ADP Analysis: AFC North Players to Watch in 2023

I love being a fantasy football analyst. There are three parts to the football year. Starting in July, the intensity of draft season lasts two months. It is always a whirlwind getting everyone ready for summer drafts. And, of course, the regular season is completely different. The structure of every week is perfect for me. Knowing exactly what I will accomplish every day for 18 weeks might be time consuming, but staying in that groove for an extended period gives me stability. That brings us to now! It's the offseason for many. But not for the fantasy analyst. Now is the time to take a 30,000-foot view of the prior season, and it's the time to forecast and look ahead. This weekly article is designed to give everyone a look into what I'm learning while constantly refining my 2023 projections. I hope you enjoy it.

This week, we'll focus on the AFC North with my top observations for each team.

Baltimore Ravens

J.K. Dobbins

Dobbins is a legitimate star, but his workload has been managed. That might have been an organizational plan in 2020 when he was a rookie. In 2022, he was coming back from injury that wiped out all of the 2021 season, so his limited work likely was planned again. However, it's also possible that's just how coach John Harbaugh wants to use his running back, so there's no guarantee he ever gets 20 carries per game. If he did, his numbers likely would explode:

• Based on comments by Dobbins, and him missing the first two games last season, he might not have been 100 percent at any time.
• But he was likely much healthier after his Week 14 return from a six-game absence. In his last five games, including playoffs, he had 70 carries for 449 yards. That's 6.6 yards per carry. And also, Lamar Jackson was injured, so defenses knew the rushing attack was coming.

In my way-too-early February 12-team drafts, he's usually on the board in the fifth round. I am excited to take him as a RB3. Or when I went heavy on WR early, I'll take him as a RB2. He might never see 20 carries a week, but I already know he has an excellent floor when healthy. Of course, it would be nice if he got more targets.

Rashod Bateman

Bateman played in just six games last year due to a foot injury. The decrease in targets from Year 1 to Year 2 was frustrating, as he only had 4.6 targets per game in 2022. His efficiency wasn't great — he caught a little more than half of his targets. But when he caught the ball, he was excellent. His ability to create yards after the catch was enhanced as he saw more downfield targets than in his rookie year. Here are some numbers from his first two seasons:

• His targets decreased from 5.6 per game in 2021 to 4.6 per game last year.
• His yards per target increased 3.6 yards from 7.6 to 11.2.
• His yards per reception increased from 10.2 to 19.0.

He's a prime breakout candidate, but he needs an increase in quality and quantity of targets. Bateman's fantasy value will be at its best if Lamar Jackson is back at QB. He has added risk until that's clarified. He's going as late as the eighth round in 12-team drafts. He's a player I'll be targeting, as his talent is that of at least a top-30 WR.

Cincinnati Bengals

Tee Higgins

His role has been similar each of his three years with the Bengals. He could be a lead receiver on many teams in the league. But with Ja'Marr Chase as a teammate, he'll likely continue to play second fiddle. Regardless, the attention that Chase requires often gives Higgins an added advantage in coverage. Few teams will sell out to stop both Chase and Higgins, but even if they do, Higgins is capable of beating defenses consistently. However, there are games when Joe Burrow doesn't look his way often. Also, Higgins' season-long numbers don't reflect his performance. He was basically an active scratch twice. Of course, the zeros were terrible for fantasy managers, but he played closer to a 1,200-yard producer than a 1,000-yard player when he was actually playing his typical snaps. He still could be an ascending player who might not have reached his ceiling:

• His role has been consistent, as his yards per target has averaged 13.6-14.7 each year of his career.
• He posted at least 90 yards in six games last year. 
• Higgins also had at least six targets in 14 games.

I think the Bengals will find ways to keep improving their passing attack. In an offense that sends a large majority of the targets to its top-two WRs, Cincinnati can easily have two top-15 WRs. At any point that 10 WRs are off the board, Higgins is a player I will consider drafting.

Cleveland Browns

Nick Chubb

He wasn't as elite a performer as he had been for most of his career, but career-high usage last year helped him have an outstanding season. If Deshaun Watson is back to the form he showed in Houston, life should become easier for Chubb. That would happen if defenses have to be worried about the Cleveland passing attack. Although Chubb's yards per carry last year were below his career norms, the offensive line took a step back, which helps explain the drop. He's still one of the best pure runners in the league. In addition, he should have another year or two of peak performance: 

• Chubb is coming off career highs in carries (302 ) and rushing yards (1,525).
• He's still just 27 (he won't turn 28 until late in the 2023 season).
• He had 12 games with at least 80 rush yards (seven with more than 100 yards).
• He also had an 84th-percentile broken tackle rate and 96th-percentile yards-after-contact rate.

In early 12-team drafts, Chubb is often available in the third round. He's still in his prime, and if the Browns offense improves with Watson under center, Chubb could have more room to run than ever. Once the top-12 RBs are off the board, I'm excited to draft him. And when he falls outside the top-24 overall picks, that's a deal I can't pass.

Amari Cooper

The best thing about Cooper's 2022 season was that he played well with two quarterbacks. With a full offseason of work with Watson, it's possible that Cooper has a career year. That would be more likely if Watson plays like he did earlier in his career. And even if the offense runs through Nick Chubb, the quality of the passing attempts, especially against light secondaries, could make a massive difference:

• He had a similar season last year 78/1160/9 (132) to his 2019 season in Dallas. Those were the two best years of his career.
• Cooper has missed just two games the last two years,
• His 18 catches of at least 20 yards was the second most of his career (2016).
• He had five 100-yard games, but just one of those came with Watson at QB.
• Cooper posted at least 40 yards in every game with Watson, but fell under that number only three times all year.
• He recorded at least 70 yards nine times.
• Had double-digit targets seven times.

It seems as if Cooper still has a prime year or two ahead of him. I'm in the camp that Watson struggled with the speed of the game after not being on the field for more than a year and a half. As a result, Cooper's floor should be excellent, but he could easily have a career year. After finishing as a top-10 WR last year, he's being drafted around WR15. I see him as a value outside the top-12 WRs in drafts.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Najee Harris

Harris had a mysterious foot injury in preseason. But after the team let him run on it later in preseason, that seemingly indicated there were no concerns. During the first six games of the year, he averaged 3.6 yards per carry, though he was better after the Week 9 bye. From Week 10 on, he had all six of his 80-plus yard rushing games. He also scored six of his seven TDs during that stretch. With heavier use down the stretch, it's possible the foot injury was an issue early. If that's the case, volume and enough ability to do well should keep him productive:

• He's been a consistent scorer with seven rush TDs and three receiving TDs each year.
• Harris recorded a 78th-percentile broken tackle rate last season.
• Had at least 80 rush yards in six of nine games after the bye.
• He also had all five of his 20-plus rush games after the bye after just two games before the bye with more than 15 carries.

I don't think Harris is an elite runner, but volume is king in fantasy football. Since he had big volume late in the season, I believe his foot injury limited him for the first half of the year. Although I'm not targeting him in early drafts, once the top-12 running backs have been selected, he's definitely worth considering in the next tier of three-to-four RBs.