This article is part of our College Football Picks series.
Peach Bowl Picks: Texas vs. Arizona State
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The Texas Longhorns meet the Arizona State Sun Devils in round two of the college football playoff. Arizona State enters off a bye in round one, while Texas comes in off a win over Clemson in the first round.
Texas vs. Arizona State Betting Odds for the Peach Bowl
Spread: Texas -12.5 (Caesers Sportsbook); Arizona State +13.0 (ESPN BET)
Moneyline: Texas -480 (FanDuel Sportsbook); Arizona State +400 (BetMGM)
Total: Over 51.5 (BetMGM); Under 51.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
The line opened at Texas -13.5, but it's settled into Texas -12.5 in most places. The total opened right around its current spot.
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Texas vs. Arizona State Betting Picks for the Peach Bowl
An interesting quirk of the CFP setup is that the team that received a bye in round one is a big underdog in round two. There weren't many things to agree upon when the bracket was revealed for the first-ever 12-team playoff, but one thing was certain: the four teams receiving byes weren't the four best teams in the playoff. None of that matters now, however, as the remaining teams get a chance to prove who is best on the field.
Let's start with Texas since we've got some recent tape on the Longhorns. The knock on Texas entering the playoff was a lack of quality wins, and while the Longhorns won their first-round game, Clemson wasn't exactly a powerhouse this season, so in that sense, the Longhorns are still lacking a high-quality win. Here's the thing about that, though: there aren't a lot of quality teams, period, so the odds of having multiple quality wins are pretty low. Oregon is the one exception, but then again, the Ducks are the only team in the country that could claim to be a great team at this point, but I digress.
ASU's resume is not great. The Sun Devils did have a few good wins, but they also had a couple of inexplicable losses to Texas Tech and Cincinnati. Those losses show us how bad they are at their worst, but how good can this team be? Well, they beat a pretty good BYU team and thumped Iowa State in the Big 12 Championship, so their ceiling appears to be pretty high, but this will obviously be a step up in class.
When looking at the numbers, Texas has a clear statistical edge. The Longhorn defense is 2nd in the nation against the run and 11th against the pass. ASU, meanwhile, is 64th against the pass and 27th against the run. On offense, Texas is 17th through the air and 48th on the ground, while ASU is 69th through the air and 23rd on the ground.
The last time we saw the Sun Devils, they were running all over Iowa State. The lasting image was that of Cam Skattebo shedding tackle after tackle on his way to 170 yards on the ground. The problem for ASU, however, is that this Texas run defense is unlike anything they've seen all season. If the Sun Devils can't get Skattebo going, it could be a long day. The given here appears to be the Texas offense; the Longhorns are going to get theirs. Even if a bit erratic, Texas generally finds a way to get points, and ASU's defense is decent, but the Sun Devils haven't faced an offense like this all year.
I can see this game playing out in one of two ways. ASU gets off to a good start, some belief is solidified, and this becomes a 60-minute game. Or, Texas comes out on fire, and ASU is left stunned, and this game turns into a blowout. Either way, I think Texas wins, but there are more avenues for ASU to cover than not, so I'm going that route.
Texas vs. Arizona State Expert Pick: Arizona State +13.0 (ESPN Bet)
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Texas vs. Arizona State Predictions for the Peach Bowl
Texas seemingly has the edge in just about every facet here, but ASU has been on a roll for two months, and I don't expect the Sun Devils to collapse suddenly because this is a big spot. With that said, I wouldn't be surprised to see ASU get off to a bit of a slow start, much like Clemson, but also like Clemson; I expect a bounce back from the Sun Devils.
There's a chance that Texas is just too good for ASU, but even if that's true, it's not below Texas to let a lesser team stick around a bit too long and make things interesting. I expect Texas to get out to a lead, but it won't be as large as it was against Clemson. ASU will stay just close enough to make the Longhorns nervous and perhaps force a mistake or two. If the game does get away from ASU a bit, there's always the back door cover.
