Beating The Book

Last week was another clunker -- I went 5-9, lost my best bet (Vikings) and went 2-3 in the Supercontest. Often I lose confidence after a bad run and feel tenuous when making picks until things click again, but this week came easy to me, and some games even moved in my favor from Tuesday morning until now. Not that it portends anything one way or the other, but I feel good about these picks. 

I especially like the Bengals, Football Team, Saints, Cardinals and Broncos. 

For the podcast version of the article click here.

THURSDAY NIGHT

Giants +4.5 at Eagles

This worked out great because I wanted to take the Giants, but I set the line at 4.5, so when it moved to 3.5 Tuesday morning, I thought I'd be forced to take the Eagles. But now that it's 4.5, I can be a homer without running afoul of my underperforming process. Take the points. 

Eagles 23 - 20

EARLY GAMES

Browns -3.5 at Bengals

I made this line only three as the Browns are a mediocre team with a below-average and banged-up quarterback. Take the home dog. 

Bengals 24 - 23

Cowboys pick 'em at Football Team

I made this the standard plus three as the Football Team probably has as good an offensive line (low bar to clear) and a better defense. And I'm not sure how much better Andy Dalton is than Kyle Allen. Take the points. 

Football Team 26 - 23

Lions +2.5 at Falcons

I set this line at 2.5, so I was on the Lions initially (when it was at three), but now I have a coin-flip call to make. Does the dead-cat bounce from firing a coach last one game or two? I don't know, but give me the Lions. 

Falcons 31 - 30

Panthers +7.5 at Saints

I made this line 9.5, as I still think the Saints are good, they're at home off the bye and get Michael Thomas back. Lay the wood. 

Saints 31 - 20

Bills -13 at Jets

More fortuitous line movement for me as I had originally set this at 12.5, then moved it to 10.5 at the last second before discovering Tuesday morning it was actually 12.5, and I was stuck with the Jets solely because I moved my own line. But now that it's at 13, I would have been stuck with the Jets anyway, so I don't have to lose sleep over it. Honestly, the Book knows no one wants to touch the 0-6 ATS Jets, and actually the Jets' metrics aren't that terrible, so this is enough for me. 

Bills 23 - 13

Packers -3.5 at Texans

I don't want to overreact to a one-game sample, but what if the real overreaction was to the four-game sample to start the year as opposed to Aaron Rodgers' half-decade of decline? Besides it's not like this line is docking the Packers much for their no-show last week. I'm on the Texans, though I don't love they played an overtime game getting smashed up by Derrick Henry. 

Texans 27 - 24

Steelers -2 at Titans

I know the Titans played two games in five days, but this line should be Steelers plus 2.5 at worst and probably the full three. The injury to Taylor Lewan could be a problem against Pittsburgh's defense, though. Still, give me the Titans. 

Titans 29 - 27

LATE GAMES

Seahawks -3.5 at Cardinals

This should be a fun game. The Cardinals are erratic offensively, but they should have enough against a soft Seattle defense. Take the home dog. 

Seahawks 37 - 34

49ers +2.5 at Patriots

I set this at 3.5, as the Patriots should be better with full practices, and I don't want to mess with them off consecutive losses. Lay the wood. 

Patriots 26 - 23

Chiefs -9.5 at Broncos

I made this line 6.5. The Chiefs aren't striking downfield, and while Patrick Mahomes is more than capable of moving the sticks, that's usually not the kind of game plan that covers big road spreads without a good defense. Take the points. 

Chiefs 26 - 20

Jaguars +8 at Chargers

I set the line at 7.5, so this is basically a coin flip, but give me the Jaguars to gut out an epic backdoor cover. 

Chargers 31 - 24

SUNDAY NIGHT

Buccaneers -3 at Raiders

The Bucs looked awfully dominant against the Packers last week, but Aaron Rodgers played as though he were point shaving. The Raiders are coming off a huge win against the Chiefs and a bye week, so I could see them being flat, but I set this as a pick 'em as the Bucs seem to be getting too much credit for one great game. Take the Raiders. 

Raiders 24 - 23

MONDAY NIGHT

Bears +5.5 at Rams

I set this line at six, so I'm on the Rams. The Bears defense is good, but the offense is so ugly I'd need a little more to take them against a balanced team on the road. Lay the wood. 

Rams 24 - 17

For the podcast version of the article click here.

I went 5-9 last week to bring my season-long record to 41-49-1, lost my best bet (Vikings 2-4) and went 2-3 in the Supercontest to go 12-17-1 overall. Last year, I finished 127-123-6 on the regular season, 8-9 on best bets and 43-40-2 in the Super Contest. In 2018, I went 141-106-9 on the season, 10-7 on best bets, 48-36-1 in the Super Contest. From 1999-2019, I've gone 2,690-2,496 (51.9%), not including ties.