ADP Analysis: Moss the Boss, or Devin the Dude?

A short intro leaves more time for actual analysis. And while you're here, why not check out my recent article on the players I've been drafting most often to my best-ball teams?

(All ADP data comes from best-ball contests onBB10)

ADP Up ⬆️

RB James Conner

RB18, ADP 32.4 ➡ RB17, ADP 29.6

Conner's rise has been a slow creep rather than a sprint, lifting him from RB22 in May (ADP 41.7) all the way up to his current spot. I have him ranked a bit higher at RB15, but it's probably fair to say the time has come and gone for picking up Conner at a steep discount. We haven't heard much about rookie fourth-round pick Anthony McFarland from Steelers beat reporters, with Benny Snell instead getting most of the love in the backup competition. 

That's probably a good thing for Conner, because Snell is less of a threat to steal receiving work. If you're looking for an RB with top-five potential outside of the first two rounds of fantasy drafts, Conner is your best bet. The downside is that he's a physical runner with a concerning medical record, kind of like Seattle's Chris Carson.

RB Zack Moss

RB40, ADP 101.2 ➡ RB36, ADP 90.1

The most interesting thing, at least to me, is that Devin Singletary hasn't seen a significant ADP drop, moving from 49.5 to 50.5. One would think that Moss enthusiasm would correspond with Singletary pessimism, but that hasn't really been the case so far. I originally thought the recent Moss hype was coming from Buffalo beat writers, but a closer look suggests it may be more about fantasy analysts focusing on one or two comments. Joe Buscaglia of The Athletic said Moss is "going to be a factor on passing downs" and kind of suggested we may be underestimating the rookie's role. 

I don't doubt Moss will get some playing time, quite possibly including goal-line work, but Singletary was too good last season to not enter Week 1 as the lead guy. Moss was a good pick earlier this spring in the 10th or 11th round; I'm just not too interested in paying the new price when I can usually draft someone like Jamison Crowder or Tyler Higbee instead.

Bonus Note: Another pro-Moss report came through Thursday evening when Matthew Fairburn and Joe Buscaglia of the Athletic relayed that Singletary has fumbled twice already in practice, while the rookie hasn't fumbled at all. It's a small sample, and only practice, but I'll nonetheless be sure to keep an eye on any additional developments. Singletary fumbled only five times on 765 touches in college, but he had four on 180 as a rookie in the NFL. I don't really expect it to be a problem for him going forward, but it's a concern for fantasy managers if his coaches don't really trust him.

RB Chase Edmonds

RB50, ADP 131.2 ➡ RB43, ADP 118.2

Kenyan Drake's foot/ankle injury pushed him down from 13.9 to 14.9, with the bigger impact being increased interest in his backup. Edmonds was a steal at the old price, sitting one injury away from what might've been three-down role (the Cardinals have scrubs behind him in the backfield). I don't think Drake's current injury will be the one to put Edmonds in that role, but there's always a decent chance it happens at some point along the way. Edmonds may not inspire as much confidence as Latavius Murray (ADP 103.5) or Tony Pollard (ADP 121.0), but then Drake isn't nearly as trustworthy as Alvin Kamara or Ezekiel Elliott. I wish I had more Edmonds shares.

RB Damien Harris

RB53, ADP 152.0 ➡ RB48, ADP 126.3

This one is pretty amusing for me. All throughout spring and summer, drafters under-reacted to Sony Michel's durability/efficiency issues creating an opening for Harris. Then, the masses finally bought in based on some camp hype, only to see Michel return from the PUP list Wednesday. I still thinks Harris is a good pick in standard/shallower fantasy leagues where upside is all that really matters in the late rounds, but most of the value has been sucked out in best ball when he's being drafted ahead of guys like Duke Johnson, who would seem to have a much higher floor. It sounds like the New England backfield will be messy this year, at least early on.

Bonus Note: Tom Curran of NBC Sports Boston reports "Harris took almost all the first-team reps" Thursday during Michel's second practice. I can promise RotoWire will be all over this situation, though it's always possible Bill Belichick tries to create an impression that's different from the Week 1 reality.

RB Bryce Love

RB64, ADP 193.9 ➡ RB56, ADP 167.4

It made sense when the Derrius Guice release generated late-round interest in Love. I'm a little bit less impressed with the second wave of hype, considering Adrian Peterson (ADP 156.0) and Antonio Gibson (ADP 122.8) both have been getting first-team practice reps, and J.D. McKissic is still a threat to handle third downs. There were reports of Love getting work with the starters, but that was when Peterson was held out of practice for maintenance. Peterson is still the safe bet for carries in September, and Gibson is still the upside play long term. Love comes with high risk of being a goose-egg machine, which is fine for a 19th-round RB but not for a 14th/15th-round pick.

Bonus Note: Ben Standig of The Athletic isn't even sure Love will have a roster spot, suggesting Peterson, Gibson and McKissic are the locks. I happen to think they'll keep Love on the roster, but he might be a healthy scratch come Week 1.

WR Jerry Jeudy

WR47, ADP 109.1 ➡ WR45, ADP 104.7

"We'll say Jerry's pretty good... we'll put it that way," said Drew Lock, sporting a rather smug look on his face. And Lock isn't the only one who has been impressed, with Jon Heath of Broncos Wire saying the rookie has been "the star of training camp so far." But I'm not so sure any of this warrants an ADP rise, considering Jeudy's talent was never the question. The real problem is that the Broncos already have a No. 1 receiver in Courtland Sutton, while it isn't quite clear what they have (or don't have) in Lock. Plus, the Gordon/Lindsay backfield could make this a top-10 run-play-rate offense, and Noah Fant has a breakout path of his own. I still prefer CeeDee Lamb (WR43, ADP 101.2) as my top rookie wideout, though I usually end up drafting Jamison Crowder or Darius Slayton in that ADP range.

TE Chris Herndon

TE20, ADP 154.7 ➡ TE19, ADP 148.8

Drafters increasingly have realized that the Jets have nobody else to throw to. With Vyncint Smith (core muscle) looking at a prolonged absence and Denzel Mims still out with a hamstring injury, the passing game will need to flow through Herndon, Jamison Crowder, Breshad Perriman and Le'Veon Bell. A narrow target distribution is the logical outcome, and it doesn't hurt that Herndon has reportedly looked good in practice. He was drafted at TE21, ADP 159.8 over the first seven days of August, so he's up 11 spots relative to the beginning of the month, and I'm guessing he'll creep up a little more.

ADP Down ⬇️

QB Jimmy Garoppolo

QB21, ADP 160.8 ➡ QB23, ADP 165.6

It's no surprise drafters are starting to get cold foot on Garoppolo as the Niners approach Week 1 with no assurance of having either Deebo Samuel (foot) or Brandon Aiyuk (hamstring) in the lineup. A million targets for George Kittle isn't the worst plan for a passing offense, but it won't catch anyone off guard. The good news is that Garoppolo opens his season against the Cardinals, Jets and Giants, so he should spend plenty of time in the red zone even if it's the defense and rushing game that get him there. My real concern remains the same: he doesn't add anything on the ground, and he's only average to above-average as a pure passer — not really a winning combo in fantasy football.

RB/WR Antonio Gibson

WR49, ADP 117.5 ➡ WR52, ADP 122.8

Gibson is still being drafted much earlier than he was before Guice was waived, and rightfully so. But we've now seen the rookie fall in back-to-back weeks, with some of the Washington backfield enthusiasm instead being directed toward Bryce Love. A few weeks back, an 18th-round pick used on Love might have seemed like a better investment than a 10th-rounder spent on Gibson. But now that the ADPs have converged to a gap of less than four full rounds, it's the rookie who makes for the sharper pick.

RB Carlos Hyde

RB62, ADP 188.4 ➡ RB64, ADP 201.9

Not sure I understand this one, considering the reports out of Seahawks training camp suggest Hyde has been getting regular run with the starters. Yes, that's largely because the team is being cautious with Chris Carson, but it's not like we ever had delusions of Hyde launching a backfield coup. With Rashaad Penny (knee) likely staying on the PUP list, Hyde is in good position to claim Penny's role from last year. That makes the veteran a solid pick in this draft range, and it also puts him one injury away from the starting job in an offense that loves to run. Carson, of course, hasn't exactly been the paragon of durability. On the other hand, Penny could be back at some point, while Travis Homer and DeeJay Dallas are lurking. I guess my point is that I like Hyde at the new price but not really at the old one.

WR A.J. Green

WR31, ADP 67.8 ➡ WR33 ADP 72.7

Given Green's age and injury history, I'm surprised he hasn't fallen even further while dealing with a hamstring ailment. He was seen running Monday and then returned to practice Wednesday, but I still wonder if he's simply reached a point in his career where staying healthy for more than a few weeks at a time is extremely difficult. I also wonder if the Bengals might limit his snaps, considering they have Tyler Boyd, Tee Higgins, John Ross and Auden Tate, the latter of whom has been a consistent subject of beat-writer camp hype this month. Tate is still going undrafted more often than not, but he did bump from WR95 up to WR88 this past week.

WR Mike Williams

WR46, ADP 108.9 ➡ WR51, ADP 122.1

Williams appears questionable for Week 1 after he sprained his shoulder in practice. He already had big concerns about target volume, playing in what could be a run-heavy offense with Tyrod Taylor under center, and competing for Taylor's attention with Keenan Allen, Hunter Henry and Austin Ekeler. Of course, the Chargers don't have any pass-catching depth, so the fourth option in their passing game could be above 15 percent target share. That was indeed the case last season, with Williams at 16 percent, Henry at 17 percent, Ekeler at 18 percent, and Allen at 25 percent. Granted, the 16-percent share works out to just 84 targets if the Chargers are a 525-pass-attempt offense. In summary, I didn't have strong feelings on Williams before, and I don't have strong feelings on him now. He's someone I'll consider drafting when he falls a round or two below ADP.

Other ADP-related Notes

• Clyde Edwards-Helaire continues his ascent, going from ADP 7.6 last week to 7.1 this week. Accordingly, Alvin Kamara has slipped from 4.1 to 4.3 and Dalvin Cook from 5.3 to 5.6. Looking a couple spots lower, the Miles Sanders lower-body injury has dropped him from 10.8 to 11.4, which perhaps explains Derrick Henry bumping from 7.9 to 7.6. There's also been some chatter, which I fully support, about Henry getting more work on passing downs this year, if only because the Titans have nobody else to handle the job if third-round rookie Darrynton Evans (undisclosed injury) isn't deemed healthy and capable.
• Drake (foot) dropped from 13.9 to 14.9, with his use of a walking boot prompting all kinds of discussion among fantasy analysts on twitter. I tend to believe Drake when he says it's not a big deal and is something he's done in the past to avoid aggravating minor ailments. That said, if you were previously torn between Drake and another player in the early second round, you'll probably now take the guy who isn't using a walking boot 18 days before the season opener. Personally, I still have Drake at RB8, a solid pick in the late first or early second. I'll bump Austin Ekeler ahead of him if Drake doesn't make it back to practice at some point next week.
• I mentioned Chris Carson above, and he's actually gone from RB20 (ADP 35.0) to RB18 (ADP 32.0) over the past week. He jumped over Melvin Gordon and Todd Gurley, though it's hard to draw any big conclusions when Carson, Conner, Gordon, Gurley, Leonard Fournette, Jonathan Taylor and Le'Veon Bell are all within 10 ADP spots. I prefer Conner without hesitation, but it's clear drafters on the whole have a wide variety of opinions once Austin Ekeler and Aaron Jones are off the board. Jones is RB14 at ADP 16.5, while Fournette is RB15 at ADP 28.1 — a huge ADP drop for one spot in the RB ranks.
• David Montgomery's groin strain was the big news this week, but it only just happened Wednesday afternoon, so we'll need to wait for the next edition of ADP Analysis to see how drafters have responded.
• Phillip Lindsay rose by a little bit for a second straight week, going from RB35 (ADP 90.6) to RB34 (ADP 86.4). He was going at RB38, ADP 94.8 a couple weeks ago, and it seems like his ascension is based on stuff that doesn't really matter — a minor injury Melvin Gordon has already returned from, plus reports of the two RBs splitting reps. We always knew Lindsay would still get first-team reps; the issue is that he probably won't get many goal-line carries or targets in games.
• Preston Williams is on the move, going from WR53 to WR53 and ADP 134.1 to ADP 127.9. He's been a steady riser the past few weeks, avoiding setbacks and earning positive reviews despite being less than 10 months removed from an ACL tear.
• Aiyuk dropped from WR59 (ADP 144.9) to WR61 (151.9). FWIW, everything coming out of 49ers training camp sounded positive before the hamstring injury. I can't find the link, but I think I saw one long-time beat writer saying that Aiyuk's level of involvement was the most they'd ever seen from 49ers rookie receiver... something like that?
• N'Keal Harry dropped from WR63 (ADP 159.1) to WR65 (ADP 170.1), likely in response to some missed practice time. I wonder if people simply didn't notice that he returned to practice Sunday? The price has mostly been higher than I'd like for what seems like a lower-probability breakout candidate, but it's hard not to like the upside when all it costs is a 15th-round pick. Of course, I'm often using that 15th-rounder on James Washington instead.
• Laviska Shenault went up from WR70 (ADP194.2) to WR68 (180.7). He was available at the very end of drafts earlier this summer, but he's slowly been moving up the ranks behind some twitter love from prominent fantasy writers and podcasters. It seems like a fair correction; he was undervalued when he was going around pick 200.