Beating the Book: Handicapping Week 13

Last week was a good one -- I went 11-3 overall, won my best bet, the Seahawks, and went 3-2 in the Super Contest (the losses due to my partner's picks.)

This week, I especially like the Cardinals, Bengals, 49ers and Raiders, but I'm lukewarm on the Bills, Jaguars, Chargers and Vikings. 

For the podcast version of the article click here.

THANKSGIVING DAY

Bears -3.5 at Lions

I had this as Bears minus 1.5, so I'm on the Lions getting the field goal and the hook. Mitchell Trubisky is essentially Jeff Driskell at this point, and the Lions have the better kicker, something that might matter in this one. Take the points. 

Bears 17 - 16

Bills +6.5 at Cowboys

I wanted to be on the Cowboys, but I made the line six, and the market wanted it more than I did. I liked it a lot better at seven, but I'm still taking the Bills at 6.5. 

Cowboys 26 - 20

THURSDAY NIGHT

Saints -7 at Falcons

This is a huge line given what happened three weeks ago at New Orleans. Maybe the Saints bounce back and crush them, but the Falcons were an easy call for me. Take the points. 

Saints 27 - 23

EARLY GAMES

Packers -6.5 at Giants

I made this line 7.5, as the Giants don't play defense and can't run or pass block. The Packers need a get-well game after the blowout in San Francisco, and this is it. 

Packers 31 - 23

Redskins +10 at Panthers

I wanted to be on the Panthers, so I made this line 9.5, but again, the market wanted it more. I'm never thrilled backing a doormat on the road, but bet the number, not the team. 

Panthers 24 - 16

49ers +6 at Ravens

I made this line three, as both teams were incredibly impressive last week. I don't love that the Niners are playing an early body-clock game on the east coast, but that's somewhat offset by having an extra day to get ready as the Ravens played Monday night. Take the points. 

Ravens 27 - 24

Titans +2.5 at Colts

I've been on the Colts all year, and they've been solid, but the Ryan Tannehill Titans are probably the better team, especially if T.Y. Hilton doesn't suit up. Take the points. 

Titans 24 - 23

Eagles -9.5 at Dolphins

I made this line 4.5, thought it would be six and was blown away when it turned out to be 9.5. The Eagles offense has been a joke, and though it wouldn't surprise me if they got well against the Dolphins, I have to see it first. Take the points. 

Eagles 23 - 17

Buccaneers +1 at Jaguars

The Jaguars are just about league average, while the Bucs play above or below it almost at random. I made this line 2.5, so I'm narrowly on the Jaguars. 

Jaguars 27 - 24

Jets -3.5 at Bengals

The Jets looked great last week, but I'll sell high on the road against a winless Bengals team with their starting QB back. Take the points. 

Bengals 23 - 21

Browns -2 at Steelers

I was fine getting less than the full three with the Browns on the road, but I don't think I can lay the wood with no Myles Garrett and a vast coaching discrepancy. Take the points. 

Browns 20 - 19

LATE GAMES

Rams -3 at Cardinals

I made this line Rams plus 2.5, so this seems like a gift. Not only are the Cardinals much better offensively, but they're coming off a bye, and the Rams defense was on the field for 40 minutes Monday night. 

Cardinals 23 - 20

Chargers -2.5 at Broncos

I made this line exactly 2.5, so it's a coin flip. Whenever I bet on the Chargers I lose, but I like that they're coming off a bye. Lay the wood. 

Chargers 22 - 19

Raiders +9.5 at Chiefs

I had this line at 6.5, so I'm firmly on the Raiders. Sure, the Chiefs could get it together and blow them out, but I want to see that version of the Chiefs first. The Raiders were bad last week, but I'll write that off in part to an early body-clock east coast game. I expect both teams to move the ball and put up points. 

Chiefs 30 - 27

SUNDAY NIGHT

Patriots -3 at Texans

I had this line at 3.5, and I expect the Patriots to move the ball against an average Texans defense, while largely stifling DeShaun Watson and his receivers. Lay the wood. 

Patriots 24 - 17

MONDAY NIGHT

Vikings +3 at Seahawks

I'm torn here. I made the line exactly three. I love the Seahawks at home, but I like that the Vikings are coming off a bye and likely get Adam Thielen back. In the end, I think it'll be close, and I'd rather have the points. 

Seahawks 26 - 24

For the podcast version of the article click here.

Last week, I went 11-3, won my best bet (the Seahawks), and went 3-2 in the Super Contest. I'm now 85-89-2 on the year, 6-6 on best bets and 28-30-2 in the Super Contest. Last year I went 141-106-9 on the season, 10-7 on best bets, 48-36-1 in the Super Contest. From 1999-2018, I've gone 2,563-2,373 (51.9%), not including ties.