College Football DFS: DraftKings CFB Week 11 Main Slate

CFB DFS: DraftKings College Football DFS Week 11 Main Slate

We're into November. Not a chill to the Winter but a nip to the air. The first set of CFP Rankings are out, and we're officially into the stretch run of the season. Crucial games like Texas Tech-BYU and Missouri-Texas A&M garner the national attention on this slate, but there's plenty more on the menu this weekend. 

Let's dive in and get a look at the games and teams to target Saturday.

Slate Overview

Tight Spreads & High Totals

Finding a game with a high over/under where both teams are expected to be competitive is always a primary goal for building our lineups. Games like that create a great scoring environment on both sides with little worry about the star players being pulled, like we do when a game gets lopsided. 

Here are this week's games to target:

Duke (-8.5) at Connecticut (63.5)

Basketball's the first thing that comes to mind when these schools match up, but they should deliver a quality product on the gridiron this weekend, too. The Blue Devils are viewed as the betting favorites to win the ACC at some shops -- what a world -- and UConn is already bowl eligible with five wins in its last six games. 

The total sits at 63.5 -- the highest on the board by nearly a full touchdown. It absolutely needs to be on your radar. Duke's Darian Mensah ($9,500) and Connecticut's Joe Fagano ($9,200) are pricey but likely worth it in this scenario. It'll be tricky to use both in the same lineup but it's doable if you hunt for value with your stacking options.

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I think the best way of getting at this game is using both the quarterbacks plus Skyler Bell ($6,900) and Que'Sean Brown ($4,500), which leaves you with about $5K per player to round out the rest of your build. That's workable. 

TCU (-7.5) vs Iowa State

This has the makings of a classic Big 12 track meet. TCU's defense rates poorly by the advanced metrics (49th in SP+, 35th in FEI) and the Frog offense is top 30 in those metrics as well. Iowa State's defense rates alright by those same metrics but the TCU offense should have the upper hand, while TCU's shaky defense raises the Cyclones' projection on offense.

Josh Hoover ($8,800) should be able to return value here and has some reliable targets like Eric McAlister ($7,000), Jordan Dwyer ($5,400) and Joseph Manjack ($5,200). Rocco Becht ($7,800) sets up nicely on the other side with TCU allowing the second-most passing yards per game on this slate, but Iowa State is harder to stack. Four pass-catchers have target shares between 20% and 13.5% over the last month, giving you some decent floor options but no real target monsters. Chase Sowell had 12 targets last week but the hot hand in this offense never seems to stay hot. 

Georgia (-9.5) at Mississippi State

This one could get interesting. 11 am local kick in Starkville. Cowbells clangin'. Two great offenses and two suspect defenses. 

Gunner Stockton ($8,300) isn't the screaming value he was when he was $7,400 for the Ole Miss game, but he's still palatable. Miss State has one of the leakiest P4 defenses, allowing 35 PPG to SEC opponents. Stockton has shown he can orchestrate a prolific offense. Coming off a hard-fought game against Florida, this will be a welcome matchup for him. Stockton also has an underrated rushing floor; over the last three games, Stockton has accounted for 28 percent of Georgia's rushes.

The UGA run game is a tough solve. They have a deep rotation, but it seems that Nate Frazier ($5,700) and Chauncey Bowens ($5,300) eat up the bulk of the carries. Bowens would be my pick between the two, thanks to his edge in explosiveness. 

Zachariah Branch ($5,100) is still undervalued relative to his 30% target share dating back to Week 4. He hasn't scored a touchdown in that span, but 34 catches in that span suggest he might be a little unlucky in that regard. He has at least eight catches in each of his last three games. Dillon Bell ($3,300) has gotten a little more usage of late and Noah Thomas ($3,100), who caught his first touchdown last week, looks good replacing the injured Colbie Young. 

Mississippi State, meanwhile, plays with decent tempo (71 plays per game) and has an offense that can be dangerous when Blake Shapen has time. Georgia has had a toothless pass rush this year while Miss State has allowed a whopping 29.0 sacks (128th in FBS). Stoppable force vs Movable Object. If Miss State can protect Shapen here and he continues on his 35 attempt/game clip, there could be enough juice on their side to have some DFS value as well. Former Georgia wideout Anthony Evans ($5,600) and Brenen Thompson ($5,700) have been great this season and command a strong 52 percent combined target share. Miss State should be going to the air 35+ times Saturday, with at least half of those going to either Evans or Thompson. We like that type of reliability. Tight end Seydou Traore ($3,400) is a decent punt play who draws a 14% target share and has scored three touchdowns.

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Quarterbacks

We discussed some of the heavy hitters on the slate -- Darian Mensah, Joey Fagano, Gunner Stockton, Josh Hoover -- earlier.  This slate is loaded with good options, though, so let's find some more good plays.

Noah Fifita, Arizona ($7,300) and Jalon Daniels, Kansas ($8,100)

This is another promising game for our purposes, with great implied totals on either side and pristine weather conditions out in Tucson. Arizona's defense actually has a bit of backbone, while Kansas' is pretty putrid according to the metrics. Either way, both teams should challenge for 30 points.

Fifita has been dialed the last two weeks. A combined 35 for 45 for 482 yards (10.7 YPA) and six touchdowns is ridiculous. It won't be as easy against Kansas as it was against Colorado (4 TD on 19 attempts) but we can feel good about him having a strong outing here. 

Daniels, meanwhile,  has been remarkably efficient this season, even if the raw fantasy production hasn't been there. This could be a good buy-low opportunity. He's completing 66.7 percent of his passes at an 8.2 YPA clip with a 20:3 TD:INT. 

He hasn't crossed the 20 DK-point mark in four games. I'm not saying he's due... but he kind of is. He also has just one rushing touchdown in his last 62 attempts (5-game sample). Arizona has allowed seven rushing touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks. 

Malik Washington, Maryland ($7,700) at Rutgers 

Maryland's unraveling over the last month has been pretty extreme, and will likely lead to most people skipping this game entirely. That's totally fair, but there might be something here with Washington. 

The freshman quarterback has taken his lumps the last three weeks against Nebraska, UCLA and Indiana but there have still been flashes of brilliance mixed in. This week, he draws a much more favorable matchup at Rutgers, where he'll face a defense that ranks 101st in SP+ defense and 128th in FEI. The sheer whiplash of going from facing Indiana's defense to Rutgers' in a seven day span might be disorienting at first, frankly. Over the course of 60 minutes, Washington is primed for a solid outing. 

I'd recommend playing Washington as a one-off, as Maryland doesn't really have a go-to target or a workhorse running back. DeJuan Williams ($5,000) has come on a bit of late and has some pass-catching upside out of the backfield, however.

GPP Plays

Scotty Fox Jr., West Virginia ($6,200) and Julian Lewis, Colorado ($6,300)

This game is gross in the best way. And these plays are for the sickos. Fox led the 'Neers to a stunning upset win over Houston last week, running for two scores while tossing another. He also has a 301-yard performance against TCU under his belt. Fox has some rushing upside with double-digit attempts in each of the last three weeks as well. That could be an important detail against a Colorado defense that allows 215 rushing yards per game.

Colorado has given up the second-most rushing yards to quarterbacks (552) in the country.

With Lewis, we're somewhat flying blind. He's a high-pedigree freshman making his first start on the road after getting thrown to the wolves last week against Arizona. Lewis' inexperience opens the door for both a conservative game plan and some freshman mistakes. It also means West Virginia doesn't have much tape on him, and Lewis has the talent to make the 'Neers weak secondary pay. 

Both of these guys are relative risks, but risks that are baked into the price tag. Using either or both opens up a ton of salary to load up at other spots. There's a chance this game pops off and goes well over the 53.5 total. To me, this game has much more DFS appeal than, say, Texas Tech-BYU or Vandy-Auburn. Don't just skip it because it lacks conventional star power. 

Running Back

Before we dig into the plays, I want to dig into the top-billed RB on the board, Duke's Nate Sheppard.

Sheppard has taken command of the Duke backfield after a frustrating committee experiment earlier in ACC play. Duke leaned on him for 59 percent of the carries (13) in the win over Duke and he has seen double-digit carries in five straight weeks.

The overall volume is tough to square with this price tag, though. $8,200 is usually reserved for guys we can bank on getting 20+ touches. Maybe that's in play here, though Duke's offense is built around Mensah and the pass game (55% pass rate). The main cases for Sheppard are his spot on the depth chart and the matchup vs a soft UConn rush defense. Maybe the field will have similar concerns and we'll see Sheppard come in with low roster %. I might dabble, but he's not a core play for me this week. 

Diore Hubbard, West Virginia ($4,800) vs Colorado

Hubbard is starting to come on strong, having racked up 29 (!) carries for 108 yards and a score against Houston last week. The West Virginia RB depth chart is a mess behind him with injuries abound, so we should see Hubbard gett plenty of cracks at a much more vulnerable Colorado defense. 

Colorado allows 215 rushing yards per game on 5.28 YPC. When scaled to conference play, it's 228 on 5.5 YPC. If Hubbard gets the same workload again this week, look out. 

Chauncey Bowens, Georgia ($5,300) at Mississippi State

A good way for Georgia to keep Mississippi State's offense off the field Saturday (and therefore Georgia's defense) is getting the run game going. Georgia runs it 57.8 percent of the time, though it's pretty well distributed between the likes of Bowens, Nate Frazier, Gunner Stockton and even Josh McCray. 

Bowens has as many carries as Frazier on the season (50) and 120 more yards. He is the best option in this backfield right now. Mississippi State allows 182.6 rushing yards per game to SEC opponents. Look for Bowens to get his stats Saturday even if it's only on 10-12 carries.

Others to Consider

• DeJuan Williams, Maryland ($5,000)

Wide Receiver

Here's this week's target cheat sheet. I filtered it to receivers on this slate with at least a 20% team target share who also average at least 9.0 yards per target. I also narrowed the sample to Week 6 through Week 10 to get a healthy sample while also giving weight to players who are clicking right now. Those are fairly arbitrary thresholds, but they still tend to paint a good picture of who is A.) Getting Volume and B.) Maximizing It.

UConn's Skyler Bell ($6,900) will be immensely popular this week thanks to a soft price tag combined with his ridiculous production. He is Mr. Everything in UConn's passing game, commanding 32 percent of their targets at an 11.0 YPT clip over his last four games. He has an absurd seven touchdowns in that span as well. Adding to the appeal is Duke's terrible pass defense which allows 8.8 yards per pass attempt. 

So, there's your chalk play. Here's the rest.

Anthony Evans ($5,600) and Brenen Thompson($5,700), Mississippi State

Georgia might not give up a ton of explosive plays, but it's a defense that's pretty easy to throw on. SEC opponents are completing 62.4 percent of their passes at an 8.0 YPA clip on the Dawgs. Mississippi State's best hope is to test this secondary and toothless pass rush through the air, because it's unlikely to get much success on the ground here. 

Evans and Thompson have each drawn 27 percent of the targets in the last month, with Thompson checking in with slightly better numbers (11.2 YPT, 3 TD) while Evans has had more receptions (26) at a strong 9.4 YPT figure.

The way I see it, both of these guys are going to get fed Saturday against a vulnerable UGA pass defense. They should be PPR gold mines, and I wouldn't be shocked if both reach paydirt. 

Zachariah Branch ($5,100) and Noah Thomas ($3,100) stand as solid plays on the Georgia side of this matchup. 

Omarion Miller, Colorado ($4,800) at West Virginia

The $4,800 figure does not square with Miller's production of late. 24% target share. 11.5 YPT. Five touchdowns in his last four games. 

The field might avoid Colorado's offense entirely and I can't blame them. However, this could set up as a nice leverage spot if Colorado does show up in Morgantown with a revitalized offense led by Juju Lewis. 

The two connected on a nice touchdown last week, and I suspect that Lewis will be trusted to turn it loose a fair bit in this spot. 

Others to Consider

• KJ Duff, Rutgers ($6,100)
• Caleb Douglas, Texas Tech ($6,400)
• Emmanuel Henderson, Kansas ($5,900)