It's the season of giving, the season of good cheer. Oh yeah, and it's the holidays too.
Our focus is giving out College Football Playoff berths, which the CFP committee did Sunday, and cheering from fans of the 12 participating teams. College football betting action is heating up with four first-round CFP games next week at campus sites.
So, as we do for weekly NFL games, RotoWire.com used ChatGPT to see what the AI product would predict for results from each first-round CFP matchup. We requested 10 simulations for each game, with scores for each, using depth charts and statistics as of Dec. 8. Here are the results:
ChatGPT Predicts CFP First-Round Game Results
Matchup | Result | Visitors Avg. MOV | Home Avg.MOV |
Alabama at Oklahoma |
| 2.5 | 6.0 |
Miami at Texas A&M |
| 1.8 | 6.5 |
Tulane at Mississippi |
| 2.0 | 8.4 |
James Madison at Oregon |
| NA | 16.4 |
Oklahoma 6-4
Texas A&M 6-4
Mississippi 7-3
Oregon 10-0These results are exclusive to RotoWire.com, where the best college football betting promos can be found.
Below, we break down the matchups and what AI projects for each game. All times listed below are Eastern.
Alabama at Oklahoma (8 p.m. Dec. 19, Norman, Oklahoma)
This is a rematch from the regular season, and Oklahoma won the first game, giving the Sooners a leg up to be the higher seed (and thus the host) for the CFP meeting.
Alabama didn't drop from its No. 9 spot in the penultimate CFP rankings. That was a point of controversy after the Crimson Tide got rocked in Saturday's SEC title game. Anyone holding a CFP futures betting ticket with preseason odds of -185 for Bama to make the CFP had to be sweating after that.
Alabama split two meetings against Georgia – winning Sept. 27 at UGA but losing the championship game to the Bulldogs, 28-7, in Atlanta. That win in Athens was Bama's best this season and, apparently, just making the SEC Championship Game was enough for the committee to let the Crimson Tide be the first three-loss team in the 12-team field.
As for the AI projection, ChatGPT slightly favors the host and No. 8 seed Sooners over the ninth-seeded Crimson Tide, with a 6-4 edge. But all 10 projected games were close and the odds reflect that. At BetRivers Sportsbook, the Crimson Tide was a 1-point favorite as of Dec. 8. Oklahoma won the first meeting, 23-21, on Nov. 15 in Tuscaloosa.
Miami at Texas A&M (noon Dec. 20, College Station, Texas)
Miami had to have the happiest fanbase out of any team that got into the 12-team CFP when selections were announced on Sunday.
The Hurricanes had trailed Notre Dame for weeks in the rankings, despite UM's 27-24 win over the Fighting Irish in the season opener. Two ACC losses meant that UM missed the ACC Championship Game, but the Canes got into the CFP thanks to Duke knocking off ranked Virginia in the title game, and a change of heart from the CFP selection folks.
Now Miami gets a shot at No. 7 seed Texas A&M, which is no doubt still smarting after a loss to rival Texas. That game not only ended the Aggies' chances at an undefeated season, but kept A&M out of its first SEC Championship Game appearance.
Do-everything quarterback Marcel Reed (2,932 yards and 25 touchdowns passing, 466 yards and 6 TDs rushing) will be a puzzle for No. 10 seed Miami to solve in College Station. AI projects a 6-4 edge for A&M and FanDuel Sportsbook lists the Aggies as a 3.5-point favorite, along with several other operators.
Tulane at Mississippi (3:30 p.m. Dec. 20, Oxford, Mississippi)
Like Alabama vs. Oklahoma, this is a rematch from the regular season. On Sept. 20, Ole Miss routed Tulane 45-10 as QB Trinidad Chambliss passed for 307 yards and two TDs and ran for 112 yards.
Tulane had +750 preseason odds to make the CFP at BetMGM Sportsbook. But the Green Wave won the American Conference championship on Friday, plowing through the distraction of their head coach, Jon Sumrall, agreeing on Nov. 30 to take over the Florida job starting next season.
Sumrall will continue to coach No. 11 seed Tulane through the postseason, unlike the Green Wave's opponent on Nov. 20.
The sixth-seeded Rebels have had coaching drama of their own. Lane Kiffin bolted Oxford to take the LSU job, leaving defensive coordinator Pete Golding to act as interim coach during Mississippi's CFP run (Golding has since been named the permanent head coach).
Ole Miss is a solid 16.5-point CFP favorite, at Caesars and several other sportsbooks, to defeat Tulane again. Our AI predictions agree, with the Rebels taking seven out of 10 projected meetings.
James Madison at Oregon (7:30 p.m. Dec. 20, Eugene, Oregon)
The 
James Madison Dukes are the true Cinderella story of this Playoff.
They got in as Sun Belt Conference champions – and a second Group of 5 entrant as the No. 12 seed – by benefitting from the chaos that saw five-loss Duke crowned as ACC champions. CFP rules stated that automatic bids go to the top five ranked conference champions, not necessarily including all of the Power 4 winners (that rule will change next year).
But how much of a chance does JMU have out of a weak conference, whose only game against a Power 4 opponent this season resulted in a 28-14 loss Sept. 5 at Louisville?
According to ChatGPT and the oddsmakers, not much.
No. 5 seed Oregon, whose only loss was to No. 1-ranked Indiana, is a 20.5-point favorite at bet365 Sportsbook and a perfect 10-0 in simulations that AI ran. Our projected games were rarely close, with the Ducks averaging a 16.4-point margin of victory.
Q&A
Q: How did ChatGPT simulate first-round College Football Playoff games?
A: RotoWire ran 10 simulations for all four CFP first-round games using ChatGPT, with information for each team as of Dec. 8. Each game produced projected scores, a winner, and a calculated average margin of victory (MOV). This allowed us to compare not only who wins most often but how decisively.
Q: Which teams dominated the ChatGPT simulations?
A: The Oregon Ducks dominated the James Madison Dukes in RotoWire's ChatGPT simulated matchups, as AI projected Oregon to beat JMU in 100% of the simulated games.
Q: What were the closest or most balanced matchups in the simulations?
A: This week, ChatGPT projected two closer matchups, both with 6-4 results. ChatGPT has Oklahoma (vs. Alabama) and Texas A&M (vs. Miami) beating their opponents in six out of the 10 simulated matchups.
