College Football Picks: Georgia vs. Alabama SEC Championship Game Best Bets
The Georgia Bulldogs and Alabama Crimson Tide meet up in Atlanta, GA to decide the SEC Champion. Not only will this game decide the SEC, but it will also shape the College Football Playoff. Georgia enters at 11-1 and is seemingly locked into the playoff, but seeding is at stake as a with a win this week, the Bulldogs would likely jump the loser of the Big Ten Championship into the #2 seed. As for Alabama, everything might be at stake this week, and I'll get into that in a bit.
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SEC Championship Game: Georgia vs. Alabama Betting Odds
Spread: Georgia -1.5 (DraftKings Sportsbook); Alabama +2.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
Total: Over 47.5 (BetMGM), Under 48.5 (Caesars Sportsbook)
Moneyline: Georgia -124 (FanDuel Sportsbook), Alabama +115 (BetMGM)
Not much movement since this one opened, and it's likely to stay near where it's at, as it will take a lot, especially on Georgia's side, to get this number up to three. The total moved a full point on Thursday, from 47.5 in the morning to 48.5 by the afternoon.
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SEC Championship Game: Georgia vs. Alabama Betting Picks
As mentioned earlier, a lot is at stake this week. First off a conference championship, which, in the age of the CFP is maybe not quite as valuable as it once was, but beyond that, this game will help shape the CFP rankings and perhaps the field itself.
Georgia's motivation here is simply to win the SEC Championship. Moving from the #3 seed to the #2 seed doesn't really mean that much, but a loss could mean the Bulldogs lose the first-round bye, which would be important to them.
Alabama certainly has more to play for, as this could be its final game of the season (bowl game notwithstanding) if things go poorly. There is debate about what a loss will do to Alabama's playoff fate, and most seem to think a standard loss will not move them out of the field, but a blowout loss would be a different story. A blowout loss would look bad (eye test), and the 'Tide would be the only team with three losses in the field if they were to make it. With a deserving Miami team just outside the top-12, it would be tough to keep Alabama ahead of Miami in that scenario. Another scenario is that BYU beats Texas Tech, in which case it would be Alabama with three losses vs. Notre Dame with two losses, and considering the committee had Notre Dame ahead of Alabama for most of the year, I doubt they'd let a three-loss 'Bama team in over a two-loss Irish team. All that to say, Alabama has more to play for this week than just another SEC Championship.
That is what's at stake, but let's take a look back at when these teams met up in September. Alabama went into Athens and won by three points, but that doesn't really tell the whole story. Alabama controlled that game the entire way, and the 'Tide was unfortunate to win by just three points. With that said, it's clear that Georgia has improved since late September, as it beat Ole Miss and Texas after that loss.
It's hard to say if Alabama has improved since that game. It's more likely that the 'Tide are a very similar team now to what they were in September.
On paper, there isn't much of an edge. Alabama is better at stopping the run than the pass, but Georgia likes to run more than pass. Georgia is great at stopping the run, but 'Bama doesn't run the ball much. What this game will come down to is Georgia's ability to slow Alabama's air attack.
While it's hard to say if Georgia's pass defense has improved since late-September, one thing is certain: the Bulldogs have seen how Alabama wants to attack them, and they'll have the advantage of adjustments. If Alabama comes in with the same attack, Georgia should have some answers. It will depend on Alabama's ability to make its own adjustments that will tell the tale.
I generally lean towards the team that didn't play its best in the first matchup, so with two evenly matched teams, I'm going to take Georgia this week, as I think the Bulldogs will have a better game plan.
SEC Championship Game: Georgia vs. Alabama Expert Pick: Georgia -1.5 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
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SEC Championship: Georgia vs. Alabama Predictions
As mentioned earlier, these teams have already played this season, so early on, there will be a feeling-out process to see what adjustments have been made since the first meeting.
Georgia will have worked on slowing the 'Tide's passing attack, which will likely lead to some early-game struggles for 'Bama. On the other side, Georgia will likely pull out some tricks that Alabama did not see in the first game, so I'm expecting the Bulldogs to get out to an early lead.
Alabama will make some adjustments, and this game should hit its stride heading into halftime. From there, it's anyone's game, but I'm expecting a better version of the Bulldogs to show up for the entire game and especially in the second half, so in the end, Georgia gets the necessary stops to win the game.
Georgia 27 - Alabama 21
SEC Championship Game: Georgia vs. Alabama Player Props for Saturday, December 6
Gunner Stockton, QB, Georgia - Over 195.5 Pass Yards (PrizePicks)
This game is all about adjustments, right? Well, in the first game, the Bulldogs had no success through the air, but they averaged 6.9 yards per carry. Guess where Alabama's focus will be on defense this week? Yep, the 'Tide are going to force Georgia to beat them through the air, and as long as Stockton hangs in there and doesn't take off running 15 times this week, he should hit this number. Sure, Stockton only threw for 70 yards this past week, but that was an aberration; prior to that, Stockton had a streak of six games in a row over this number.
Ty Simpson, QB, Alabama - Over 32.5 Pass Attempts (Underdog)
Alabama is not going to be able to run the ball in this game, and the 'Tide have shown that they have no problem abandoning the run when needed. Simpson had 38 pass attempts in the first meeting, and Alabama was in the lead the entire game! The Tide know the key to beating Georgia is through the air, so whether it's working or not, they are going to keep throwing the ball.
