This article is part of our College Football Picks series.
Oregon vs. Liberty Betting Odds and Best Bets
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Upstart and undefeated Liberty will look to shock the world early on New Year's Day. The Flames come to Arizona a perfect 13-0, covering the spread at a 9-4 clip with the over hitting in eight of their outings. Oregon is off a Pac-12 Championship loss to Washington, where they were heavily favored. The Huskies are the only team to beat the Ducks this year, with Oregon sitting at 11-2 SU, 9-3-1 ATS, with the over cashing just five times in their 13 games.
Oregon vs. Liberty Betting Odds
Spread: Oregon -16.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
Total: 66.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
Moneyline: Oregon -720 (FanDuel Sportsbook); Liberty +600 (Caesars Sportsbook)
The spread is the most consistent piece we've got, universally sitting at 16.5 across all books, with just some minor variances in odds. It opened at 14.5 and has gone as high as 18.
The total is a bit all over the map as of Friday morning. FanDuel currently lists it at its lowest number, and we've got a 1.5-point bump at DraftKings, where it's currently 68, the highest of any book. It opened at 65.5 and has slowly trended upward.
Moneyline-wise, Oregon is really only an option to add to other picks for a parlay boost, which will be minimal. They've been as high as -950, and there's a wide range of numbers out there. FanDuel is the best spot to consider, while all other sites have them at -800 or greater, with Caesars being the highest spot at -900. As such, it comes as no surprise the best place to back a major upset is at Caesars, where the Flames are currently +600. The Flames have been as high as +625, but sit in the 500s across all other books, with FanDuel offering the worst spot to take this at +500. I don't hate an incredibly small play on the Flames for entertainment only.
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Oregon vs. Liberty Betting Picks
This truly is a David vs. Goliath matchup. Liberty can't be faulted entirely, but they have statistically the worst strength of schedule in the country. They did face six bowl teams, but that's the likes of New Mexico State, Bowling Green, Western Kentucky, Old Dominion and Jacksonville State; not exactly murder's row.
It will be strength on strength when both teams are running the ball. Liberty leads the nation in rushing offense at 302.9 ypg, and Oregon is 30th at 183.9. Oregon will counter with a 10th-ranked run defense that's surrendered just 97.5 ypg, while the Flames allow just 111.6 ypg, ranking 19th. But again, consider the opponents.
Both teams can be vulnerable against the pass, and Liberty's 101st-ranked pass defense is particularly concerning, given the lack of competition.
The total is an interesting number for this battle. We noted that Oregon's games have gone over the total just five times. That's largely because when they win, they're winning big and not giving up points. They allow just 17.3 ppg, five times holding opponents in single digits, and the thought is they won't want to embarrass the Flames if things are clicking throughout the game. That's my heavy lean here.
But it's just difficult to come to a path for the Flames to keep this close. They'll be at full strength, and Oregon won't have their top receiver in Troy Franklin. But the Ducks just have too much on both sides. We've seen weird things happen in bowl games with matchups like this, and Liberty will pull out all the stops. It just won't be enough.
Oregon vs. Liberty Best Bet: Oregon (-16.5) at FanDuel Sportsbook
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Oregon vs. Liberty Predictions
Liberty QB Kaidon Salter is fun to watch. He accounted for 43 total touchdowns and ran for over 1,000 yards. He's a former Tennesee recruit, so the talent is real. I expect he'll have his moments of brilliance.
We can question Oregon's motivation, too. They were likely a win away from being in the playoff and now face an opponent they may never see again. But they still have Heisman finalist Bo Nix looking to wrap his career up successfully. I think the Flames flash early, but can't match points for four quarters and the Ducks get enough big plays against the Flames suspect defense to stretch this out. Oregon will call off the dogs and make the score closer than it can be.
OREGON 38-17.
