EuroLeague Primer: Round 9 - Tuesday

EuroLeague Primer: Round 9 - Tuesday

This article is part of our EuroLeague Primer series.

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THE SLATE

Fenerbahce Beko Istanbul at AS Monaco

Status Check: Nemanja Bjelica (FBB), Dyshawn Pierre (FBB), Adrien Moerman (ASM)

The Breakdown: The second double-game week of the season gets underway Tuesday, and the first game up will be a good one, as it features teams that currently sit in first and third place. Monaco is a perfect 3-0 at home this season, which is presumably why they are favored by a point over the club that tops the standings. Monaco is above average when it comes to both offensive and defensive rating, but Fenerbahce has been truly outstanding in both departments, as they lead the league in the former and rank second in the latter. The Turkish team's 18.0 net rating is nearly eight points better than the next best club and 13.9 points better than Monaco, who check in fourth in that category.

Best Bets for Success: The tables continue to turn for first-place Fenerbahce, and in Round 9 we are tilting toward the backcourt, as Monaco ranks top-3 against centers in all of the points, rebounds and field goal attempts categories yet ranks bottom-3 against guards in five of the six counting stats as well as FGA. Both Scottie Wilbekin and Nick Calathes have the skill set to capitalize and did so in a big way last season, with Calathes averaging 34.2 DraftKings points against The Roca Team and Wilbekin averaging a whopping 51.0 points on the same website in his two matchups with Monaco. Mike James remains the guy to go after on the Monaco side, as even though he shot a combined 5-for-21 and averaged 11.0 points over the last two Rounds, he still hit the 25-point mark on DraftKings in both. 

Fantasy Factors: Fenerbahce ranks first against forwards when it comes to points, rebounds and assists allowed and brings plenty of size to the table, so it's probably best to limit your focus to Monaco's backcourt. It's a bit of a toss-up between Jordan Loyd and Elie Okobo, but the latter checks in $700 cheaper on DraftKings and is also slightly less expensive in the EuroLeague Fantasy Challenge. Nigel Hayes-Davis could be even more involved than he usually is if Pierre sits out, and he is pretty affordable in both contests. Carsen Edwards remains a bit hit-or-miss, but he also brings plenty of upside to the table at $5,400.

Crvena Zvezda mts Belgrade at ALBA Berlin

Status Check: Miroslav Raduljica (CZV), Marcus Eriksson (BER), Louis Olinde (BER), Jonas Mattisseck (BER)

The Breakdown: These clubs once found themselves at nearly opposite ends of the standings, but with Red Star going 2-2 over its last four games and ALBA dropping five in a row, they now find themselves separated by just four spots. Despite the recent results, the experts have given the edge to the home team, who are expected to win by 4.5 points. This game will feature a contrast in styles, as the German club ranks second in the league in pace while the visitors are tied for last in the same department. The over/under suggests the game will be played closer to ALBA's speed, but note that a total of only 138 points were put on the board in Red Star's first game under new head coach Dusko Ivanovic.

Best Bets for Success: Luke Sikma sat out in Round 8, but he erased any concerns about his health Sunday, dropping a triple-double in a domestic game. Despite filling a frontcourt spot, Sikma leads all players in assists per (7.0) game heading into Round 9. We've gone away from Ben Bentil a bit in recent Rounds, and he remains a bit pricey on DraftKings, but he will be in position to produce Tuesday against an ALBA team that allows frontcourt players to get up more shots than any other club. 

Fantasy Factors: If this contest is played at the pace that is expected, that would bode well for both Nemanja Nedovic and Luca Vildoza, and neither checks in above $9,000 on DraftKings nor 10.4 credits in the Fantasy Challenge. Luka Mitrovic is also affordable enough to consider in both contests. Every ALBA expected to suit up Tuesday is averaging at least 10 minutes per night, which makes it tough to find potential value plays on their side. No one particularly stands out on DraftKings, but you can look at both Yovel Zoosman and Gabriele Procida in the Fantasy Challenge.

Olympiacos Piraeus at Maccabi Playtika Tel Aviv

Status Check: None

The Breakdown: The next game up will feature two of the most historic clubs in European basketball, and it is expected to be a tight contest, as the visitors are favored but only by a couple points. Something will have to give Tuesday, as Maccabi is 4-1 on its home court while the Greek team has not lost any of the four games it has played on the road. Only one team rates better on the offensive end than Olympiacos, which is not good news for a Maccabi team ranked last in defensive rating. With the game expected to be close, however, both teams figure to put plenty of points on the board.

Best Bets for Success: Fantasy options really don't come any better than Sasha Vezenkov, who is averaging more points in the Fantasy Challenge and on DraftKings than any other player on the slate and is also returning the most average value in the latter contests. Lorenzo Brown and Wade Baldwin IV are at least within shouting distance, though, as both have hit the 25-point mark on DraftKings in all but one appearance this season. They have taken turns leading their team in fantasy points, so though Baldwin doubled up Brown in DraftKings points in Round 8, that won't necessarily happen again.

Fantasy Factors: Moustapha Fall took advantage of a prime matchup his last time out, and he will have another one Tuesday, as Maccabi has ceded the most points, rebounds and FGA to players listed at the center spot. Thomas Walkup ranks 19th on the slate in average DraftKings points yet 30 players are priced above him. Only one team is allowing forwards to score more points than Olympiacos and no team is allowing players at those positions to make more threes, which bodes well for Bonzie Colson, who hit nine triples over the last four Rounds. With both teams at full strength, don't expect many surprises in this one.

Anadolu Efes Istanbul at EA7 Emporio Armani Milan

Status Check: Shane Larkin (EFS), Egehan Arna (EFS), Dogus Balbay (EFS), Shavon Shields (EA7), Billy Baron (EA7), Luigi Datome (EA7), Stefano Tonut (EA7)

The Breakdown: These two clubs have also had their fair share of success over time, but they are both off to slow starts, with each entering Round 9 at 3-5. The experts expect the visitors to get the job done Tuesday, as Efes is favored by a couple points. While they have not won on the road, Milan has not won at home, either. The Turkish team will need to find holes in the league's best defense, but they do have the league's second and third best scorers -- Will Clyburn and Vasilije Micic -- to lean on. The Italian squad will also need to figure things out on the offensive end, as no team has been less efficient on the offensive end. They are hoping to get a boost from Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot, who spent six seasons in the NBA but is set to see EuroLeague action for the first time.

Best Bets for Success: Micic is outproducing Clyburn in both contests, but we actually give the edge to Clyburn in Round 9, as the Italian team is limiting opposing guards to both the fewest points and FGA and ranks near the bottom against forward in the same categories. Micic did average 33.0 DraftKings points in six matchups against Milan last season, though, so that could certainly go the other direction. Five different players have led the home team in fantasy points in the five games Shields has missed this season, so it's anyone's guess who will do so Tuesday. The matchups don't really push us one way or another, so we are going to play a bit of a hunch and go with Naz Mitrou-Long in this section for Round 9. Mitrou-Long led his team in fantasy points his last time out and also led his team or tied for the team lead in points, rebounds and assists in Sunday's domestic game.

Fantasy Factors: Milan will be without three other key players Tuesday, but with Luwawu-Cabarrot joining the mix and the Italian team struggling to score in the first place, it's tough to find much more to like on their side. The same goes for Efes, particularly with no one else on their roster averaging even half as many DraftKings points as their top two players.

Real Madrid at Valencia Basket

Status Check: Guerschon Yabusele (RMB), Rudy Fernandez (RMB), Adam Hanga (RMB), Anthony Randolph (RMB), Carlos Alocen (RMB), Martin Hermannsson (VBC), Millan Jimenez (VBC)

The Breakdown: These two Spanish teams will square off for the first time this season regardless of the competition, and although Real Madrid is on the road they are expected to win by a handful of points. Neither team ranks top-5 in the league in points per game, but don't be surprised if they do a bit more scoring than usual, as both do check in top-5 in the league in the pace department.

Best Bets for Success: Chris Jones -- along with everyone else on his team -- was contained his last time out, but he will be in position to bounce back, as Real Madrid ranks bottom-4 against guards in both points and FGA allowed and is allowing players at those positions to rack up more assists and steals than any other club. Before his Round 8 dud Jones put up at least 29.5 DraftKings points in five straight appearances. Walter Tavares typically does his best work when he gets involved on the offensive end, and look for that to happen Tuesday, as the home team is allowing players at the center spot to make three out of every four shots from the field they put up. We're going to include Dzanan Musa as well, as he averaged 32.0 points in two domestic games against Valencia a season ago.

Fantasy Factors: Vincent Poirier has been coming on and gets the same matchup as Tavares, and he looks pretty good on DraftKings at $6,200. You could even gamble on Eli Ndiaye, who checks in just above the website in both contests. It's unclear which Valencia guard will support Jones best Tuesday, but we've listed Jared Harper a few times this season and still like his upside.

Partizan Mozzart Bet Belgrade at FC Barcelona

Status Check: Aleksa Avramovic (PAR), Balsa Koprivica (PAR), Nikola Mirotic (BAR), Kyle Kuric (BAR), James Nnaji (BAR), Sergi Martinez (BAR)

The Breakdown: Tuesday's action wraps up with another game in Spain, and both teams enter in relatively good form, with Partizan going 4-1 over the last five Rounds and Barcelona going 3-1 over the last four. The Spanish club had a rough go of it -- both on and off the court -- in Round 8, but the oddsmakers are expecting them to get right quickly, as they are favored by just shy of 10 points Tuesday. Don't be surprised if this one ends up closer than expected, though, as the Serbian squad is as healthy as they have been all season and trail Barcelona by only 2.8 points in net rating.

Best Bets for Success: Barcelona is faring pretty well against players at all positions, which makes it tough to separate Partizan's talented trio in Round 9. The safest option on their side seems like Mathias Lessort, as he topped the 30-point mark on DraftKings five times over the last seven Rounds and is averaging nearly six more points in the Fantasy Challenge than his teammates. We couldn't fault you if you go with Kevin Punter or Zach LeDay, though, as both players are averaging 30 minutes per night and rank top-11 on the slate in DraftKings points per contest. Nicolas Laprovittola remains the player to go after for Barcelona, as he led his club in both points and DraftKings points in each of the last three Rounds.

Fantasy Factors: Dante Exum and Alen Smailagic are a little pricey in the Fantasy Challenge, but they are in the mix on DraftKings at $7,500 and $3,800, respectively. Partizan is allowing forwards to score more points than any other team and get plenty involved elsewhere, so we like a motivated Nikola Kalinic's chances to deliver on DraftKings on Tuesday. This could also be a spot for Mike Tobey to get back on track after a quiet Round 8.

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Kevin O'Brien plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: FanDuel: kevob100, DraftKings: kevob100.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Kevin O'Brien
Kevin mans the Packers and Brewers beats and moonlights as RotoWire's Director of Operations.
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