This article is part of our ADP Analysis series.
Most fantasy managers go into drafts with some type of cheat sheet, but let's face it, even with your order of players listed in advance, we all question similarly ranked players when we're on the clock. The goal of this series is to lay out the upside and downside of players who have similar ADPs. When comparing players, we'll break down players at the same position because fantasy managers typically have a good idea of which position they're targeting with a specific pick.
For those looking for a strong wide receiver after the top 20 (or so) are off the board, this ADP battle is for you. We'll compare DK Metcalf, Amari Cooper and George Pickens.
DK Metcalf, WR, Seahawks
Upside
Even though Metcalf had a 1,303-yard, 10-touchdown season in 2020, that production appears to be a career outlier. We can usually look for 1,000-1,100 yards and about seven scores from the pass-catcher. If new offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb goes with a more aggressive and heavier passing attack we could see Metcalf thrive. In that scenario, don't be surprised if the physical receiver ends up in the 1,200-yard range. Also, Metcalf is always capable of scoring double-digit touchdowns.
Downside
Geno Smith had the only two good seasons of his long career when Shane Waldron was running the offense. If Grubb is unable to unlock his quarterback in the same way as Waldron, we could see regression from the 33-year-old signal-caller. If that happens, Metcalf could find himself
Most fantasy managers go into drafts with some type of cheat sheet, but let's face it, even with your order of players listed in advance, we all question similarly ranked players when we're on the clock. The goal of this series is to lay out the upside and downside of players who have similar ADPs. When comparing players, we'll break down players at the same position because fantasy managers typically have a good idea of which position they're targeting with a specific pick.
For those looking for a strong wide receiver after the top 20 (or so) are off the board, this ADP battle is for you. We'll compare DK Metcalf, Amari Cooper and George Pickens.
DK Metcalf, WR, Seahawks
Upside
Even though Metcalf had a 1,303-yard, 10-touchdown season in 2020, that production appears to be a career outlier. We can usually look for 1,000-1,100 yards and about seven scores from the pass-catcher. If new offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb goes with a more aggressive and heavier passing attack we could see Metcalf thrive. In that scenario, don't be surprised if the physical receiver ends up in the 1,200-yard range. Also, Metcalf is always capable of scoring double-digit touchdowns.
Downside
Geno Smith had the only two good seasons of his long career when Shane Waldron was running the offense. If Grubb is unable to unlock his quarterback in the same way as Waldron, we could see regression from the 33-year-old signal-caller. If that happens, Metcalf could find himself right around 1,000 yards and six touchdowns. That would be a fine season, but nothing fantasy managers would see as a fair return on investment.
The Bottom Line
It seems we know what to expect from Metcalf. He likely won't be the megastar we hoped for after his monster 2020 season. However, the former Ole Miss standout is one of the safer receivers on the board. Plus, durability has not been an issue with Metcalf, who has missed only one game in five seasons.
Amari Cooper, WR, Browns
Upside
Cooper has played amazing football during his two years with the Browns. The former Alabama star is averaging 75 catches, 1,205 yards and seven touchdowns since 2022. Last year, the veteran played five games with Deshaun Watson at quarterback. In four of those games, Cooper posted at least 90 yards despite having double-digit targets in just one of those contests. As the top receiver in an offense that has provided him 130 targets per season, Cooper could flirt with a 1,300-yard season.
Downside
Cooper has fallen below 1,114 yards and five touchdowns just once in the last five seasons. The fact the wideout has thrived with the Browns going through a carousel of quarterbacks has proven Cooper's star status. Even if the receiver fell behind his recent production, a worst-case scenario would be 1,050 yards and five touchdowns.
The Bottom Line
For some reason, the fantasy community continues to reject the idea of Cooper being a top-15 receiver. The numbers he has consistently produced are, at worst, those of a top-20 receiver. Consider Cooper as one of the biggest values in 2024 drafts.
George Pickens, WR, Steelers
Upside
Very few receivers can do the level of damage after the catch Pickens has achieved. In 2023, the wideout had an 89th percentile yards after the catch rate. The fact Pickens was able to post 1,140 yards on 106 targets that came from Kenny Pickett and Mason Rudolph speaks to the pass-catcher's level of ability. Many fantasy managers are concerned the former Georgia Bulldog will fall onto hard times with run-centric coach Arthur Smith leading the Steelers' offense. Don't forget that when Smith coached A.J. Brown with Ryan Tannehill, Brown had a pair of seasons with at least 1,051 yards and eight touchdowns despite seeing no more than 106 targets. One of the ways this offense helped Brown was by hitting him on slants and deep shots off play-action passes. It would seem Russell Wilson (the presumed starter) will be successful on those types of throws. In terms of upside, Pickens may match last year's 1,140 yards and 106 targets, but the touchdowns could be near 10.
Downside
Since Pickens has already shown the ability to produce in a terrible offense, projecting a truly bad season is difficult. However, if Wilson struggles to succeed in the offense and/or Justin Fields takes over, the offense may not be able to consistently get the wideout into optimal situations to gain yardage after the catch. If the quarterback play is worse than expected, the receiver could struggle to reach 1,000 yards and five touchdowns.
The Bottom Line
The Steelers lack elite weapons in the passing game aside from Pickens. That should ensure the receiver eclipses 100 targets. With Pittsburgh likely leaning heavily on the run, the pass-catcher should find room to get open and gain yards after the catch. The play-action game should help the quarterbacks get clean looks to find Pickens as well. There may not be a massive upside due to the history of Smith's offenses, but Pickens should be a value at his typical draft cost.
The Final Word
Cooper appears to possess both the highest floor and ceiling of this group. Not only is he the top option in this group, but a case can be made that Cooper should be drafted in a higher tier. Although it is very close between Metcalf and Pickens, it seems probable Metcalf will see more targets. That is enough to move Metcalf into the No. 2 spot in this battle. The likely lack of ceiling, especially in an Arthur Smith offense, is what moves Pickens to the last spot in this group.
