College Football Picks: USC vs TCU Alamo Bowl Best Bets
The USC Trojans (9-3) and the TCU Horned Frogs (8-4) will meet in the climate-controlled environment of the Alamodome in San Antonio for the 33rd edition of the Alamo Bowl. Both teams won their final regular-season games, but TCU won its final two games to get them into a bowl of this caliber. Quality wins for the Horned Frogs included victories against SMU and Houston, while the Trojans prevailed against two ranked opponents (Iowa and Michigan).
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USC vs TCU Betting Odds for the Alamo Bowl
Spread: USC -4.5 (DraftKings Sportsbook), TCU +4.5 (BetMGM)
Total: Over 56.5 (DraftKings Sportsbook), Under 56.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
Moneyline: USC -180 (FanDuel Sportsbook), TCU +160 (BetMGM)
The spread has bounced back and forth with a two-point deviation over the course of the week. Late public money will determine whether the line settles at the low end (3.0) or high end (7.0) of this margin. The projected total has decreased gradually over the course of the week, and the most likely outcome at game time is a slight upward course correction. The moneyline reads pretty well if you favor a TCU upset.
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USC vs TCU Betting Picks for the Alamo Bowl
Before we dive deeper into this matchup, we need to take a look at who's in and who's out for both teams.
USC: WR Makai Lemon, WR Ja'Kobi Lane, TE Lake McRee
TCU: QB Josh Hoover, WR Jordan Dwyer
Hoover is probably the most notable player to miss the bowl game, as the Horned Frogs will be forced to go with backup Ken Seals at quarterback. Although Jayden Maiava is back to direct USC's offense, he's without his two biggest playmakers, which will test USC's depth at wideout.
How will Seals fare in the starting role? Although he hasn't logged many snaps with TCU, he was once Vanderbilt's starting quarterback in the pre-Pavia era, and he's got big-game experience against quality SEC teams. As long as the TCU's offensive line is dialed in, Seals should be able to lean on the run game and get vertical enough to be effective.
What will be evident quickly is the number of quality players USC has been stashing on its bench. They recruit very well and have a lot of blue chippers entering the program next season, but they also have a lot of talent already on the bench who are eager to make an impact.
The advantage of Maiava at the helm is measurable, and the steady presence of King Miller (and potentially Waymond Jordan) at running back comprises an offensive core that topped the FBS rankings in total offense throughout the season. If Lincoln Riley listens to the numbers instead of his gut, he'll be wise to run the ball early and often instead of testing the pass, as TCU withered down the stretch against offenses that pounded the ball over and over.
Although Maiava is without his pass-catchers, there's depth at that position as well, and he should be able to get behind the secondary a few times. Seals will also have that potential, as USC's safeties are a little handsy and can get in trouble with DPI calls.
This game will ultimately come down to TCU's ability to contain Maiava and the offense. Unfortunately for TCU, they've struggled against fast offense despite significant improvement over the 2024 defensive unit. Seals will be serviceable, but they won't be able to keep up if Maiava plays well.
USC vs TCU Expert Pick: USC -4.5 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
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USC vs TCU Predictions for the Alamo Bowl
We've seen glimpses already, but USC's Tanook Hines will be the wide receiver to watch, as he'll take over the reins as the top wideout and will get looks from Maiava often. We're also going to see plenty of Zacharyus Williams, a 6-2 sophomore who is as speedy as Lemon and has similar size to Lane. Although TCU won't have Jordan Dwyer, Seals will have excellent options in Eric McAlister and Joseph Manjack. The two wdeouts may even exceed their usual totals, as Seals doesn't have the dual-play capability that Hoover possessed. The Horned Frogs are hoping that RB Kevorian Barnes is available, but they will be in good hands with Jeremy Payne, who blew up as the season came to a close. TCU's run game has to succeed to keep this game competitive, but even if they can manage some breakaway plays, matching USC possession-for-possession will be unsustainable.
USC 34 - TCU 17
USC vs TCU Player Props for Tuesday, December 30
RB King Miller, 
USC - Over 0.5 Touchdowns (Sleeper)
Although Waymond Jordan could make an appearance, I still think Miller will lead the way, and he could score with a goal-line run or a short pass.
WR Tanook Hines USC - Over 80.5 Receiving Yards (Underdog)
If Hines can beat single coverage, look out. He could account for up to half of Maiava's passing yardage due to hefty target volume.
