ADP Analysis: Comparing Best Ball ADPs from DraftKings vs. Underdog vs. Drafters

This article is part of our ADP Analysis series.

This is our second cross-site ADP comparison of the spring, after the May edition revealed a number of trends showing which positions and players were valued most (or least) on different best-ball sites. Results from Underdog and Drafters tended to be more similar, while DraftKings featured some trends that diverged from the other two, including QBs going earlier and WRs later in the first four or five rounds.

The goal here is to figure out where it's cheapest and most expensive to draft certain players, on average, be it due to positional trends or simply an individual whose ADP is highly varied between the three sites.

If you just want to see the numbers, there's a chart at the bottom of this page that shows ADPs from each of the three aforementioned sites, along with the difference between a player's ADP on one site and his average from the other two. 

Differences mean much less in the later rounds, especially because Underdog drafts are 24 picks shorter than those on DK/Drafters. Another note of caution: scoring and roster differences between the sites often don't explain the ADP gaps we see and sometimes are even counterintuitive (e.g. a guy who should be more valuable in half-PPR than he is in full PPR nonetheless goes later on UD than on DK and Drafters).

Later this week, I'll have a second article looking at ADP changes over time on each site (since May) in addition to this one focusing on the current differences between the three (as of mid-to-late July).

Roster/scoring differences to note before we started:

1. Underdog is half PPR; DraftKings and Drafters are full PPR.
2. DK awards three-point bonuses at 100 rushing/receiving yards or 300 passing yards.
3. Drafters subtracts two points for an INT or lost fumble. DK subtracts one point. UD subtracts one for an INT or two for a lost fumble. 
4. UD's default is 18 rounds. On DK and Drafters, it's 20.
5. DK and UD use a playoff system, which amplifies the importance of Weeks 15-17. Drafters' biggest tourneys are simply based on total points throughout the season.

General ADP Trends

Not much has changed here since our last look in mid-May. Wide receivers still tend to be drafted earlier on UD/Drafters and later on DK, while it's the reverse for QBs and RBs. And we again see results from UD and Drafters that are much more similar to each other than the numbers from DK, even though the first two have major differences in terms of both scoring system (half vs. full PPR) and playoff format (no vs. yes).

The trend with WRs is especially strong among young players, as numerous breakout candidates have ADPs on DraftKings at least half-a-round later than on both of the two other sites. A WR-heavy build generally requires less draft capital on DK, while a team that focuses on RBs and a QB early on will find better value on Underdog or possibly Drafters. 

Relative Values on Each Site

Underdog

Relatively Underpriced on UD

• QBs Kirk Cousins, Daniel Jones
• RBs Saquon Barkley, Austin Ekeler, Alexander Mattison, James Conner, Samaje Perine
• WRs Christian Kirk, K.J. Osborn, Isaiah Hodgins
• TEs Dalton Schultz, Sam LaPorta, Tyler Higbee

I'm not surprised to see Ekeler going a bit later on the half-PPR site, but I'm also not sure it's right given how many of his points came from touchdowns the last two years. I'd rather draft him late-first round in half PPR than mid-first in full PPR, no doubt. What I won't do anymore is take him ahead of the top three WRs, Christian McCaffrey or Travis Kelce in any format -- sixth is the earliest I'll bite.

The WRs here are especially worth making note of, given that their position mates tend to go earlier on Underdog. Kirk, Osborn and Hodgins are three of the only WRs going significantly later on UD than on the other two sites.

Relatively Overpriced on UD

• QBs Justin Herbert, Lamar Jackson
• RBs Jonathan Taylor, Javonte Williams, Zach Charbonnet, Jerome Ford, 
• WRs Amari Cooper, Mike Williams, Brandon Aiyuk, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Jordan Addison, Tyler Boyd, Jonathan Mingo, Darnell Mooney, Wan'Dale Robinson, 
• TEs Pat Freiermuth, Irv Smith, Juwan Johnson, Tyler Conklin 

The two QBs listed have similar ADPs on all three sites -- around 34th for Jackson, 54th for Herbert -- while nearly all other quarterbacks go earlier on DraftKings compared to both UD and Drafters.

I wonder how much impact the 18-round format has here, as this is now a multi-year trend and could be interpreted as managers feeling less pressure to use capital on QBs because many are okay with only having two. You could also argue it the other way, of course, i.e., if you only plan to roster two QBs, you're more pressed to make sure they are good ones and more likely to draft top QBs early (which is the opposite of what shows up in Underdog's ADP).

I also find it interesting that half-PPR vs full PPR has no perceptible impact on QB ADPs between the sites, in terms of where QBs are drafted compared to other positions. Full-ppr scoring increases the gap between top players and mediocre ones at RB/WR/TE, while having no impact on QBs.... relatively speaking, that makes QBs slightly more valuable in half-PPR than full PPR if you're weighing one vs. a pass catcher with a top-100 pick.

DraftKings 

Relatively Underpriced on DK

• QBs Deshaun Watson, Anthony Richardson
• RBs Jonathan Taylor, Zach Charbonnet, Damien Harris, Kendre Miller, Jaylen Warren, Tank Bigsby, Devin Singletary, Roschon Johnson
• WRs Chris Olave, Drake London, Brandon Aiyuk, Michael Pittman, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Treylon Burks, Jahan Dotson, Quentin Johnston, Elijah Moore, Zay Flowers, Tyler Boyd, Jameson Williams, Rashod Bateman, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Alec Pierce, Skyy Moore, Michael Gallup, Jayden Reed, Marvin Mims, Rashid Shaheed, Tyquan Thornton, Khalil Shakir, Terrace Marshall
• TEs Kyle Pitts, Pat Freiermuth, Irv Smith, Trey McBride

There's WR value throughout on DraftKings, while Richardson and Watson are the only projected starting QBs with later ADPs on DK than on both of the other two sites (not counting Ryan Tannehill because he often goes undrafted, especially on UD). The yardage bonuses on DraftKings tend to help volume passers more than dual threats, but that doesn't seem to be much of a factor in draft strategy when we look at Quarterback ADPs otherwise.

The other "onesie" spot, tight end, also features earlier ADPs on DraftKings for the most part, though not to the same extent we see with QBs. This makes Pitts and Freiermuth especially noteworthy as trend-breakers, both going earlier on DK than on either of the other two sites.

Relatively Overpriced on DK

• QBs Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen, Joe Burrow Dak Prescott, Tua Tagovailoa, Aaron Rodgers, Jared Goff, Derek Carr, Kyler Murray, Bryce Young
• RBs Derrick Henry, Joe Mixon, Alexander Mattison, D'Andre Swift, James Conner, Alvin Kamara, Brian Robinson, Jerick McKinnon, Jamaal Williams, D'Onta Foreman
• WRs Kadarius Toney, Odell Beckham, Adam Thielen, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Greg Dortch
• TEs Travis Kelce, George Kittle, Evan Engram, Sam LaPorta, Michael Mayer, Dalton Kincaid, Cole Kmet, Taysom Hill

Players on DK are generally more skeptical of rookies, especially WRs, but the trend actually reverses at TE. It's a great rookie class for the position, but history nonetheless favors the Underdog/Drafters crowd here.

Toney might be the most interesting name here, as he's the only young breakout candidate at WR position with an ADP on DraftKings noticeably later than on the other two sites. As mentioned above, the young receivers nearly all go earlier on Drafters and (especially) Underdog.

Drafters

Relatively Underpriced on Drafters

• QBs Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen
• RBs Travis Etienne, Kenneth Walker, Dameon Pierce, Isiah Pacheco, Dalvin Cook, Ezekiel Elliott
• WRs Zay Jones, Adam Thielen,
• TE Dalton Kincaid, Greg Dulcich, Isaiah Likely, Taysom Hill

Drafters uses total points to determine its champions -- rather than the more commonly seen playoff format for Weeks 15-17 -- which means we might expect later ADPs here for players that are more likely to thrive in December than September (e.g. rookie WRs, guys coming back from ACL tears, guys facing suspensions). 

In reality, ADPs tend to be quite similar to those from Underdog, a site with half-PPR scoring and playoffs. Mid/late-season production is relatively more valuable in every best-ball format thanks to the combination of bye weeks and injury/depth depletion as the season move along, but the slant isn't nearly as strong on Drafters.

Kyler Murray, Alvin Kamara and Michael Mayer fit with the logic in going noticeably later on Drafters than on the other two sites, but it doesn't hold up for everyone by any means, as Jameson Williams and a lot of the rookie WRs actually are cheapest on DK (full PPR, playoffs). 

Relatively Overpriced on Drafters

• QBs Anthony Richardson
• RBs AJ Dillon, Rhamondre Stevenson, Antonio Gibson, Chuba Hubbard, Kenneth Gainwell, Zach Evans
• WRs DeVonta Smith, Keenan Allen, Mike Evans, Marquise Brown, Diontae Johnson, Jahan Dotson, Treylon Burks, Courtland Sutton, Rashee Rice, Darius Slayton,

ADP results from Drafters seem closest to my personal rankings/views, as a lot of the guys that go earlier here have been popular picks for me on multiple sites so far (namely Dillon, Gibson, Hubbard, Evans, Dotson, Rice).

Another thing I found interesting was the absence of "overpriced" tight ends. They tend to go earlier on DK than on the other two sites, with numbers between UD and Drafters remarkably similar. This is also somewhat true at other positions; the numbers from UD and Drafters tend to be awfully close.

The Chart - May 11 ADPs 

• Delta columns (Δ) compare ADP from one site to the average ADP from two others. 
  • The 'DK Δ' column, for example, only compares DK ADP's with those from Underdog and Drafters.