Beating the Book: Full ATS Picks + Predictions for Every NFL Week 1 Game

Our long national nightmare has finally come to end. Football is back, and I'm thrilled to return for another year of picking every game, every week against the spread here at Beating the Book.

Suffice it to say it's been a grueling last six months without football. While the offseason has meant that I've been able to play a concerning amount of extremely average golf, I wouldn't wish it on my worst enemy.

Through mid-June, we at least had NBA betting to tide us over, but these last few months have been a grind. I'm not proud to admit it, but I've been betting baseball (not the same), the WNBA (surprisingly fun), even some local little league games (joking, unfortunately) to fill the void. Thankfully, all of that is behind us. Football is back, and suddenly the world feels as though it's back on its proper axis.

If you've been a regular reader of this piece in years past, first of all: thank you. I always appreciate the commentary in the comments below, as well as those of you who've reached out to me via email (nick@rotowire.com) or social media (@wha1en). I'm always happy to field questions via either of those mediums, so please don't hesitate to reach out during the season. 

Second of all, if you're a regular reader, you know the format. We run through each game chronologically, beginning with Thursday Night Football and ending with Monday Night Football. I'll offer my brief thoughts on each matchup, as well as an official pick against the spread and a final score prediction.

Keep in mind that this article will publish on Wednesdays each week, so we're using the lines as they stand at that time. As the season wears on, we often won't have as much injury clarity as we'd like, but we'll work with the information we have at the time of publication. If major variables are at play (QB or key skill player injuries, weather concerns, etc.), I'll do my best to provide some context and contingency plays.

If you're looking for more of my NFL coverage, you can catch me on the RotoWire Fantasy Football Podcast with my guy Jeff Erickson every Monday morning recapping the week that was in the NFL. I also co-host our flagship show, RotoWire Fantasy Sports Today, on Sirius XM Fantasy Sports (Channel 87) from 8pm-10pm ET, Monday through Thursday.

Additionally, keep an eye out for regular video content on RotoWire's YouTube channel, as well as our social platforms. We'll be bringing you plenty of fantasy advice and picks throughout the season.

Alright, that's enough housekeeping. Let's take a deep breath and start to dig in on Week 1, which begins with a banger on Thursday night – a rematch of last season's AFC Championship Game between the Ravens and Chiefs. Friday night's standalone matchup between the Packers and Eagles in Sao Paolo, Brazil is equally intriguing, providing us with a hell of a two-game set to whet our appetites before a full Sunday slate packed with what project to be competitive matchups.

As of publication, only three games carry a spread of more than 4.5 points: Cincinnati (-7.5) vs. New England, Buffalo (-6.5) vs. Arizona and Seattle (-6.0) vs. Denver. As you may expect, home teams are getting plenty of love, as only the Texans (-2.5 at IND) and Vikings (-1.5 at NYG) currently stand as road favorites.

You can find my thoughts on all those games, as well as the entire Week 1 slate, below. As will be the case every week throughout the season, we'll start chronologically and go game-by-game, picking each contest against the spread. Our best bet will always be highlighted in gold.

All odds via the DraftKings Sportsbook.

Thursday Night Football

Baltimore Ravens at Kansas City Chiefs

Spread: Chiefs -3.0

Total: 46.5

We begin with a monster matchup at Arrowhead as the defending champs look to avoid stumbling out of the gate like they did last season against Detroit – albeit without Chris Jones and Travis Kelce. Baltimore was the latest AFC team to have its Super Bowl dreams crushed by Patrick Mahomes and will have an immediate opportunity to avenge that AFC Championship Game defeat.

While we could argue that retribution is on the side of the Ravens, we have to acknowledge that Baltimore has a new defensive coordinator in Zach Orr with Mike MacDonald now running the show in Seattle. Personnel-wise, the Ravens should again be an elite unit, but this is a tough spot for a rookie DC to step into. 

For the Chiefs, it feels like the real season starts in the playoffs, but I expect Kansas City to be laser-focused on the opportunity to become the first team in NFL history to three-peat as Super Bowl champs. That quest begins in Week 1 behind what should be a revamped offense with improved weaponry around Mahomes. Even without Hollywood Brown (shoulder) this week, the addition of Xavier Worthy will be a difference-maker, and the Chiefs stealing Samaje Perine – who quietly had 50 catches last season – away from Denver gives them a rock-solid option behind Isiah Pacheco.

With strong defenses on each side, I don't expect this to be a shootout by any means. It should be a close game well into the fourth quarter, when the Chiefs are able to get a key stop or two and grind out a narrow win at home.

The pick: Chiefs 24 – Ravens 20

Friday Night Brazil Game

Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles

Spread: Eagles -2.5

Total: 49.5

Coming off of Ravens-Chiefs on Thursday, the table is set for another marquee matchup to set the table for Sunday's slate. The Packers come in as a popular dark-horse Super Bowl pick after picking up steam down the stretch last season. It's tough to argue against the young talent Green Bay has assembled, but it's still wild to me that the Packers are where they are right now considering they were 3-6 midway through last season.

On paper, this is a plus matchup for Love and his deep stable of receivers, led by Jayden Reed and a finally healthy (for now, at least) Christian Watson. The Eagles' defense was a disaster last season, finishing 28th in pass defense EPA and 30th against the run. Philly did address the secondary by adding Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean, both of whom should see reps in the slot right away. They also brought back C.J. Gardner-Johnson after a one-year sojourn in Detroit.

Of course, Green Bay also had its fair share of struggles on the defensive side last season. The three-game gauntlet against the Giants (367 total yards), Buccaneers (452) and Panthers (394) late in the regular season is still fresh in the mind. But at long last, the Packers have parted ways with Joe Barry – the most unpopular man in Brown County – and there's reason to believe Jeff Hafley's unit should be better-schemed, almost by default. Assumptions like that can be dangerous, but even Packers players are relieved to be freed from the shackles of Barry's defense.

Ultimately, this is a huge spot showcase for two NFC contenders, but in my mind the pressure is squarely on the Eagles, who are losing a home game, by the way, to play at a neutral site. Philly got off to a 10-1 start last season. Jalen Hurts was the MVP favorite with six games remaining before one of the biggest in-season collapses in recent memory. The impetus will be on Philadelphia to prove that it's moved past that disaster stretch and is back on the short-list of NFC Super Bowl contenders.

I think we get a fun, fast-paced, back-and-forth game that remains in the balance deep into the fourth quarter. Give me Green Bay to pull off a statement win. If the Packers can confidently fly right through the Bermuda Triangle, they can win this game.

The pick: Packers 28 – Eagles 26

Sunday Early Slate

Pittsburgh Steelers at Atlanta Falcons

Spread: Falcons -3.0

Total: 42.0

Every year, it feels like the Steelers embark on a quest to win exactly nine games. No more, no less. That quest will begin on the road as new Pittsburgh OC Arthur Smith returns to Atlanta for an immediate revenge spot against his former team. No word yet on whether Smith will be honored pregame, or when the statue will officially be unveiled outside the stadium, but we'll circle back on that later in the season. 

For better or for worse, the Steelers will roll with Russell Wilson to begin the season after the veteran beat out Justin Fields in one of the most depressing QB battles in recent memory. Pittsburgh's relatively soft early-season schedule should give Wilson a decent runway, but I'd be shocked if we don't see Fields get his chance at some point. Either way, Wilson is the safer option of the two, and if the goal is to win nine games, Wilson might be the perfect man for the job. With no offensive weapons to speak of other than George Pickens, expect the Steelers to lean heavily on the run game.

Meanwhile, the Falcons have a new quarterback of their own in Kirk Cousins. While he'll have to answer lingering questions about his surgically repaired Achilles, a healthy Cousins is undoubtedly a massive upgrade over the Desmond Ridder-Taylor Heinicke two-headed monster that piloted Atlanta to seven wins a year ago. The Cousins-Bijan Robinson-Drake London-Kyle Pitts quartet is a tantalizing skill group, but they'll be tested right away against what could be one of the NFL's most complete defenses. Pitts, by the way, is apparently nursing a hamstring injury. Be sure to double-check his status before Sunday.

As the total implies, I think we see a low-scoring game in which both teams likely struggle to move the ball. Atlanta certainly has the potential for offensive fireworks, but I don't know that we see that right away. PIttsburgh will likely play it safe and try to grind out long drives, but this is an improved Atlanta defense that made a big leap last season and has since added Justin Simmons and Matthew Judon.

While this does feel like a classic "how the hell did Mike Tomlin win this game?" spot for Pittsburgh – and I could see Atlanta getting off to a slow start – I think the Falcons' defense can effectively limit Wilson and win this game. The U42.0 is my favorite play here.

The pick: Falcons 17 – Steelers 13

Arizona Cardinals at Buffalo Bills

Spread: Bills -6.5

Total: 48.0

If you've followed my work this offseason, you know I'm carrying a healthy skepticism of this Bills team into 2024. Yes, Josh Allen is a known wizard, but I can't shake the feeling that this could be somewhat of a "competitive reset" season for Buffalo. I'm not saying the Bills won't be a good team, I'm not saying they can't make the Playoffs, but I wouldn't be shocked if they're scrambling to win nine or 10 games in a difficult AFC East.

Even Buffalo's out-of-division schedule is brutal: vs. Jacksonville, at Baltimore, at Houston, at Seattle, at Indianapolis, vs. Kansas City, vs. San Francisco, at the Rams and at Detroit. Those are all really difficult spots. But of course our main concern is the Week 1 game at hand. Can the Bills get off on the right foot against what should be a lively Cards team?

I'll take Buffalo to win outright, but I think Arizona has enough firepower on offense to challenge a Bills defense that will be debuting some new starters in the secondary and will also be without its skeleton key in Matt Milano.

The pick: Bills 26 – Cardinals 20

Tennessee Titans at Chicago Bears

Spread: Bears -4.0

Total: 44.5

Very few times in NFL history has it been socially acceptable to be excited for a Titans-Bears game. But I'll say it: this is one of those times.

The Chicago side of things is pretty straightforward. Not only is the No. 1 overall pick, Caleb Williams, making his first career start, but he'll do so with more-than-adequate pieces around him – a rarity for any top pick.

Thanks to a few years' worth of asset management, the Bears have welcomed Williams into arguably the best situation we've ever seen for a highly drafted signal-caller. Think the complete opposite of the 2023 Panthers. With DJ Moore, Keenan Allen and another top-10 pick, Rome Odunze, in place, Williams has no shortage of weapons at his disposal, plus a solid defense that improved as last season went along. If Williams is up to the task, the Bears could be a ready-made playoff team in Year 1.

The Titans' side of the equation is a bit more complicated. After turning this over to Will Levis last season, then parting ways with Mike Vrabel, Tennessee appeared poised for an obvious rebuild. That could still be the case, but the Titans did not operate as a rebuilding team this offseason, bringing in veterans L'Jarius Sneed, Tony Pollard, Calvin Ridley and Tyler Boyd. It remains to be seen if those additions will bring as much production as they do name value, but the Titans don't appear to be a franchise content with winning five games this season.

Both teams will likely have some early kinks to work out, but this should be a competitive matchup between two quarterbacks who embrace risk-taking. I'll side with the Bears to cover and win by a field goal at home, but don't be surprised if Tennessee pushes to win this game outright.

The pick: Bears 23 – Titans 20

New England Patriots at Cincinnati Bengals

Spread: Bengals -7.5

Total: 40.5

Are the Bengals capable of having a normal offseason? I don't know that they are. 

This line opened at Bengals -8.0 before jumping to 9.5 and then settling down at 8.5 – at least for now. As you may have heard, Ja'Marr Chase's soft holdout continues, and it remains unclear if he'll be on the field in Week 1. For what it's worth, Zac Taylor disclosed earlier this week that the Bengals have "contingency plans", which to me indicates there's a real chance Chase could sit. However, Chase arrived at Wednesday's practice in full pads – not a definitive indicator of his status but a very good sign for Cincy.

Even with the Chase situation hanging over the Bengals, there's a reason this is by far the biggest mismatch in Week 1. Cincinnati has a history of sluggish starts, partially due to Joe Burrow injuries, over the last few years, but a bet in favor of Cincy is equally a bet against New England – perhaps the most talent-deficient team in the NFL. The Pats' defense enabled them to stay in games last season, and while there is some talent on that side of the ball, they'll struggle to replace Matthew Judon early on.

I wouldn't rule out a couple of shaky-looking possessions early on for Cincinnati, but over the course of four quarters the Bengals should be able to pull away, whether Chase is out there or not.

If you're rostering Rhamondre Stevenson in fantasy… I wish you the best of luck. Hopefully you're in a Point-Per-Tackled-Behind-The-Line-Of-Scrimmage league. 

The pick: Bengals 21 – Patriots 13

Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts

Spread: Texans -2.5

Total: 48.5

No team has generated more offseason hype than the Texans, who pushed their chips on Stefon Diggs and Joe Mixon to add even more firepower around C.J. Stroud. In the fantasy world, Diggs has been a polarizing addition, but it's tough to argue with the idea of adding as much talent as possible while you have a star quarterback on a rookie contract. 

Whatever concerns we may have about the receiving distribution in Houston, Diggs will make life more difficult for opposing defenses, who will already have their hands full with Nico Collins and Tank Dell. Could the Texans take some time to gel? Sure. But I'm of the belief that this offense can hit the ground running and threaten to pile up 30-plus points on a near-weekly basis.

Some interesting notes via Evan Abrams of The Action Network:

• Divisional home underdogs are 17-4 ATS since 2012
• Indianapolis is 1-14-1 ATS in Week 1 since 2008. The Colts haven't won a Week 1 game since 2013.

It's worth noting that the Colts beat Houston early last season and nearly toppled the Texans again (with Gardner Minshew) in Week 18. Indy is a well-coached team that tends to maximize its talent. Houston will need to limit Anthony Richardson and Jonathan Taylor on the ground, but if it can force Richardson into obvious passing situations, I like the Texans' chances to force a critical mistake or two. The Colts' streak of starting 0-1 pushes to 11 straight years. 

The pick: Texans 28 – Colts 23

Jacksonville Jaguars at Miami Dolphins

Spread: Dolphins -3.5

Total: 49.0

Miami has a reputation as a team that starts fast, and for good reason. Under Mike McDaniel, the Dolphins have started 3-0 SU in each of the last two seasons and are 3-0 ATS at home in September. A year ago, Miami hung 36 points and 536 yards on the Chargers in a Week 1 shootout for the ages. Two weeks later came The Achane Game against the Broncos.

Now, whether Miami can sustain that early-season level of play come December remains to be seen. But that's a question for a later day. I just can't shake this feeling that Mike McDaniel has been holed up in his office all summer scheming up a bag of tricks to unleash on Doug Pederson in Week 1. Miami has the speed and personnel to win any shootout – hell, they might prefer it that way – and if this turns into a race to 35 points, I don't trust the Jaguars to keep up.

In general, it's usually not a great sign when a team refuses to disclose who will be calling plays four days before Week 1.

For Jacksonville to keep this within a field goal, they'll need a monster effort out of a defense that added a few veterans but still has major question marks at linebacker. After grading out as one of the worst tackling teams in the league last season, that's a big ask. 

The pick: Dolphins 33 – Jaguars 27

Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints

Spread: Saints -4.0

Total: 41.5

All eyes will be on Bryce Young as he begins Year 2 with a new head coach in Dave Canales. It goes without saying that Young's rookie year was a disaster, but it's difficult to assess just how much blame for the Panthers' 2-15 record should be placed on Young. Carolina was a mess from the top down last season, and the talent around the rookie quarterback was about as uninspiring as it gets.

While the Panthers did add pass-catching help in the form of Diontae Johnson and rookie Xavier Leggette, I'm more interested to see how much of a step forward the new-look offensive line – headlined by Damien Lewis and Robert Hunt – can take. 

On the Saints' side of things, they're essentially running it back but with a new offensive coordinator in Klint Kubiak. Watching the patented Derek Carr Checkdown Raid Offense last season was borderline torture, and while Kubiak should inject some life into the passing game, I'm not sure New Orleans has the personnel to make a meaningful leap. If the Saints weren't in the NFC South, they'd be a clear non-Playoff team for me.

With all of that said, even in what should be an improved situation for Young, the Panthers remain one of the least-talented offenses in the NFL. I'm generally in favor of Young looking more like a No. 1 pick this season, but I want to see it first. Carolina hangs around, but New Orleans wins ugly.

The pick: Saints 20 – Panthers 14

Minnesota Vikings at New York Giants

Spread: Vikings -1.5

Total: 41.0

Just a really cruel Week 1 matchup from the NFL schedule-makers. Every year, I do a confidence points pick 'em league with my college friends where we rank each game 1-to-16 and I've had this one parked in the 1-point spot all summer. It will not be leaving that spot before Sunday. This is our first Nick Whalen Stay-Away of the Week.

Considering the Giants last their quarterback in October and had the worst offensive line in football last season, it's a semi-miracle that this team found its way into six wins. With the exception of Malik Nabers, talent-wise, they're not a whole lot better than last season. New York will be banking on the rookie out of LSU to make a major impact right away, as well as Jones returning to 2022 form. Brian Daboll will also take over play-calling from Mike Kafka, which is probably a good sign after the Giants scored on just 23 percent of their drives last season (31st in NFL).

The Vikings, meanwhile, will enter Sam Darnold Mode after J.J. McCarthy underwent knee surgery last month. There's a good chance Darnold was going to be starting this game regardless, but with the promise of McCarthy stepping in and giving this offense a jolt at some point gone, it feels like Minnesota is stuck in a year-long holding pattern.

While Darnold still has his lingering apologists, he's ultimately a mistake-prone passer who's yet to revive his career after washing out with the Jets. This may be his best – and perhaps final – chance to do so, and he should be able to operate with some degree of security. This is firmly Darnold's job until he plays his way out of it.

Talent-wise, the Vikings have more advantages, but Daboll has proven to maximize average talent in the past. If Darnold can limit mistakes, Minnesota should be able to win a close, low-scoring game on the road. This is another spot where I love the U41.5.

The pick: Vikings 20 – Giants 17

Sunday Afternoon Slate

Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers

Spread: Chargers -3.0

Total: 40.5

Are the Chargers going to be good? is one of the basic questions I've grappled with most this offseason. I think I've settled in the camp that they'll at least be a fixture on the "In The Hunt" graphic come Week 16, but I want to see what this team looks like under Jim Harbaugh before I officially buy in.

Losing Keenan Allen, MIke Williams and Austin Ekeler is a massive change, and while Williams was always hurt and Ekeler was a shell of himself last season, fully buying in on the Chargers requires a strong belief in the Harbaugh mystique – the idea that his presence instantly elevates an entire franchise. Regardless of which camp you find yourself in, Harbaugh has to be viewed as an upgrade over Brandon Staley, whose tenure fittingly came to an end against this very Raiders team following last season's 63-21 "what the hell was that?" game. 

After making a mid-season change of their own, the Raiders have opted to stick with Antonio Pierce, who led Vegas to a 5-4 finish in 2023. The Pierce story was nice, but having now shed the interim label, he'll face real expectations. Those expectations will be pinned on the unheeding arm of Gardner Minshew, at least to start the season. If nothing else, Minshew will bring some fun – some pizazz, if you will – to the Raiders, but pizazz only gets you so far in the NFL.

Top to bottom, I'm not a huge fan of either roster, but the one massive advantage in favor of the Chargers comes at the most important position on the field. Justin Herbert may not be asked to win this game single handedly, but I'll put my faith in him avoiding mistakes and making the necessary throws to lead Los Angeles to a slog of a Week 1 victory.

The pick: Chargers 24 – Raiders 17

Denver Broncos at Seattle Seahawks

Spread: Seattle -6.0

Total: 41.5

We'll get our first real taste of the new-look Seahawks in the late window, as Mike MacDonald makes his head coaching debut after coming over from Baltimore this offseason. Without taking up too many words, I'll be frank: I'm in on this Seattle team. It was time to move on from Pete Carroll, and the MacDonald-Ryan Grubb combination is an excellent fit for a team that needed a reset.

After starting the year 6-3, Seattle's defense fell off a cliff last season, finishing the year allowing at least 135 rushing yards in seven straight games (and at least 160 in six of those) while forcing just five turnovers in that span. Offensively, the Seahawks were a relatively efficient unit but struggled on third downs and in the red zone while finishing dead last in the NFL in total plays. Grubb has vowed to make this a new-look, uptempo offense that should better suit Kenneth Walker, DK Metcalf, Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Zach Charbonnet. 

Of course, all of that is easier said than done, but I like this spot for Seattle to get off to a hot start. Bo Nix turned some heads over the final two weeks of the preseason, but going up to Seattle and playing against first-teamers could be a jarring experience. There's a significant level-up between facing preseason defenses and a first-team unit with multiple weeks to prepare. Nix's safe, get-the-ball-out approach should give the Broncos a higher floor than last season, but I don't see that being enough to keep up with Seattle. 

Sean Payton is not a rebuilding coach, but he's starting a rookie quarterback and just let two veterans – Tim Patrick and Samaje Perine – walk two weeks before the season. I think Denver is realistic about where this roster stands. Give me the Seahawks to win by two scores and Smith-Njigba to make an early statement after a quiet rookie season.

The last rookie quarterback to win a Week 1 game – SU or ATS – on the road in his first NFL start? Sam Darnold and the Jets, when they somehow hung 48 points on the Lions in 2018.

The pick: Seahawks 27 – Broncos 17

Dallas Cowboys at Cleveland Browns

Spread: Browns -2.5

Total: 41.0

This is one of the most difficult games to evaluate for a number of reasons. It starts at quarterback for Cleveland. I am definitively not a Deshaun Watson believer, but the Browns are obligated to continue rolling him out as long as he's healthy. Watson's record as a starter (8-4 SU) is certainly better than he's actually looked, but if nothing else that speaks to the coaching and pieces around him. Cleveland won't have one of those pieces in Nick Chubb, but that's only a minor concern for me after Jerome Ford looked the part of a more-than-capable stand-in last season.

On the Dallas side, CeeDee Lamb is back in the mix, but this is a very top-heavy roster – especially at the skill positions. If Lamb gets off to a slow start, the Cowboys have very few reliable options behind him.

You could pretty easily talk me into either side here. Despite my lack of belief in Watson, I'll fall back on the Browns' overall talent and faith in their defense. If Jedrick Wills (knee) is able to play, that might seal the deal. Cleveland was a much better team at home last season, going 8-1 ATS/SU and covering by an average of more than six points per game.

The pick: Browns 21 – Cowboys 17

Washington Commanders at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Spread: Buccaneers -3.0

Total: 44.0

I've been going back and forth on this game and will probably end up staying away. The number has moved from Bucs -4.0 down to -3.0, and I certainly wouldn't be surprised if Washington is able to keep this close – or even win outright – in Jayden Daniels' NFL debut. Tampa Bay won the NFC South, and a Wild Card game, a year ago, but the Bucs were 4-7 at one point before taking advantage of a soft schedule down the stretch.

Daniels is the clear X factor for Washington. If he's able to get loose and challenge the Bucs' defense, the Commanders will have a chance to pull the upset. I do worry, of course, that I may be too optimistic on the rookie quarterback making his first career start on the road. Washington hangs around, but Tampa Bay wins a close one.

The pick: Buccaneers 24 – Commanders 20

Sunday Night Football

Los Angeles Rams at Detroit Lions

Spread: Lions -3.5

Total: 50.5

Week 1 is loaded with tight matchups, but this might be my favorite game of the week. A rematch of last year's Wild Card thriller, the Rams will get an immediate chance to exact revenge on Detroit, which prevailed in that game 24-23.

In terms of skill players, both sides are loaded. The Rams have two excellent pass-catchers in Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua, while the addition of Blake Corum gives them another option alongside Kyren Williams. Detroit will need a big step forward from Jameson Williams, but even if that doesn't happen, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta and my favorite running back combination (Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery) should be enough to carry Detroit to another strong regular season.

I really like this Rams team, but obviously replacing Aaron Donald is nearly an impossible task. LA invested two early picks in Jared Verse and Braden Fiske, but both of those rookies will need to play at a high level right away against what may be the best offensive line in the NFL. 

I was tempted to pick the Rams to win outright, but their injuries along the offensive line are a major concern, and it's tough to imagine the Lions coming out flat in a Sunday night home game.

Rams keep it close and cover the 3.5, but a fourth-quarter field goal from Jake Bates proves to be the difference.

The pick: Lions 27 – Rams 24

Monday Night Football

New York Jets at San Francisco 49ers

Spread: 49ers -4.5

Total: 44.0

For as much as I may decry the NFL for forcing us to pick a Vikings-Giants game in Week 1, we have to give credit where it's due: the schedule-makers went off with these four primetime games. Aaron Rodgers making his return in San Francisco is the perfect way to cap off Week 1.

With Trent Williams and Brandon Aiyuk back in the mix, most of our questions surrounding this Niners team have evaporated, but it was still a bizarre offseason for the NFL's most-talented team. Once again, the Niners came up short last season, and I'm starting to get the feeling that this may be their last great chance to make a Super Bowl run (and actually win said Super Bowl). A ring is still very much in the cards, but this wasn't exactly the laser-focused summer you hoped for as a Niners fan.

For as consistent as the Niners have been under Kyle Shanahan, they're just 3-4 SU in Week 1 games. San Francisco also closed last season on a seven-game ATS losing streak at home (including playoffs). On top of that, the Super Bowl loser is just 5-19 ATS since 2000, per the Action Network.

I have some skepticism as to just how high-powered this Jets offense will be under Rodgers. Beyond Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall, it's not an overly loaded offense. But we can't overstate how much of an upgrade even a diminished version of Rodgers will be over Zach Wilson and Tim Boyle.

The Jets somehow won seven games last season, including a monster Week 1 upset over Buffalo after Rodgers went down. If the defense can sustain at close to the same level, the jump in quarterback competency should be a massive difference-maker.

I won't go as far as to pick the Jets to win outright, but New York's defense should be able to limit what could be a rusty Niners offense out of the gates. Niners win, Jets cover on the road.

The pick: 49ers 23 – Jets 20