DraftKings College Football: CFB DFS Week 13 Main Slate Breakdown

This article is part of our DraftKings College Football series.

CFB DFS Picks: DraftKings College Football Week 13 DFS Picks and Plays

The penultimate week of the season is always a tricky one for season-long players and college football fans in general. And yes, I did just want to use the word penultimate while I had the chance.

This week is always littered with a weird mix of cupcake games for the bigger programs and it can be tricky to truly fall in love with the slate. Luckily, though, we DFS players don't have that problem. DraftKings has scraped together the best possible 12-game slate for the main this week and it's got some promising matchups in there. Three games with totals north of 60 and the majority of the slate having totals of 55.0 or more. Let's dig in.

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Slate Overview

Miami vs Wake Forest

Most of the action here is expected to come from the 'Canes as Miami sports a slate-high 45.25 implied total that laps the field on this slate. You really gotta pay to get into the club if you're trying to stack Miami, though. 

Cam Ward ($10,500) is the priciest player on the board and his top target, Xavier Restrepo, checks in at $8,000. To get this stack, you'd be plopping 37 percent of your bankroll on two players. Miami can't mess around here and there's still an outside shot of Ward making a run at the Heisman so it would make sense for Ward and Restrepo to return value here. The key will be finding a way to round out the remainder of your build.

If you're looking for other options from this game, Miami running back Damien Martinez ($6,100) is a pretty nice value for the touchdown upside but it's worth remembering he averages fewer than 12 carries per game. His season-high is just 15 carries, though he's hit that figure three times. His backup, Mark Fletcher ($4,900) is a decent punt option at running back. It may take some time for him to start getting worked in, but once Miami pulls away, he should be the guy to put the game on ice. 

The only runback option I'd strongly consider on the Wake Forest side is Taylor Morin at $5,200. He has a team-high 20.6 target share (7.2 Tar/G) and peels off 9.4 yards per target. The PPR floor is solid here. Donovan Greene ($4,700) is two games removed from his return from injury and is getting more in the mix, so he is also a GPP option.

Oklahoma State vs Texas Tech

In my mind's eye, these two teams have played each other at least four times this year already. Apparently that's not the case but that's alright since we get to talk about it now.

Oklahoma State is down bad. The 'Pokes have to be one of the biggest disappointments relative to expectation this season. 0-7 in Big 12 play. That's seven straight losses. They haven't won since Sept. 14 when they drubbed Tulsa.

Oklahoma State has allowed 276.57 rushing yards per game at a 6.41 YPC clip in conference play. You know what that means, folks. Bah gawd, that's Tahj Brooks' music. 

Brooks is $8,900 which is of course steep but still not as bad as some of the other elite running backs on the board. Omarion Hampton ($9,600) on UNC is a great play, too, but Brooks offers $700 worth of savings with the softest possible matchup. 

Ollie Gordon ($8,700) has been a tough eval this year. Many of us are probably too scarred to go back to the Gordon well again at this point. He is coming off one of his best games of the season and will be fresh off the bye, but it's important to remember those 121 yards came against a TCU run defense that's markedly worse than Texas Tech's. 

Getting the passing games right from this game could be the key to this slate. Again, we've got a high total and a narrow spread (TTU -4.5) so there will be passing action on both sides. Both teams have good pass play rates (TTU 52%, OKST 56%) but neither is overly efficient (TTU 6.9 YPA, OKST 7.2 YPA). 

Luckily, the mediocre QB play on both sides can be papered over by the fact that both defenses are atrocious against the pass. Texas Tech allows 305.6 passing yards per game and Oklahoma State allows 8.3 YPA (2nd highest on the slate). Both defenses will be spending a decent amount of bandwidth on stopping the run so this is a favorable setup for both Behren Morton ($6,500) and Alan Bowman ($7,300). 

Neither of them average 20 DK points per game. Morton has crossed the 20-point threshold twice in conference play while Bowman hit 20.0 on the dot exactly once against Kansas State. Bowman has been benched in his two recent games, and it's been so long since he played for Texas Tech that he might not even remember this is a revenge game at this point. 

If I'm taking the plunge with either, it's Morton for job security and salary relief reasons. 

Of the pass-catchers, Oklahoma State's Brennan Presley ($7,200) is the toughest to square. He ranks second on the slate in targets (107) and third in catches (71). The role and the quarterback play limit his explosiveness, though, as he averages 6.2 YPT and 9.4 yards per reception. To make this work, he'll need another one of his double-digit catch outings and hopefully find his way into the end zone. Otherwise, the yardage likely isn't going to be there.

De'Zhaun Stribling ($6,600) started out hot before running cold for about a month, but it looks like he's turning things around. He's coming off a 26.1 DK point outing against TCU and has drawn seven and 12 targets in his last two games. Stribling has an edge on Presley in explosiveness (10.0 YPT) and his target count can occasionally match that of his counterpart's.

Texas Tech's Josh Kelly ($7,000) actually leads the slate in targets (111) and receptions (76). Like Presley, we're not looking at a guy who terrifies the defense with his physicality but he gets the job done nonetheless. In the end, we're looking at a player with an affordable salary figure who draws 11 targets per game and has a strong catch rate. Great floor, and this setup should give him one of his better ceiling projections of the season. 

Coy Eakin ($4,400) presents a way to get less chalky exposure to this passing game. He sees 5.4 targets per game in Big 12 play. Eakin doesn't have an outstanding catch rate in that sample (55.2%) but he can return value at $4,400. Caleb Douglas ($5,000) has shown more single-game upside. In Weeks 6-9, Douglas caught 23 of 33 targets for 355 yards and three scores in three games. That's 27.5 DK points per game. He has been held in check in his last two outings but has gotten six targets in each of those two games. Douglas will be involved Saturday and has the spike week potential.

Alright that's enough about that game. Let's get into some positional picks.

Quarterback

Cam Ward ($10,500) Miami vs Wake Forest

We don't need to belabor the point on Ward too much further but he's absolutely worth building around on this slate. He has been one of the best quarterbacks in the country this year in terms of production and a home matchup against Wake Forest with Miami lacking any margin for error should lead to one of his best outings of the season. 300 yards and three touchdowns feels like a baseline projection for him.

I'm curious to see how the roster percentage shakes out with Ward, too.  Other stars like Shedeur Sanders ($9,200), Jaxon Dart ($9,100) and Quinn Ewers ($8,200) are on this slate and eat up significantly less cap space. If people are loading up on running back, which definitely makes slate on this slate, Ward might be somewhat lightly rostered by the field.

Behren Morton ($6,500) Texas Tech at Oklahoma State

I'm not rehashing Morton for the sake of it. It's legitimately difficult to find cheap upside at quarterback on this slate and Morton fits the bill. He might get upwards of 40-45 attempts against a bad defense that is already going to have to worry a lot about slowing Tahj Brooks. 

Kevin Jennings ($7,900) SMU at Virginia

Jennings might be another quarterback who is underutilized by the field Saturday. He's in that middle zone in terms of salary at $7,900 where he's unlikely to make sense as a pairing to a top-billed quarterback and DFS players may instead gravitate towards a lower price point to find their second QB.

I believe Jennings will reward those who roster him, though. He draws a UVA defense that barely ranks in the top 50 in defensive efficiency per FPI and allows 258 passing yards per game, one of the larger numbers on this slate. 

Jennings himself has been remarkably consistent since taking over the starting gig full-time and has just one game in ACC play with under 20 DK points, and that came in the nail-biter at Duke. He has bounced back with 22.8 and 22.7 DK points over the last two weeks and something even better could be in the offing here.

DJ Lagway ($5,000) Florida vs Mississippi

This is the QB punt play of the week. Lagway is straight-up better than arguably every quarterback priced between him and Morton ($6,500). Now, I get the concerns. The talent has yet to really translate to quality fantasy production to this point. He has only topped out at 14.0 DK points against an SEC foe (Kentucky). Additionally, last week raises some concerns about the hamstring injury impacting his willingness to run. He had zero rushing attempts against LSU.

On the plus side, Florida turned him loose through the air finally. Lagway attempted a career-high 26 passes against the Tigers in the win and though he only completed 50 percent of his passes, he did some damage when those punches landed. 8.7 YPA is really not too shabby. 

Mississippi's defense is admittedly better than LSU's by a decent bit and the pass rush is lively. If Lagway is stationary back there, it could be trouble. I'm willing to hold some faint optimism that Lagway will be a bit more mobile this week and be able to turn in a decent performance. You're not asking for much out of a $5K quarterback, you just need him to outpace a mid-tier wide receiver or running back to justify using the S-Flex spot on him. I'll dabble.

Drew Allar ($7,400) Penn State at Minnesota

Like Jennings, I think the field will be underweight on Allar. It makes sense -- Penn State vs Minnesota has the lowest total and the expected pace here is glacial as Nittany Lion opponents average under 60 plays per game and Gopher foes average just over 61. 

Additionally, Minnesota has the 17th-best defense according to FPI. It's going to be a bit of a slog. That being said, Allar has had really clean numbers all year with a 72 percent completion rate at 9.8 YPA. The touchdown production has sagged (16) relative to last year when he threw 25 scores and I won't overreact to three touchdowns against Purdue last week. 

The Allar-Tyler Warren ($7,700) pairing has been a fruitful one all year and it's one that might be overlooked this week. If you're doing multiple tournament entries, try to get that combo into at least one of your lineups. 

Others to Consider: Garrett Greene, West Virginia ($7,800)

Running Back

Tahj Brooks ($8,900) Texas Tech at Oklahoma State

See above for more on why this matchup is so good for Brooks. Even so, Brooks warrants some more love. Brooks has been a Top 10 back in all of college football this season in terms of points per game. He ranks fourth in the nation in carries with 235 (26.1 per game) and averages 5.0 yards per carry. Brooks hasn't been held under 100 yards all season. 

25-30 carries against Oklahoma State? Sign me up.

Adding on, I might explore a lineup or two with Brooks and Ollie Gordon. You'll have to get creative with the rest of your build but I have a flickering hope that Gordon might tap back into greatness in his last home game.

Devin Neal ($7,500) Kansas vs Colorado

It's not a hot take to say Colorado needs to be careful Saturday. The Buffs are just 2.5-point favorites and Kansas has been playing a great brand of ball lately. 

During their recent 3-1 hot streak that includes two ranked wins, Neal has piled up 62 carries for 342 yards and seven rushing touchdowns. He's added 13 receptions on 15 targets for good measure. Kansas runs the ball almost 60 percent of the time and sticking to that is its best path to keeping the Colorado offense on the sidelines. 

Colorado's run defense has been steady this season but Kansas has a run game that is hard to contain for 60 minutes. Neal is the key for the Jayhawks this week and a strong DFS play to boot.

Duke Watson ($6,000) Louisville vs Pittsburgh

The theory is that Louisville lost Isaac Brown early in last week's game with a shoulder injury and coach Jeff Brohm's comments this week about being "hopeful"... well, I've been around long enough to know that's not worth much. Additionally, Maurice Turner (ankle) has not played since Week 2 so even if he is available, it's unlikely he'd be tapped for much of a role. 

Watson filled in more than ably in Brown's stead with over 100 yards and three touchdowns against Stanford. Side note: what a freaking running back haul by Louisville in this cycle if Brown goes out and the next guy up does that?

Unfortunately, the pricing on Watson is a little steeper than the min-price label he's been tabbed with all year. Still, $6,000 isn't bad for a talented running back with a starter's workload.

This one isn't for the faint of heart, though. Louisville-Pitt is the last game to kick off on this slate so if the injury reports break the wrong way, we might be stuck. You'll have to get your alerts turned on or be watching our top-notch college football news coverage (I'm a company man) for clarification before locking in Watson. 

Others to Consider: Matt Jones, Mississippi ($4,300); Mark Fletcher, Miami ($4,900); Cam Skattebo, Arizona State ($9,400)

Wide Receiver

Below is this week's target report. It's scaled to the last four weeks and filtered by a minimum of 5.5 targets per game and 9.0 YPT in that sample. 

We've already detailed the TTU-OKST pass-catchers so we'll move on to the rest of the pool of wideouts and tight ends at our disposal.

Jeremiah Smith ($7,100) Ohio State vs Indiana

I'm not going to feed the Indiana discourse here. We've all had enough of it this week. I'm just ready for kickoff. All I will say is I think there's a reason the Buckeyes are two-touchdown favorites, and it's that the Hoosiers haven't seen anything close to what Ohio State has in terms of talent. And who better exemplifies that than Jeremiah Smith?

Smith looks like a young T.O. out there and he's only a freshman. He's averaging 13.1 yards per target and is turning nearly 20 percent of his catches into touchdowns. For as good as Indiana's pass defense has been -- and it's been great -- I'm not sure Smith is getting contained in what sets up as Ohio State's second-biggest game of the year (sorry Michigan, maybe next year).

Samuel Brown ($3,700) Miami vs Wake Forest

Finding the non-Restrepo Miami receiver to get into the end zone Saturday is important. Doing so at under $4K would make it all the better if Brown is the one to make it happen. He's consistently seeing targets with no fewer than four in his last three games. Brown has brought in nine receptions for 112 yards in that span. 

Really, we're just looking for a pulse from somebody in this end of the player pool and Brown offers it in a week where it doesn't need to lean too heavily on its main pieces. I still love the projection for Restrepo, but there's room for someone else to pop. Tight end Elijah Arroyo ($4,300) and Jacolby George ($5,400) also make sense here.

Jordyn Tyson ($6,500) Arizona State vs BYU

This is an interesting test. BYU has one of the best secondaries in the nation, allowing 176 passing yards per game at a 5.5 YPA clip. Arizona State's best receiver has been Tyson, who has taken over a commanding 48.8 target share over the last month with two games of at least 14 looks. In that span he has caught 27 of 40 targets for 356 yards and five touchdowns. I understand the matchup concern but that type of efficiency and market share is too much to pass up at $6,500.

Jacoby Jones ($5,300) UCF at West Virginia

The transfer from Ohio is starting to come on strong down the stretch after UCF seemingly found an answer at quarterback in Dylan Rizk ($6,000). Jones has at least five catches in three straight games and has gone over 20 DK points in two of those. 

West Virginia has the worst secondary on the slate by YPA allowed at 9.1 and was just shredded by Baylor last week in Morgantown. This passing game has enough room for both Jones and Kobe Hudson to produce and you could argue that Jones is clicking better than his counterpart at this stage of the season.

This game has the third-highest total on the slate and it would be wise to get some exposure to it across your lineups. Jones is my favorite among the pass-catching options. 

Others to Consider: Josh Kelly, Texas Tech ($7,000); Caleb Douglas, TTU ($5,000); De'Zhaun Stribling, Oklahoma State ($6,600); Hudson Clement, West Virginia ($4,800); Antwane Wells, Mississippi ($4,800); Tyler Warren, Penn State ($7,700)