EuroLeague Primer: Round 33 - Friday

EuroLeague Primer: Round 33 - Friday

This article is part of our EuroLeague Primer series.

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STATS AND INFO.

THE SLATE

ALBA Berlin at Anadolu Efes Istanbul

Status Check: Luke Sikma (BER), Marcus Eriksson (BER), Tamir Blatt (BER), Louis Olinde (BER), Vasilije Micic (EFS), Rodrigue Beaubois (EFS)

Best Bets for Success: The first game on the final day of action in Round 33 will be a pivotal one for both squads, as Efes can sew up a playoff spot with a win and ALBA can keep their slim hopes alive if they wind up with the victory. Efes is the biggest favorite on the board, but they will be without the reigning MVP and everything is on the line for the German team, so this one could wind up closer than the experts think. With Micic out and Beaubois questionable, Shane Larkin figures to lead the charge for his club. Larkin did not do much scoring in recent Rounds, but ALBA is ceding the most assists and steals to opposing guards, so he won't necessarily need to light up the scoreboard to deliver in fantasy contests. ALBA will presumably go with the same roster they utilized in Tuesday's makeup game, and that means we will list both Maodo Lo and Jaleen Smith like we did that day. Lo is a little costly for our liking on DraftKings, but the over/under on this game is by far the highest on the board and Efes is allowing guards to make as many three-pointers as any team in the league, and that bodes well for ALBA's leading scorer. Smith's price continues to rise, but that's because he tossed up a season-high 31.5 points on DraftKings his last time out and averaged 25.5 points on that website over his last seven appearances. 

DFS Darlings: With both teams down at least one key player and a lot of points expected to be put on the board, the conditions for value plays are quite favorable. Efes ranks last in the league against forwards in all of the points, rebounds, assists and field goal attempts categories, which puts both Oscar da Silva and Yovel Zoosman in prime position to produce. Tim Schneider is the only other forward expected to suit up for ALBA, so he could be worth a dart throw at a near-minimum $3,800. Krunoslav Simon has played a limited role since returning to action last week, but only one player on the board is returning more average value, and his minutes should pick up with Micic on the sidelines. Elijah Bryant also figures to benefit -- particularly if Beaubois sits -- and it won't cost you much to find out at $6,000. Adrien Moerman and Tibor Pleiss won't directly replace Micic, but they could pick up some of the scoring load. Moerman averaged 28.9 DraftKings points over the two games the Turkish team played last week, and Pleiss nearly dropped a double-double when these teams squared off in Round 9.

FC Barcelona at Olympiacos Piraeus

Status Check: Cory Higgins (BAR), Brandon Davies (BAR), Rokas Jokubaitis (BAR), Sertac Sanli (BAR), Pierre Oriola (BAR), Kostas Sloukas (OLY), Tyler Dorsey (OLY), Moustapha Fall (OLY), Kostas Papanikolaou (OLY)

Best Bets for Success: This game pits the team that won the regular season against the squad that sits third in the standings. It loses a little sizzle with several key players out for both squads, but it still figures to be an entertaining contest, as Barcelona won by only one point when these teams squared off in Round 3 and the home team is favored by roughly the same margin this time around. The Spanish squad ranks top-5 against forwards in four of the six counting stats as well as field goal attempts, but Sasha Vezenkov was the only member of Olympiacos' starting five who was not slowed by an illness this week, so he could get even more opportunities than usual. He's been getting a lot of those as it is and has been capitalizing, averaging 29.8 DraftKings points since the start of March. Nikola Mirotic likely secured this season's MVP award with his recent play, which has seen him put up at least 27.0 DraftKings points in four straight. As has been the case lately, the primary concern for Mirotic is playing time, as he has played more than 22 minutes just once since the start of March, and he could again be limited with Barcelona having little to play for. Nick Calathes' minutes could be limited too, but he did average 23.9 points over his last eight appearances and flirted with a triple-double while putting up a season-high 41.3 DraftKings points last team he faced Olympiacos.

DFS Darlings: There aren't really any matchups to target in this one, but due to the absences there should still be some bargains to be found. It's not yet clear if Dorsey and Papanikolaou will play for the Greek team, but with them likely limited at best, Thomas Walkup and Shaq McKissic will be in play. Hassan Martin also looks pretty good with Fall out and the opponent thin at the center spot. Dante Exum has slowed a bit, but he's not too pricey on DraftKings at $8,000, and this seems like a spot for him to get back on track. Alex Abrines and Rolands Smits have both been more involved of late, and neither will run you more than $5,600 on DraftKings.

Crvena Zvezda mts Belgrade at FC Bayern Munich

Status Check: Austin Hollins (CZV), Branko Lazic (CZV), Maik Zirbes (CZV), Corey Walden (BAY), Nick Weiler-Babb (BAY), Othello Hunter (BAY)

Best Bets for Success: Much like the first game of the day, the visitors need a win to remain in the playoff race and the home team can all but punch their ticket to the postseason with a win of their own. The experts are expecting defenses to thrive in this one, as the over/under on this game is nearly 10 points lower than it is in the other three games and is not even close to 150 points. Bayern's roster is unsettled, but there are no doubts about Vladimir Lucic, who topped the 30-point mark on DraftKings his last time out and against Red Star in Round 16. Lucic's price dropped $1,000 on DraftKings for some reason, and at that rate he is returning some of the most average value on the board. Nikola Kalinic remains the top option for the Serbian squad, and he had one of his best games of the season when these teams last met. It could be tough for him to repeat that, though, as Bayern ranks top-3 against forwards in the points, rebounds and FGA departments.

DFS Darlings: The Serbian squad is containing guards as well as anyone in the league, but Darrun Hilliard will be in the mix, as he could be ready to handle a full workload and is returning some of the most value on the board. If Walden remains out, Zan Mark Sisko is cheap enough to consider at $5,100, and Leon Radosevic will be in a similar position of Hunter is again unavailable. Nate Wolters is a little pricey for this section at $9,000, but he did return 3x value at that rate two times over his last five appearances and is a good bet to play 30 minutes. Ognjen Dobric and Luka Mitrovic are also pretty affordable, with neither checking in above $7,500 on DraftKings.

Zalgiris Kaunas at Bitci Baskonia Vitoria-Gasteiz

Status Check: Edgaras Ulanovas (ZAL), Mantas Kalnietis (ZAL) 

Best Bets for Success: Both teams in this contest are playing out the string, but this game will feature one of the hottest players out there in Wade Baldwin, who even with a quiet outing his last time out is averaging 37.0 DraftKings points since the start of March. The Lithuanian team put the clamps on Baldwin back in Round 13, but they have not been too stout against guards this season and Baldwin seems to be on a mission right now. Tyler Cavanaugh and Edgaras Ulanovas have both been producing consistently for Zalgiris, but with the latter's condition uncertain, Cavanaugh seems like the safer option Friday. 

DFS Darlings: With Strelnieks out Friday, Lukas Lekavicius will be a player to go after. Lekavicius has hit the 25-point mark on DraftKings nine times this season and just missed a double-double when these teams last squared off. Joffrey Lauvergne will be a tantalizing target, as at just $5,800 he is returning the most average value on the board. Other than Baldwin, the rest of the players on Baskonia's roster have taken terms sharing the load, but all of Alec Peters, Rokas Giedraitis and Steven Enoch look like potential bargains, as none of them check in above $8,100.

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Kevin O'Brien plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: FanDuel: kevob100, DraftKings: kevob100.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Kevin O'Brien
Kevin mans the Packers and Brewers beats and moonlights as RotoWire's Director of Operations.
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