College Football Picks: Iowa vs. Vanderbilt Best Bets
The Iowa Hawkeyes and Vanderbilt Commodores travel to Tampa, Florida, to take part in the ReliaQuest Bowl on New Year's Eve. As we approach the new year, we start to get into the bowl games that teams are actually happy to be a part of. Prior to this, we've had a lot of consolation matches with maybe one or two teams happy they are playing, but for the most part, it's an end to a mediocre season. That's not the case here as both teams played to or above expectations this season.
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Iowa vs. Vanderbilt Betting Odds for the ReliaQuest Bowl
Spread: Vanderbilt -5.5 (Caesars Sportsbook); Iowa +5.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
Total: Over 46.0 (Caesars Sportsbook), Under 46.5 (BetMGM)
Moneyline: Vanderbilt -205 (FanDuel Sportsbook), Iowa +180 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
This line opened at Vanderbilt -4 and has crept up to -5.5 in most spots. Perhaps this is the SEC bias coming into play, or maybe it's the high-profile QB Diego Pavia moving the line. Whatever the case, the public is definitely siding with Vanderbilt. The total opened at 49.5 and quickly dropped to its current number of 46.5. The weather is not a concern on Wednesday, so this is likely being driven by Iowa's tendency to slow the game down and play strong defense.
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Iowa vs. Vanderbilt Betting Picks for the ReliaQuest Bowl
I mentioned earlier that both teams played to or above expectations this season, but Vanderbilt definitely played above expectations this year.
Led by Heisman runner-up Diego Pavia, the Commodores had one of their best seasons in decades. A 5-0 start was derailed by a loss at Alabama, but they quickly rebounded with wins against LSU and Missouri. That momentum was halted by a loss at Texas, however, a loss that ultimately ruined any hopes for a CFP berth. They closed out the season with a win over Tennessee, which was their fourth win over a ranked team this season. It sounds great on paper, but two of those four wins against ranked teams were against teams that proved to be frauds by the end of the year, so all in all, two solid wins and one near-miss against a legit team.
The Hawkeyes did not exceed expectations this season; rather, they did what they normally do, which is beat the teams they should beat and lose to the ones they're expected to. In all, there were four losses (all to ranked teams) and eight wins (all non-ranked teams). This season seemed a little different, however, as the Hawkeyes were able to shake their reputation of a punchless offense (well deserved), but in the end, it didn't result in more wins than in previous seasons.
Those were the results, but what were the numbers behind those results?
Even though the offense was improved, Iowa was still led by its defense. Iowa ranked in the top 20 against the run and the pass. On the offensive side, the passing game lacked some punch, but the running game did its part, coming in at 43rd in yards per game. More importantly, Iowa ranked in the top-60 in points per game, which doesn't sound great, but it was quite an improvement from the previous few seasons.
Vanderbilt was well balanced on offense, ranking 13th in passing yards per game and 32nd in rushing yards per game. The defense was a different story though, as the Commodores were stout against the run (15th in yards per game), but 120th against the pass.
It's the Vanderbilt defense that is going to tell the tale of this game, and that's good news for the Commodores. Vanderbilt is vulnerable to teams that can throw the ball; their two losses came against Alabama and Texas, but as you can see from the stats above, Iowa is not one of those teams. Iowa's pass game is better than it was this past year, but that's not saying much. If Vanderbilt can slow the run game down, it's going to be a long day for the Hawkeyes.
I was thinking about going with the money line, but Vanderbilt won all 10 of its games by seven points or more this season, so I'll go with the spread here.
Iowa vs. Vanderbilt Expert Pick: Vanderbilt -5.5 (Caesars Sportsbook)
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Iowa vs. Vanderbilt Predictions for the ReliaQuest Bowl
I'll start by stating that I'm a little uneasy laying this many points against an Iowa team that generally plays everyone tough, but I think the matchup just isn't good for the Hawkeyes. That is, unless they can find a passing game.
Since we haven't seen much of a passing game, this game sets up as one of frustration for the Hawkeyes. I'm actually expecting Iowa to come out passing in this game because they know that Vanderbilt will do everything to stop the run. It might catch the Commodores off guard, but eventually Iowa will have to get the ground game going, and I don't think that's going to happen, and then we'll get a one-dimensional Hawkeye team, which isn't going to work.
As for the other side of the ball, Pavia is going to be a problem for Iowa. The Hawkeyes are good at taking away what you do best, but with Pavia, that could be the run or the pass, depending on the day. I think he's going to frustrate the Hawkeye defense all da,y and that's going to be the difference.
Vanderbilt 27 - Iowa 17
Iowa vs. Vanderbilt Player Props for Wednesday, December 31st
Diego Pavia, QB, Vanderbilt - Over 50.5 Rush Yards (Underdog)
I tried to find a comp to Pavia in Iowa's schedule and the only one that came close was Fernando Mendoza. In that game, Mendoza had a good balance of pass and run and that's what I'm expecting here. Iowa is stronger against the pass than the run, so I'm expecting plenty of scrambling yards from Pavia. We shouldn't have to worry too much about sacks either as Iowa only averaged 1.7 sacks per game this season.
Mark Gronowski, QB, Iowa - Over 21.5 Pass Attempts (Underdog)
This pick is based on my theory that Iowa is going to open it up a bit. If you look at the game logs, you aren't going to find many games where Gronowski went over this number, but when Iowa was in a tight game or trailing, the Hawkeyes did throw the ball. Gronowski went over this number against Iowa State (loss) and Indiana (loss) and in games where he went under, there were good reasons to not throw the ball. I don't think that will be the case in this game as I'm expecting the Commodores to hold up well against the run, forcing Iowa to throw.
