EuroLeague Primer: Round 11 - Thursday

EuroLeague Primer: Round 11 - Thursday

This article is part of our EuroLeague Primer series.

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STATS AND INFO.

THE SLATE

Olympiacos Piraeus at Anadolu Efes Istanbul

Status Check: Alec Peters (OLY), Shane Larkin (EFS), Dogus Balbay (EFS)

The Breakdown: These two teams will square off for the first time since last season's thrilling semifinal matchup that ended with Vasilije Micic burying a late three-pointer to give Efes a berth in the Final, and eventually a second straight title. After getting off to a 2-5 start the two-time defending champions have ran off three straight wins, and the oddsmakers expect them to pick up another, as they are favored by at least 3.5 points. The Greek team should be comfortable playing on the road, however, as they are 4-1 away from home this season. Besides Micic, this game will showcase Sasha Vezenkov and Will Clyburn, who are the league's top two scorers heading into Round 11.

Best Bets for Success: With Micic, Clyburn and Vezenkov on hand you won't find more star power in one place. You also won't find more fantasy points, as Vezenkov is averaging more of those than any other player on the state and Clyburn and Micic are next on the list.

Fantasy Factors: Unsurprisingly, both teams have been pretty top-heavy, but you can consider Rodrigue Beaubois, who topped the 30-point mark on DraftKings in the last two Rounds. Kostas Papanikolaou has popped a couple times recently and could so again with Peters entering at less than 100 percent.

FC Barcelona at ALBA Berlin

Status Check: Nikola Mirotic (BAR), Sertac Sanli (BAR), Alex Abrines (BAR), Sergi Martinez (BAR), Marcus Eriksson (BER), Jonas Mattisseck (BER)

The Breakdown: Barcelona is off to a 7-3 start despite missing Mirotic for all 10 games, but they may not have to do without him any longer, as the reigning MVP has a chance to make his season debut Thursday. Even with Mirotic's status uncertain, the visitors are the biggest favorites on the board, as they are expected to win by 8.5 points. Barcelona has not been as stout away from home as they have been at the Palau, but ALBA is in a free fall, dropping seven straight after getting off to a 3-0 start. This contest will feature a distinct clash in styles, as no team plays at a quicker pace than ALBA and no team is averaging fewer possessions than Barcelona. 

Best Bets for Success: Mirotic probably is not ready to handle a full workload, so it's best to hold off on him on DraftKings. However, he will now be in the mix in the EuroLeague Fantasy Challenge if he is not already on your roster. Nicolas Laprovittola is the top option for Barcelona otherwise. Luke Sikma's versatility keeps him atop the list for ALBA.

Fantasy Factors: Jaleen Smith put up at least 24.5 DraftKings points four times over the last five Rounds, and he is returning some of the most average value on the board. Louis Olinde also ranks among the best in that department. Tomas Satoransky looks pretty good on DraftKings at $8,700, and with Sanli sidelined, Jan Vesely will be in the mix at $7,900.

AS Monaco at LDLC ASVEL Villeurbanne

Status Check: David Lighty (ASV), Joffrey Lauvergne (ASV) 

The Breakdown: These two neighbors will match up for the first time this season, and the visitors enter 12 spots higher in the standings than their counterparts. Monaco also has an 11.2-point edge in net rating, but despite all that, they are favored by only 3.5 points Thursday. If ASVEL hopes to wind up on top they will need to get going on the offensive end, as they rank second to last in offensive efficiency and averaged just 68.8 points over the last four Rounds.

Best Bets for Success: Mike James topped the 30-point mark on DraftKings for the seventh time this season his last time out, and he will be in position to do so again, as ASVEL ranks bottom-3 against guards in points and field goal attempts allowed. It's pretty tough to identify a top option for ASVEL, as over the last four Rounds, only three times did someone on their side top the 20-point mark on DraftKings. However, we will go with Nando de Colo, as Monaco is ceding more points, rebounds, assists and FGA to opposing guards than any other team.

Fantasy Factors: Given Monaco's issues with backcourt players, Retin Obasohan and Parker Jackson-Cartwright both have some appeal in Round 11 -- particularly if Lighty sits. ASVEL ranks first against frontcourt players in both points and FGA, so we'd recommend sticking to the backcourt, especially with both Jordan Loyd and Elie Okobo contributing regularly in November.

EA7 Emporio Armani Milan at Cazoo Baskonia Vitoria-Gasteiz

Status Check: Shavon Shields (EA7), Kevin Pangos (EA7), Luigi Datome (EA7), Stefano Tonut (EA7), Tadas Sedekerskis (BKN)

The Breakdown: This contest will also be a style clash, as no team is scoring more points than Baskonia and no club is putting fewer points on the board than Milan. The Spanish squad went just 2-5 over the last seven Rounds, but they are faring better than the Italian team, who have dropped six straight and occupy the last spot in the standings. The experts expect Milan to score more than they usually do, but not as frequently as their opponents, and Baskonia is favored by at least a handful of points.

Best Bets for Success: Baskonia's best options are all in the backcourt, and all three of Darius Thompson, Markus Howard and Pierria Henry led their team in DraftKings points in one of the last three Rounds. They will all have their work cut out for them Thursday, as no team is allowing guards to score fewer points nor get up fewer shots than Milan. Thompson is the safest of the bunch, as only four players on the DraftKings slate are returning more average value at their price point. The Italian team was struggling to score without Shields, and that task will be even more difficult with their starting point guard sidelined. Naz Mitrou-Long has done all he can to keep his team afloat, and we expect him to lead the charge again Thursday.

Fantasy Factors: It's unclear how many minutes Billy Baron will handle in his first EuroLeague game in nearly a month, but at $6,900, 3x value is well within reach. Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot is also an appealing option at that website at just $7,200. Baskonia's frontcourt is tough to peg at the moment, but Steven Enoch brings a lot of upside to the table at $6,200.

Valencia Basket at Partizan Mozzart Bet Belgrade

Status Check: Klemen Prepelic (VBC), Sam Van Rossom (VBC), Martin Hermannsson (VBC), Millan Jimenez (VBC), Mathias Lessort (PAR), Alen Smailagic (PAR), Aleksa Avramovic (PAR), Balsa Koprivica (PAR)

The Breakdown: The last game on the docket will be a pivotal one, as the winner will climb one game below the .500 mark and the loser will exit Round 11 with a 4-7 record. Partizan is 1-5 on the road but 3-1 at home this season, so it comes as little surprise that they are favored by 6.5 points on their home court. Their chances will take a hit if Lessort is unable to go, though, and Valencia should be able to find some holes in a defense that rates notably below every other club in the league.

Best Bets for Success: Chris Jones is off to an outstanding start with Valencia, and he should get as many opportunities as he can handle Thursday with his club shorthanded in the backcourt. Partizan has typically had three players land in this section, but with Lessort banged up, we will list only Zach LeDay and Kevin Punter for Round 11. It could be another big night for LeDay, as Valencia is still allowing centers to hit around three of every four shots they get up from the field.

Fantasy Factors: Valencia ranks bottom-2 against forwards in all of the points, rebounds, assists, steals and FGA categories, so check out James Nunnally, who is listed as a guard but can be considered a forward -- more so than Punter or Dante Exum. Jared Harper and Xabi Lopez-Arostegui are worth considering given the absences in Valencia's backcourt, and Jasiel Rivero is interesting with his DraftKings price dipping to $7,800.

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Kevin O'Brien plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: FanDuel: kevob100, DraftKings: kevob100.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Kevin O'Brien
Kevin mans the Packers and Brewers beats and moonlights as RotoWire's Director of Operations.
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