This article is part of our Beating the Book series.
Last week wasn't great -- 6-8 overall, lost my best bet (Chargers) and went 3-2 in the Super Contest.
This week, I especially like the Seahawks, Titans and Colts. I'm sketchy on the Bengals, Dolphins, Jets and Buccaneers.
For the podcast version of the article – usually up on Thursday morning, click here.
THURSDAY NIGHT
Colts +4 at Texans
I have no idea why the Texans are getting more than the standard three here. Last we saw them, they got destroyed by the Ravens, while the Colts have Jacoby Brissett back and might even have T.Y. Hilton too. Take the points.
Colts 26 - 23
EARLY GAMES
Dolphins +10.5 at Browns
I wanted to be on the Browns, so I made this line big -- 10 to be exact -- but the market went even bigger, so I'm on the Dolphins.
Browns 30 - 20
Broncos +4 at Bills
I think these are roughly even teams, so I'll take the points even though Denver's traveling for the second straight week for an early body-clock game.
Bills 20 - 17
Steelers -6.5 at Bengals
I had this at only minus 2.5, given all the injuries to the Steelers skill players, but they have three extra days' rest, so maybe they'll get everyone back. It also gave me pause to hear Rufus Peabody on the SXM show say he had it at Steelers minus 12, but I'll stick to my guns. Take the points.
Steelers 17 - 13
Giants +6 at Bears
I made this line only three. The Bears have a much better defense, but the Giants are coming off a bye and much better offensively. Take the points.
Bears 23 - 20
Raiders -3 at Jets
I wanted to take the Raiders, but I made the line only 2.5, figuring I'd switch to the Jets if I were getting the full three. So here we are, and I'm unfortunately on the Jets.
Raiders 23 - 21
Panthers +9.5 at Saints
I made this line 8.5, so I'm on the Panthers. They've been bad of late, but this is a big number between division rivals where the dog isn't a doormat. Take the points.
Saints 27 - 19
Buccaneers +4.5 at Falcons
I made this line four, so this pushes me (barely) on the Bucs. After two huge road wins, I'm buying Atlanta's defensive adjustments to an extent, but before last week, I would have made this line less than three.
Falcons 28 - 24
Lions -3.5 at Redskins
I made this line 2.5, thinking as bad as the Redskins are, I'm not laying the full three on the road with Jeff Driskell. Take the home dog.
Redskins 20 - 19
Seahawks +1.5 at Eagles
The Eagles receivers are terrible, and Carson Wentz isn't helping matters, either, of late. Maybe they get it together, but give me Russell Wilson and the Seahawks coming off a bye and getting points.
Seahawks 27 - 20
LATE GAMES
Jaguars +3 at Titans
I'm not sure why this line isn't bigger. The Titans are coming off a bye and have played better since Ryan Tannehill took over, while the Jaguars got blown out by the Colts. Lay the wood.
Titans 30 - 23
Cowboys +6.5 at Patriots
I made this line exactly 6.5, so I get to choose. Give me the Patriots at home laying less than seven against a Jason Garrett-coached team.
Patriots 24 - 17
SUNDAY NIGHT
Packers +3 at 49ers
I made this line 3.5, as I think the 49ers are a slightly better team, assuming George Kittle is back. They're better coached and have more playmakers on both sides of the ball. Lay the wood.
49ers 27 - 23
MONDAY NIGHT
Ravens -3 at Rams
This is exactly where I set the line, so I could go either way. I suppose I'll take the Ravens, who are the better, more exciting team and who seem to be improving every week.
Ravens 24 - 20
For the podcast version of the article – usually up on Thursday morning, click here.
Last week, I went 6-8, lost my best bet (the Chargers), and went 3-2 in the Super Contest. I'm now 74-86-2 on the year, 5-6 on best bets and 25-28-2 in the Super Contest. Last year I went 141-106-9 on the season, 10-7 on best bets, 48-36-1 in the Super Contest. From 1999-2018, I've gone 2,563-2,373 (51.9%), not including ties.
