ADP Analysis: Tracking ADP Movement for Best Ball Since the 2024 NFL Draft

ADP Analysis: Tracking ADP Movement for Best Ball Since the 2024 NFL Draft

This article is part of our ADP Analysis series.

Last week I wrote an article comparing ADPs between sites, looking at the differences between where players typically are drafted for best ball on Underdog, Drafters and DraftKings. Now it's time to see how ADPs have changed over time, comparing pre-draft numbers from April to the recent results in mid-May. Data from DraftKings won't be included in this iteration, as there isn't any from April from the comparison (they opened 2024 best ball contests the week after the NFL Draft).

All of this information is coming from best ball contests, but it's also useful for redraft and dynasty as a gauge of how 2024 expectations have changed for individual players. We always see some massive ADP swings in the days and weeks after the NFL Draft, with running backs in particular often gaining or losing a lot of value due to the new RBs their team drafted (or didn't). I'll also look at some rookies below, as well as some potentially confusing cases where there's a significant ADP change that can't cleanly be explained by events from the draft.

Before we get to my analysis at the bottom, let's take a look at the numbers in a big, sortable chart. On the right-hand side, you'll see two columns specific to Underdog and two specific to Drafters, showing ADPs from April and May. On the left you'll find three columns that entail data from both sites, showing average ADPs between the two from April and May, plus the difference between those two numbers. 

The guys I'll discuss at the bottom are some of the players with the most noteworthy differences in that 'Δ May/Apr' column. Keep in mind that a two-spot move in the first round (e.g. Bijan Robinson) is much more meaningful than a 12-spot move in the 15th (e.g. Juwan Johnson).

PosPlayerAvg MayΔ May/AprAvg AprUD MayUD AprDR MayDR Apr
1RBChristian McCaffrey1.30.01.31.21.21.31.3
2WRCeeDee Lamb2.00.22.22.12.41.92.0
3WRTyreek Hill3.30.03.33.23.23.33.3
4WRJa'Marr Chase4.10.14.24.14.34.04.1
5WRJustin Jefferson5.21.26.45.26.25.26.6
6WRAmon-Ra St. Brown6.31.27.46.67.65.97.2
7RBBijan Robinson7.0-2.05.16.65.47.44.7
8RBBreece Hall8.0-1.36.77.76.58.26.8
9WRPuka Nacua9.10.19.29.49.58.78.9
10WRA.J. Brown10.20.210.410.210.510.210.3
11WRGarrett Wilson11.00.611.611.111.910.811.2
12RBJahmyr Gibbs12.4-0.312.112.111.412.612.7
13WRMarvin Harrison13.34.317.613.417.413.217.8
14WRDrake London15.01.916.915.819.114.214.7
15RBJonathan Taylor15.61.116.615.515.915.617.3
16RBSaquon Barkley16.81.117.914.916.518.719.2
17WRChris Olave17.26.323.618.326.916.120.2
18WRDavante Adams18.10.418.418.920.017.216.8
19WRBrandon Aiyuk18.34.222.517.721.718.923.2
20RBKyren Williams21.0-7.513.520.613.621.313.4
21WRNico Collins21.7-6.815.022.915.420.514.5
22RBDe'Von Achane23.2-2.520.722.419.323.922.0
23WRMike Evans23.35.328.624.828.221.829.0
24WRDeebo Samuel23.74.127.822.526.424.929.2
25WRStefon Diggs24.8-1.523.324.922.924.623.6
26WRJaylen Waddle27.23.430.627.632.126.829.0
27WRMalik Nabers28.13.831.928.230.428.033.4
28WRDJ Moore28.3-4.124.227.122.429.526.0
29WRMichael Pittman28.52.631.030.430.526.531.5
30TESam LaPorta29.04.433.428.833.629.133.1
31WRDeVonta Smith32.06.638.633.637.830.439.3
32WRDK Metcalf33.13.836.933.235.133.038.7
33QBJosh Allen33.2-8.824.432.923.533.425.2
34WRCooper Kupp33.44.137.535.339.131.535.8
35RBDerrick Henry35.60.836.332.238.738.933.9
36TETravis Kelce35.94.140.038.442.233.337.7
37RBJosh Jacobs36.3-4.232.134.233.238.330.9
38WRZay Flowers38.69.648.240.047.937.248.5
39QBJalen Hurts39.1-2.336.837.636.240.537.3
40RBTravis Etienne40.01.041.037.637.642.444.3
41WRTank Dell41.6-12.629.043.130.240.027.8
42WRTee Higgins42.23.345.542.244.842.146.2
43TETrey McBride43.13.746.844.851.241.442.3
44QBLamar Jackson43.5-0.642.942.343.344.642.4
45QBPatrick Mahomes46.94.151.044.249.349.552.6
46RBIsiah Pacheco47.26.153.346.451.947.954.6
47WRGeorge Pickens47.73.250.947.351.548.150.2
48WRKeenan Allen48.1-6.641.652.542.343.740.8
49TEDalton Kincaid48.716.064.750.267.247.162.1
50WRAmari Cooper50.1-0.349.951.249.049.050.7
51WRChristian Kirk50.51.551.955.055.045.948.8
52QBC.J. Stroud51.411.262.648.660.254.264.9
53TEMark Andrews52.4-1.351.053.453.651.348.4
54RBJames Cook53.6-1.652.150.646.956.657.2
55WRTerry McLaurin55.62.157.758.658.252.657.1
56RBRachaad White56.8-7.849.053.645.659.952.4
57WRXavier Worthy57.042.699.657.3102.556.796.6
58RBJoe Mixon57.63.661.255.461.559.860.8
59WRJayden Reed57.6-2.155.558.756.056.555.0
60QBAnthony Richardson58.62.360.956.357.960.863.8
61TEKyle Pitts58.7-3.055.760.863.656.547.7
62WRMarquise Brown61.8-1.660.361.963.061.757.5
63WRCalvin Ridley65.0-5.259.867.461.162.558.5
64RBKenneth Walker66.3-0.865.462.059.670.571.2
65RBAlvin Kamara66.44.070.465.768.567.072.2
66TEGeorge Kittle67.15.072.166.870.667.473.5
67WRRome Odunze67.3-16.850.566.348.868.252.2
68WRLadd McConkey70.248.2118.369.6122.870.7113.8
69TEEvan Engram71.00.871.875.977.166.166.4
70WRChris Godwin71.8-2.369.576.772.266.966.8
71WRRashee Rice72.3-47.724.676.327.468.221.7
72RBAaron Jones72.4-0.871.671.569.773.273.4
73WRJordan Addison72.6-4.767.969.468.475.767.4
74WRKeon Coleman74.462.3136.773.9133.474.9140.0
75WRBrian Thomas74.5-8.865.774.165.274.966.1
76QBKyler Murray77.03.980.979.086.074.975.7
77WRDiontae Johnson77.1-6.670.582.473.171.867.9
78RBDavid Montgomery77.8-3.074.873.371.582.278.1
79RBRhamondre Stevenson78.43.181.577.180.279.782.7
80QBJoe Burrow79.32.381.571.973.986.689.1
81RBZamir White81.012.793.780.398.381.689.0
82WRDeAndre Hopkins81.4-7.574.084.576.378.371.6
83WRJaxon Smith-Njigba82.4-3.079.581.476.483.482.5
84TEJake Ferguson83.34.587.888.193.778.481.8
85WRChristian Watson83.50.083.586.182.180.884.8
86RBD'Andre Swift84.72.487.183.386.986.187.2
87QBDak Prescott87.2-2.984.384.979.289.489.3
88QBJordan Love89.2-6.882.489.183.289.381.6
89RBNajee Harris90.0-2.787.387.384.792.789.9
90RBJaylen Warren90.65.395.992.890.788.3101.0
91RBTony Pollard92.8-8.484.491.781.293.987.6
92RBJames Conner93.6-15.178.591.781.995.475.0
93TEDavid Njoku94.1-8.186.099.391.988.880.1
94RBRaheem Mostert94.3-1.393.092.889.295.896.8
95RBZack Moss95.29.0104.294.4106.395.9102.0
96WRCurtis Samuel96.320.8117.099.9123.992.6110.1
97WRJameson Williams96.71.398.099.996.193.599.9
98QBCaleb Williams97.013.2110.294.8109.299.2111.2
99RBJonathon Brooks97.127.5124.592.7120.2101.4128.8
100TEBrock Bowers97.9-18.979.098.582.197.375.9
101RBJavonte Williams103.5-9.594.0104.694.2102.393.7
102RBTrey Benson104.03.8107.8101.8104.9106.2110.6
103WRTyler Lockett104.96.7111.5109.7114.9100.0108.1
104QBBrock Purdy105.5-6.698.9103.097.0107.9100.8
105WRMike Williams105.6-10.695.0105.599.3105.690.7
106QBJayden Daniels107.222.2129.4106.3129.7108.1129.0
107WRCourtland Sutton107.5-3.6103.9106.2101.5108.7106.2
108WRRomeo Doubs109.9-18.591.4115.797.5104.085.2
109WRKhalil Shakir110.817.5128.3115.7133.9105.8122.6
110RBDevin Singletary111.0-1.2109.9114.0114.1108.0105.6
111TEDallas Goedert111.20.2111.4113.2114.4109.1108.3
112RBAustin Ekeler111.9-16.995.1108.893.8115.096.3
113RBBrian Robinson113.7-1.4112.4111.2107.8116.2116.9
114RBNick Chubb116.2-13.4102.8104.489.2128.0116.4
115RBChase Brown116.31.5117.8119.6113.7113.0121.8
116QBTrevor Lawrence116.83.2120.0117.7118.7115.9121.3
117WRAdonai Mitchell117.5-22.794.8113.397.9121.691.6
118QBTua Tagovailoa117.9-3.4114.6111.7107.5124.1121.6
119WRJakobi Meyers118.3-15.2103.2121.7104.1114.9102.2
120WRRashid Shaheed119.911.3131.2122.5134.5117.2127.8
121TET.J. Hockenson120.16.7126.8114.8122.7125.4130.9
122RBGus Edwards120.5-2.5118.1117.4123.5123.6112.6
123WRJoshua Palmer120.821.6142.4126.0141.0115.5143.7
124QBJared Goff121.2-5.0116.2120.6117.9121.7114.4
125RBTyjae Spears121.7-6.3115.5123.6107.3119.8123.6
126TEDalton Schultz122.1-17.0105.2125.8114.7118.495.6
127QBJustin Herbert124.9-4.6120.3122.8112.1126.9128.4
128WRGabe Davis128.1-9.1119.0129.6120.6126.5117.4
129RBEzekiel Elliott130.480.1210.5128.1214.7132.6206.2
130RBBlake Corum130.42.6133.0130.3128.4130.4137.5
131WRJerry Jeudy130.8-6.0124.8131.7127.2129.8122.3
132RBJerome Ford131.94.8136.8136.8139.9127.0133.6
133WRBrandin Cooks132.210.9143.1134.6143.4129.7142.7
134WRJahan Dotson133.65.6139.2132.5139.8134.6138.6
135QBKirk Cousins134.7-22.0112.8133.6120.9135.8104.6
136WRJosh Downs135.3-24.6110.7137.7108.8132.8112.6
137RBZach Charbonnet136.6-2.2134.4136.0135.9137.2132.9
138TECole Kmet138.1-3.9134.2135.1132.9141.0135.5
139WRXavier Legette139.113.1152.2139.5156.0138.7148.3
140RBRico Dowdle140.227.1167.2140.4164.9139.9169.5
141TEPat Freiermuth142.04.1146.1141.7143.8142.2148.3
142WRDontayvion Wicks143.22.9146.1145.4144.3140.9147.8
143RBJaylen Wright145.0-6.4138.6145.1137.3144.9139.9
144WRRicky Pearsall145.218.4163.6144.4165.5146.0161.6
145QBMatthew Stafford147.0-6.0141.0142.7136.8151.2145.1
146WRDarnell Mooney147.5-1.3146.2150.5153.0144.4139.3
147WRQuentin Johnston148.7-11.3137.4148.9137.2148.4137.5
148RBMarShawn Lloyd149.68.4158.1147.3155.8151.9160.3
149RBKendre Miller150.94.5155.4154.4153.3147.3157.5
150RBTy Chandler151.42.2153.6152.4151.2150.4156.0
151WRTroy Franklin152.1-35.1117.0153.4118.9150.7115.1
152QBAaron Rodgers152.2-4.0148.1147.7141.9156.6154.3
153TELuke Musgrave153.3-6.4146.9152.2148.5154.3145.2
154RBRay Davis154.330.2184.5158.8189.9149.8179.1
155WRMichael Wilson154.9-10.9144.0157.5151.3152.3136.7
156WRJa'Lynn Polk156.925.1182.0155.7179.7158.1184.3
157WRRoman Wilson157.2-2.0155.1159.2156.8155.1153.4
158TEBen Sinnott161.075.3236.3152.4237.5169.6235.1
159TEHunter Henry161.210.5171.7161.7173.2160.7170.2
160QBBaker Mayfield161.4-11.1150.4156.9151.5165.9149.2
161WRJermaine Burton161.943.7205.5161.6199.5162.1211.5
162QBDeshaun Watson162.9-7.0155.9161.4157.3164.4154.5
163RBKimani Vidal163.375.3238.6163.1237.1163.5240.0
164RBAntonio Gibson163.3-0.2163.1170.8168.0155.8158.2
165WRAdam Thielen163.90.1164.0166.8166.1161.0161.9
166RBChuba Hubbard165.8-43.3122.5166.6124.4164.9120.6
167RBTyler Allgeier166.4-7.2159.3168.0163.2164.8155.3
168RBJ.K. Dobbins166.538.0204.5161.2198.9171.7210.0
169WRMalachi Corley166.816.2183.0169.5185.0164.1180.9
170TEJuwan Johnson170.111.5181.6174.1183.4166.1179.7
171WRMarvin Mims170.6-22.8147.8170.7148.0170.4147.6
172RBBucky Irving171.421.1192.5173.5186.2169.3198.8
173TECade Otton173.3-8.1165.2167.8163.2178.7167.2
174QBGeno Smith176.31.5177.8172.6176.1179.9179.4
175WRLuke McCaffrey178.959.5238.4178.5236.7179.3240.0
176RBKhalil Herbert179.42.3181.7182.1178.7176.7184.6
177TEIsaiah Likely179.8-4.8175.0178.1172.4181.4177.5
178QBWill Levis180.7-13.7167.0177.1166.2184.3167.8
179WRRashod Bateman180.82.8183.5183.1184.8178.4182.2
180WRWan'Dale Robinson181.4-14.3167.1186.2172.1176.6162.1
181WRJavon Baker181.733.1214.8184.0212.1179.4217.5
182RBJaleel McLaughlin181.8-30.1151.7181.3151.7182.2151.6
183TEJonnu Smith182.1-14.9167.2187.5175.2176.6159.1
184RBTyrone Tracy183.356.8240.0185.5240.0181.0240.0
185TETyler Conklin184.57.3191.8179.8191.4189.2192.1
186RBRoschon Johnson184.6-9.6175.1182.4171.5186.8178.6
187QBJ.J. McCarthy187.66.8194.4177.6190.5197.6198.2
188WRDemario Douglas188.6-18.2170.4190.6170.5186.6170.3
189WRDemarcus Robinson190.410.6201.0194.6211.4186.2190.6
190RBKeaton Mitchell192.0-5.1186.8190.6182.1193.3191.5
191QBDrake Maye193.0-39.9153.2193.4147.4192.6158.9
192TENoah Fant193.43.3196.7191.5196.7195.3196.7
193QBDerek Carr196.9-19.3177.6199.4181.4194.3173.7
194RBDameon Pierce197.915.0212.9193.4205.7202.4220.1
195WRDevontez Walker198.5-0.3198.2198.2193.5198.8202.8
196RBElijah Mitchell198.8-24.5174.4200.5175.1197.1173.6
197QBBryce Young200.5-9.6190.8198.4188.4202.5193.2
198WROdell Beckham201.328.5229.8197.7234.6204.9225.0
199QBJustin Fields201.5-25.6175.9194.5163.2208.5188.6
200WRMalik Washington202.74.3207.0208.0211.8197.3202.1
201RBAudric Estime204.6-11.3193.4209.1194.3200.1192.4
202QBDaniel Jones204.8-3.9201.0204.4210.1205.2191.8
203RBWill Shipley206.4-1.3205.2210.0210.1202.8200.2
204TEChigoziem Okonkwo206.7-11.7195.1197.4195.7216.0194.4
205WRJalen McMillan207.410.6218.0210.5217.0204.3219.0
206TEJa'Tavion Sanders208.0-0.8207.2206.2202.5209.8211.8
207RBIsaac Guerendo208.89.6218.4208.4240.0209.2196.8
208WRTyler Boyd209.1-5.6203.5202.2196.6216.0210.4
209QBBo Nix209.821.7231.5208.7235.1210.8227.8
210TEMike Gesicki209.9-1.2208.7203.8203.7216.0213.7
211TETucker Kraft211.33.8215.1206.5213.9216.0216.2
212WRElijah Moore212.05.3217.3208.0207.2216.0227.4
213WRDJ Chark212.527.4239.9209.0239.7216.0240.0
214WRJalin Hyatt213.1-6.0207.1211.0198.6215.2215.6
215WRBrenden Rice213.318.3231.6210.5231.6216.0231.5
216QBRussell Wilson213.6-10.9202.8211.2200.1216.0205.4

         

ADP Moving Up ⬆️

WR Marvin Harrison (Apr: 17.6 > May: 13.3)

This seems like a lot of movement for someone that we knew would be a top-five pick and quite possibly going to Arizona. It also feels too early for any rookie WR, though there have certainly been cases like Ja'Marr Chase, Odell Beckham and Justin Jefferson where the Year 1 production ended up being first-round worthy. I wasn't drafting Harrison in the middle of Round 2 before and definitely won't be taking him at the 1/2 turn now. You could maybe talk me into this ADP if a WR-needy team with a top QB (e.g. Bills/Chargers) had traded the farm to move up for Harrison. As much as I like Kyler Murray, he's not a top passer and probably won't be anywhere near the league leaders for pass attempts.

       

WR Chris Olave (Apr: 23.6 > May: 17.2)

This mostly seems like a correction to Olave going later than he should've earlier in the offseason, with perhaps some additional impact from the Saints waiting until Round 5 to draft a pass catcher (Oklahoma WR Bub Means). Whatever the case, Olave has gone from undervalued to properly valued in my book.

      

WR Brandon Aiyuk (Apr: 22.5 > May: 18.3)

WR Deebo Samuel (Apr: 27.8 > May: 23.7)

This is the major ADP shift that surprised me most, in part because the 49ers drafted WR Ricky Pearsall in the first round and WR Jacob Cowing in the fourth. While those picks were for the future more so than 2024, it is possible Pearsall steals a few routes from Aiyuk and/or Samuel here and there. It's also possible Pearsall takes the No. 3 job from Jauan Jennings, who was targeted on only 16.0 percent of his routes last year (compared to 24.2 percent for Samuel and 26.0 percent for Aiyuk). Volume isn't a likely strong suit for San Francisco's pass catchers in the first place, and Pearsall could push a bit more of it toward the No. 3 or No. 4 receiver role.

My best explanation for the ADP gains is that there was pre-draft anxiety about Aiyuk or Samuel being traded to a lesser situation like New England or Pittsburgh. But I don't really get the logic there, as it would be a good thing for whichever guy wasn't dealt, plus there was also some chance of being traded to a team that would provide more targets in a solid offense (though obviously not an offense as good as San Francisco's). Anyway, the prices here are too rich for my blood, considering neither Samuel nor Aiyuk is likely to reach even 125 targets without the other missing a bunch of time. Both can put up high-end WR2 numbers without that kind of volume, as we've already seen, but when talking about top-25 picks I want a WR1 ceiling that doesn't require teammate injuries. 

             

WR Zay Flowers (Apr: 48.2 > May: 38.6)

I think a lot of people overestimated the chances of Baltimore drafting a wide receiver early. Ravens coach John Harbaugh has made it clear he likes Rashod Bateman (more than he probably should), and TE Isaiah Likely's emergence in the second half of last season gives Baltimore yet another reason to rank near the bottom of the league in three-wide usage. Likely might even be the third option this year, though it would probably be a distant third behind Flowers and TE Mark Andrews. The early-fourth-round pick Baltimore spent on UNC WR Devontez Walker was about what I expected in terms of draft capital devoted to the position, and at this point I'd argue Flowers has gone from accurately valued to slightly overrated. There's no way I'm taking him over RB Travis Etienne (May ADP 40.0), 

       

WR Xavier Worthy (Apr: 99.6 > May: 57.0)

WR Ladd McConkey (Apr: 118.3 > May: 70.2)

WR Keon Coleman (Apr: 136.7 > May: 74.4)

These three all shot up the ADP ranks after landing with teams that are weak at WR and strong at QB. Coleman also happened to be drafted earlier than most expected, and McConkey perhaps a bit earlier too. The biggest takeaway here is that there's generally value in drafting rookies early in the offseason. No rookie fell as far as these guys rose, including Troy Franklin. I also think Worthy and McConkey were simply going way too late before the draft. 

Worthy was never making it past the Top 50 after his record-setting 40, and McConkey was a lock for Day 2 with an outside shot to sneak into the back end of the first round. Their new ADPs seem fair, more or less, whereas Coleman is going a round or three early for my liking. Draft capital matters, but I also still care that Coleman had a weaker prospect profile heading into the draft.

       

RB Ezekiel Elliott (Apr: 210.5 > May: 130.4)

RB Rico Dowdle (Apr: 167.2 > May: 140.2)

Elliott moved up the most of any player, making an 80-pick jump from Round 18 to Round 11. Dowdle's rise was more modest, though perhaps also misguided. He went undrafted back in 2020 and lingered on the Cowboys' practice squad or at the bottom of their roster for three years, and he failed to impress last year when he finally got his "big chance" as the No. 2 back. He'll need to fight for that role again, while Elliott's combination of blocking, pass catching and short-yardage running makes him a heavy favorite to lead the Dallas RBs in snaps and touches. The ADP gap between Zeke and Dowdle should be a lot more than 10 picks.

             

Others

WR Drake London (Apr: 16.9 > May: 15.0

WR Mike Evans (Apr: 28.6 > May: 23.3)

TE Sam LaPorta (Apr: 33.4 > May: 29.0)

WR DeVonta Smith (Apr: 38.6 > May: 32.0)

TE Dalton Kincaid (Apr: 64.7 > May: 48.7)

QB C.J. Stroud (Apr: 62.6 > May: 51.4)

RB Zamir White (Apr: 93.7 > May: 81.0)

WR Curtis Samuel (Apr: 117.0 > May: 96.3)

WR Khalil Shakir (Apr: 128.3 > May: 110.8)

QB Caleb Williams (Apr: 100.2 > May: 97.0)

RB Jonathon Brooks (Apr: 124.5 > May: 97.1)

QB Jayden Daniels (Apr: 129.4 > May: 107.2)

WR Rashid Shaheed (Apr: 131.2 > May: 119.9)

WR Joshua Palmer (Apr: 142.2 > May: 120.8)

WR Ricky Pearsall (Apr: 163.6 > May: 145.2)

RB Ray Davis (Apr: 184.5 > May: 153.3)

WR Ja'Lynn Polk (Apr: 182.0 > May: 156.9)

TE Ben Sinnott (Apr: 236.3 > May: 161.0)

WR Jermaine Burton (Apr: 205.5 > May: 161.9)

RB Kimani Vidal (Apr: 238.6 > May: 163.3)

RB J.K. Dobbins (Apr: 204.5 > May: 166.5)

RB Bucky Irving (Apr: 192.5 > May: 171.4)

WR Luke McCaffrey (Apr: 238.4 > May: 178.9)

WR Javon Baker (Apr: 214.8 > May: 181.7)

RB Tyrone Tracy (Apr: 240.0 > May: 183.3)

WR Odell Beckham (Apr: 229.8 > May: 201.3)

WR DJ Chark (Apr: 239.9 > May: 212.5)

        

ADP Moving Down ⬇️

This one doesn't have a clear transaction-related explanation, but it's nonetheless significant to see that Robinson and RB Breece Hall (6.7 > 8.0) have dropped on both sites while WRs Justin Jefferson (6.4 > 5.2) and Amon-Ra St. Brown (7.4 > 6.3) have gained ground. You could argue that the Vikings drafting QB J.J. McCarthy and the Lions not drafting any WRs played a small role, but mostly it just seems to be a positional thing with more people preferring to score an elite receiver early. 

I don't necessarily disagree, as WRs have a lower injury rate (objective) and there's a lot of RB value after the first few rounds (subjective). That said, Hall seems poised for an absolutely massive season behind the Jets' remade offensive line. Robinson I'm a bit less bullish on, and I don't think I'd ever pick him ahead of ARSB or Hall. The question for me is whether I want to draft Robinson or Jefferson when St. Brown and Hall are gone (along with Christian McCaffrey, CeeDee Lamb, Tyreek Hill and Ja'Marr Chase. Personally, I rank them: McCaffrey>Hill>Lamb>Hall>Chase>ARSB>JJ/Bijan. Those are the eight players I consider to be strong first-round picks, though you won't find me in tears if I get a later selection and score two out of Garrett Wilson, A.J. Brown, Saquon Barkley, Jonathan Taylor, Puka Nacua and Drake London.

            

Williams has steadily lost ground throughout the offseason, with the luster of his 2023 production wearing off and concerns about his durability and future workloads setting in. Blake Corum joining the Rams in the third round adds to Williams' workload questions, though it also improves the third-year pro's chances of making it through the season intact. My own feelings regarding Williams essentially have mirrored public opinion at each stage, which is kind of lame to admit. Last year's per-game production was early-first-round stuff, but the downside risk with a 194-pound back was always greater than I estimated at the beginning of the offseason when ranking Williams as a mid-to-late first rounder.  

        

The last iteration of this article came out right before the Stefon Diggs trade. What's strange to me is that Diggs' ADP has dropped by just 1.5 spots, whereas Collins has gone down by 6.8 and Tank Dell by 12.6. That implies far more confidence in C.J. Stroud than Josh Allen, or else concerns about Diggs being unrelated to team context and more centered on aging. Either way, Collins is the one I want, as he's seemingly least at risk of losing snaps/routes to the others and is at the optimal point in his aging curve. 

       

I'm not sure if this is more due to a general trend of RBs falling or because the Bucs spent a fourth-round pick on Bucky Irving. Either way, White already looked like a nice value and now stands out as one of the best buys for any position/round. Irving was a great college player, but his pro prospects took a huge hit when he ran a 4.55 40 at 5-9, 192. He ended up going late in the fourth round, and even if he's successful in the NFL it won't necessarily take much of White's plate this season. 

Ordinary as he may be as a pure runner, White is a 214-pound back with an 89.1 percent career catch rate and hasn't missed a game through two seasons. The fifth round of fantasy drafts is extraordinarily late for someone who had 336 touches last season and has a realistic shot at a similar load in 2024.

          

Odunze landed in a crowded offense; Franklin was drafted later than expected; Mitchell was some of both. It's weird to see Odunze drop so much, considering Chicago was always one of his most likely landing spots and some of the other relatively high-probability outcomes (Tennessee, Denver) were much worse. It's also interesting that Odunze dropped by a lot more than DJ Moore and Keenan Allen, even adjusting for the larger value gap between picks early on in drafts.

        

The NFL usually lets guys play while legal situations are in progress, but Rice's issues are serious enough that we can't dismiss the possibility he lands on the commissioner's exempt list, i.e., paid leave. It's also possible his case wraps up before or during the season, in which case he'll almost certainly be suspended for multiple games within a few weeks after any legal judgment. Rice doesn't seem to be handling any of this especially well, as he's reportedly now being investigated for allegations that he punched a photographer in a nightclub.

          

As much as I like third-round pick Trey Benson, we're now getting Conner at a price where he can share some work, miss some games and still be a good draft pick. The 29-year-old has scored 29 touchdowns in 41 games with Arizona, averaging 14.5 carries for 62.8 yards and 2.7 catches for 20.5 yards per appearance. Conner played 61.8 percent of snaps in his 13 active games last year, averaging 92.7 totals yards and scoring nine times despite being subbed out rather often. In other words, Benson can contribute in a meaningful way without preventing Conner from being a strong fantasy starter.

      

The Packers haven't drafted or signed any wide receivers since April, leaving us without a clean and tidy explanation for Doubs dropping 18.5 picks. My guess is that some of the luster from his huge playoff performance has worn off, giving way to well-founded concerns about Green Bay's target distributino. Prior to the January explosion, Doubs would've been my pick for the odd man out between him, Christian Watson, Jayden Reed and Dontayvion Wicks. I'm not so sure now, but I am pretty confident Doubs won't go too far north of last year's 96 targets. He might see the same number improve his efficiency, however, which would put his production right in line with where he's being drafted as a WR4. The current price feels about right.

        

Others 

WR DJ Moore (Apr: 24.2 > May: 28.3)

WR Keenan Allen (Apr: 41.6 > May: 48.1)

RB Josh Jacobs (Apr: 32.1 > May: 36.3)

QB Josh Allen (Apr: 24.4 > May: 33.2)

WR Brian Thomas (Apr: 65.7 > May: 74.5)

TE Brock Bowers (Apr: 79.0 > May: 97.9)

RB Austin Ekeler (Apr: 95.1 > May: 111.9)

RB Nick Chubb (Apr: 102.8 > May: 116.2)

WR Jakobi Meyers (Apr: 103.2 > May: 118.3)

TE Dalton Schultz (Apr: 105.2 > May: 122.1)

QB Kirk Cousins (Apr: 112.8 > May: 134.7)

WR Josh Downs (Apr: 110.7 > May: 135.3)

RB Chuba Hubbard (Apr: 112.5 > May: 165.8)

WR Marvin Mims (Apr: 147.8 > May: 170.6)

RB Jaleel McLaughlin (Apr: 151.7 > May: 181.8)

QB Drake Maye (Apr: 153.2 > May: 193.0)

RB Elijah Mitchell (Apr: 174.4 > May: 198.8)

QB Justin Fields (Apr: 175.9 > May: 201.5)

TE Michael Mayer (Apr: 157.3 > May: Outside Top 220)

RB Braelon Allen (Apr: 163.5 > May: Outside Top 220)

WR Zay Jones (Apr: 177.6 > May: Outside Top 220)

WR Noah Brown (Apr: 186.2 > May: Outside Top 220)

          

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Jerry Donabedian
Jerry was a 2018 finalist for the FSWA's Player Notes Writer of the Year and DFS Writer of the Year awards. A Baltimore native, Jerry roots for the Ravens and watches "The Wire" in his spare time.
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