caesars Sportsbook); Oklahoma State -130 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
We'll start with the total, as it's seemingly the most stable number. It opened at 52.0, peaked mid-week at 54.5, but is now universally available at just a half point higher than it's beginning number. Odds shopping isn't fruitful either, as we're talking about pennies of value regardless of the size of your bet.
The spread is where things get interesting. Utah opened as a -1.5 favorite and went as high as -3 before a sharp shift Wednesday night into Thursday to its current spot favoring the Cowboys. That's a massive line movement that would lead most to believe it's 100 percent correlated to the health, or lack thereof, of Utah QB Cameron Rising. But current reports indicate he's fully healthy after missing last week with a hand injury. I've read very unconfirmed rumors of some heavy money coming in on Oklahoma State, which would make sense simply on the line shift. Remember, the books want even money on both sides so they can't lose. Everyone and their mother betting on one side doesn't mean it's a winner; the lines are simply adjusted to get more money on the other side.
The moneyline odds have obviously shifted with the spread. OSU is sitting at -140 at many spots, and I see no value in that. If you bet Utah ML earlier in the week, that's unfortunate. In the very rare instance for me personally, where I view lines mid-afternoon Sunday and pounce on a few, this one moved against what I would have thought was the conventional wisdom.
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Utah vs Oklahoma State Betting Picks for Week 4
This is a struggle for a best bet across many levels. The game obviously 100 percent depends on Rising's health, and the accuracy of the reports he's got a clean bill. But we also have to consider what's going on with the Oklahoma State run game. Ollie Gordon averaged 6.1 ypc last season and is sitting at 3.2 ypc through three games.
Utah's best opponent was Baylor, where they were rolling before Risings' injury. Oklahoma State's best is probably Arkansas, where they struggled defensively and got lucky. Defense travels, which favors Utah. The home field is worth as much at four points in conference play, which favors Oklahoma State.
I honestly like the under here. Utah's lead back, Micah Bernard, is averaging 6.7 ypc, and that can help negate questions we have on Rising. And at some point, Gordon is going to get going. But I'm not a total guy, and if both score 24 points, then this is in jeopardy. As such, I'm backing the Utes. Defense primarily, and maybe we get word before kickoff that Rising isn't 100 percent and the number goes up, which certainly changes the line of thinking. But that could create even more appeal to the road underdog.
Utah vs Oklahoma State Expert Pick: Utah +2.5 (-105) at FanDuel Sportsbook
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Utah vs Oklahoma State Predictions for Week 4
I'm banking on Utah's defense showing better than it did last week. They left their vaunted home environment for the first time, staying in state, and allowed 21 points and 221 yards rushing to Utah State. That's a bit concerning. Were they looking ahead?
Oklahoma State has played one Power 4 school to date, and while Utah hasn't, the Cowboys allowed 31 points and 232 yards rushing to Arkansas, escaping with a win thanks to the Razorbacks' inability to kick field goals. Conference road games are never easy, and you'd expect the home team to hold serve, but this spread isn't a full home-field bump, suggesting Utah is the better team in a neutral environment. A healthy Rising is undoubtedly the key to the outcome. He plays, plays well and makes this a final possession type game, giving me confidence in the points, if not an outright win.
Utah 28-27
