Beating the Book: Seattle Stays Hot, Bucs Outlast Rams + Full Week 9 NFL Picks and Predictions

This article is part of our Beating the Book series.

Welcome to the Week 9 edition of Beating the Book, where we'll look to build on last week's 9-6 ATS showing.

As usual, we still had a few notable misses – I will not be commenting on my best bet; thank you for respecting my privacy during this difficult time – but on the whole I'm encouraged with where we sit as we approach the halfway point in the season. 

Leading up to Week 9, the NFL trade deadline dominated the headlines, as names like Roquan Smith, TJ Hockenson, Bradley Chubb and Chase Claypool found themselves on the move. As a result, Denver, Detroit and Chicago look to be among the teams that recognize they won't be contending in 2022 and will instead focus their efforts on building toward the future. That doesn't mean we can simply cross them off for the rest of the season, of course, but selling off key assets will obviously impact the product on the field.

For the first time this season, we have six teams on bye in Week 9: the Browns, Cowboys, Broncos, Giants, Steelers and 49ers. Not having San Francisco and Dallas in the mix is a tough break from a watchability standpoint, but I'm extremely relieved to get a week off from having to think about the Broncos.

The Week 9 slate features three notably big favorites in the Eagles, Bills and Chiefs. Two of those teams – Philly and Buffalo – have favorable matchups on the road, while the Titans, winners of five straight, aren't getting much respect as they head to Arrowhead for Sunday Night Football.

Before we dig in on Week 9, let's take our customary look back at the best and worst calls from my Week 8 picks.

Last week: 9-6 ATS; 11-4 straight up; best bet lost (Bills -11.0 vs. Packers)

On the season: 62-57-4 ATS; 78-44-1 straight up; 2-6 best bets

Best calls of Week 8: 

• If Denver can find a way to put a couple of touchdowns on the board -- a big ask, I'm aware -- I like their chances to frazzle Trevor Lawrence and force the Jags to beat themselves for the fifth straight week.
• In a big week for Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill at Charles Rogers Field, I like a healthy Dolphins team to finally kick-start its passing game and cover the 3.5 points on the road.

Worst calls of Week 8:

• If the Saints get a few of those key players back, I'd consider flip-flopping. But for now I'll take a deep breath and pray that the Raiders continue to feed Josh Jacobs en route to a narrow win on the road.
• Against Cleveland, stopping the run is always the key, so the Bengals will have their work cut out for them slowing down Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. I like their chances to contain that duo, while Joe Burrow could have another field day against a floundering Cleveland secondary that's badly missed Denzel Ward the last two weeks.

NFL Week 9 Picks: Predictions, Props and Best Bets for Every Game

As will be the case every week throughout the regular season, we'll start with Thursday Night Football and go game-by-game, picking each contest against the spread. My best bet will always be highlighted in gold.

All odds this week via FanDuel, as of Wednesday at Noon ET.

Thursday Night Football

Philadelphia Eagles (-14.0) at Houston Texans

While it feels like the Bills have emerged as the consensus best team in the NFL, the Eagles continue to quietly take care of business in impressive fashion week in and week out. The league's only undefeated team made quick work of the Steelers in Week 8 thanks to three touchdown grabs by A.J. Brown and another sterling performance from Jalen Hurts.

The final score in Houston last week implies that the Texans were able to hang around with Tennessee, but well over half of the Texans' total offense came on their final, garbage-time-adjacent drive of the game. Houston wasn't able to get anything going against the Titans' defense – 18 rush attempts, 43 yards – while Tennessee was able to move the ball at the ground at will, despite an obvious lack of trust in Malik Willis.

Early on, it felt like the Texans could be somewhere between sparky and frisky, but that hope has quickly faded. I don't see the Eagles having much trouble taking care of business and moving to 8-0.

The pick: Eagles 30 – Texans 14

Sunday Early Games

Los Angeles Chargers (-3.5) at Atlanta Falcons

The Chargers needed their Week 8 bye as badly as any team, but unfortunately they emerge from the week off still dealing with multiple injuries to key players. Mike Williams, Rashawn Slater, Joey Bosa and J.C. Jackson are all battling longer-term injuries, while Keenan Allen appears to be questionable-at-best for Week 9. If Allen doesn't play, the Chargers will be extremely reliant on Austin Ekeler to carry the offense – a dangerous formula, to say the least.

Meanwhile, the Falcons – that's the NFC South-leading Falcons to you, pal – are hoping to get Cordarrelle Patterson back this week. If he returns from IR, that gives Atlanta yet another weapon to unleash in what's been a productive rushing attack. 

Defensively, both of these teams have major issues – Los Angeles is awful against the run; Atlanta is terrible against the pass – that seem to line up well for the opponent. However, given the Chargers' injury situation, I can't help but lean every so slightly in favor of Atlanta. If the Falcons are able to corral Austin Ekeler and keep Justin Herbert from throwing downfield, I like their chances to pull off the home upset. 

Give me the Falcons to cover, win outright and continue applying pressure to free-falling Tampa Bay.

The pick: Falcons 27 – Chargers 25

Miami Dolphins (-5.0) at Chicago Bears

Going into last week, I still had some lingering questions about a Dolphins team that had scored 21 or fewer points in six of its first seven games, but it turned out facing the Lions' defense was all Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle needed to get back on track. While Miami's defense had some concerning letdowns in the first half, it also gets credit for pitching a shutout over the final two quarters.

In the days since that win over Detroit, the Dolphins have only improved their roster, adding Bradley Chubb from Denver, as well as Jeff Wilson from San Francisco. Who knows how much of an impact both players will have in Week 9, but if nothing else it's a signal to the locker room – and the rest of the league – that Miami is all in for this season. 

Conversely, the Bears sold off a pair of key defensive pieces in Roquan Smith and Robert Quinn. They did add a weapon for Justin Fields in Chase Claypool, though I'm not sure he'll make an immediate impact for what remains the NFL's worst passing offense.

In recent weeks, Fields and the Bears have proven that they're not a complete doormat, but I like Miami to travel north and win with relative ease. The absence of Smith is a massive blow to the Bears' defense.

The pick: Dolphins 31 – Bears 23

Carolina Panthers (+7.5) at Cincinnati Bengals

At long last, it's the first showdown of the season between two big cat teams. Overall, it hasn't been a banner year for The Big Four. None of Cincinnati, Detroit, Jacksonville or Carolina currently have a winning record, and they've combined to go just 9-22 straight up (13-18 ATS).

Cincinnati has a chance to get back on the right side of .500 this week, and while I do think the Bengals bounce back from an ugly showing in Cleveland on Monday night, I still have some major concerns about this offense. For one, it simply cannot run the ball effectively. When it comes to playing football, that's not good. I don't have the numbers in front of me, but I'm fairly certain the Bengals lead the league in first-down carries that go for two yards or less.

Beyond that, the offensive line looks equally shaky, if not more shaky, than it did a season ago. Against the Browns, Jonah Williams was the primary culprit, but this is a unit that simply hasn't taken the necessary step forward. Through eight games, Joe Burrow is on pace to be sacked roughly 10 more times than last season (I actually did the very rudimentary math on this one). 

On the other side, Carolina is riding some serious momentum, even after losing in heartbreaking fashion last week against the Falcons. Despite dealing Christian McCaffrey and starting an XFL quarterback, Carolina clearly is not going to roll over and mail in the rest of the season.

After allowing 440 total yards to the Browns, Cincinnati will have its work cut out for it slowing down D'Onta Foreman. I think the Bengals get the job done, but I'll take Carolina to cover.

The pick: Bengals 27 – Panthers 20

Green Bay Packers (-3.5) at Detroit Lions

Despite Green Bay taking a fourth straight loss, I miraculously came away from last week's game against Buffalo feeling slightly better about the Packers. Aaron Rodgers took some shots down field, Matt LaFleur remembered he has Aaron Jones and the defense even forced a pair of turnovers. Buffalo playing a sloppy second half, including back-to-back Josh Allen interceptions, certainly helped, but Green Bay deserves at least some credit for avoiding complete embarrassment.

The problem is that's what Green Bay's entire game plan seemed to be based around. From the jump, and especially in the second half, it felt like the Packers were on a mission to cover the 11.0-point spread – not necessarily to win the game. For a team that a couple months ago many thought might meet Buffalo in the Super Bowl, Sunday night felt like a depressing admittance by Green Bay that it simply isn't anywhere close to the Bills' level.

With the Packers once again forgetting that the trade deadline exists, there's little hope for this team making the leap toward true contender status. But they're going to need to start reeling off wins to even have a chance at a Wild Card spot. Perhaps other than their Week 18 rematch at Lambeau Field, this meeting with Detroit – which just sold off one of its top offensive weapons in T.J. Hockenson – is probably the Packers' most-winnable game remaining on the schedule.

Green Bay has already made it very, very clear that there are no guarantees this season, but this is essentially a must-win if they want to salvage any shred of optimism heading into a brutal, three-games-in-15-days stretch that includes matchups against Dallas, Tennessee and Philadelphia.

With Detroit's defense in shambles and the Packers seemingly (maybe? possibly?) finding a rhythm with their ground game, I'll take Green Bay to win a close game that officially puts Dan Campbell on the hot seat.

The pick: Packers 27 – Lions 24

Las Vegas Raiders (-1.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars

Editor's note: Due to general safety concerns and RotoWire's explicit language policy, Nick has declined to write anything about either of these teams.

The pick: Raiders 23 – Jaguars 21

Indianapolis Colts (+5.5) at New England Patriots

I went into last week borderline-excited about what Sam Ehlinger could bring to the Colts' offense. Ultimately, he didn't provide more than a minor spark, but I still think it was the right move to shake things up for a team that clearly needed some sort of change. Had it not been for two fumbles deep in Washington territory, poor coaching decisions down the stretch and Terry McLaurin big-dogging Stephon Gilmore on a jump ball, the Colts would be sitting at 1-0 with Ehlinger.

Unfortunately for the Texas product, the Colts were unable to schedule a rematch against the Commanders this week. Instead, he'll go up against a Pats defense that forced Zach Wilson into three interceptions this past Sunday. I expect the Colts come out with a more conservative game plan, but Indy remains one of the league's worst running teams, despite employing Jonathan Taylor. Speaking of, Taylor did not practice on Wednesday, and Colts also dealt away Nyheim Hines at the deadline.

The Pats' offense didn't look overly potent with Mac Jones at the helm against the Jets, but for the second week in a row, New England should be able to get by without many explosive plays. Indy's defense has been quietly good against the run, however, so I don't think we get a blowout.

In the end, Bill Belichick loves nothing more than scheming for an inexperienced quarterback -- especially one who might be without his starting running back. Pats win and cover at home to keep up in the competitive AFC East.

The pick: Patriots 23 – Colts 17

Buffalo Bills (-12.5) at New York Jets

Last week felt like the Jets' Super Bowl, and a chance to prove that they're a legitimate playoff contender in the AFC. While some key injuries played a factor, the 22-17 loss to New England felt like a stark reminder that it's very, very difficult to win in the NFL when you don't trust your quarterback.

Zach Wilson did throw for 355 yards – far and away a career-high – but he tossed three brutal interceptions that forced the Jets to play from behind for virtually the entire second half. New York is still very much an aggressive, fun-to-watch, team on the rise, but the Breece Hall injury really feels like it sucked the momentum out of their 5-2 start. For a team in need of a bounceback, a matchup against the Bills is truly the worst-case scenario.

With Buffalo coming off of a messy win over Green Bay on Sunday night, I expect the Bills to refocus and lay the wood at Laveranues Coles Stadium.

The pick: Bills 33 – Jets 17

Minnesota Vikings (-3.5) at Washington Commanders

After a 1-4 start, the Commanders have gone full Lazarus Mode and enter Week 9 riding a three-game winning streak. Granted, those came against Chicago, Green Bay and Indianapolis, but a win is a win. People tend to forget that. It's difficult to point to exactly how or why Washington is winning games, but what stands out is that the defense has allowed only seven, 21 and 16 points in those three victories. 

The 6-1 Vikings have won five straight one-score games and have put up at least 28 points in four of those wins. It hasn't always been convincing – in fact, it's almost never been convincing – but regardless of what the metrics say, the Vikings are running away with the NFC North. Given how closely Minnesota has played teams like Chicago, New Orleans and Detroit of late, I think this 3.5-point spread makes sense.

The Commanders should be able to generate pressure on Kirk Cousins and force Minnesota into some abbreviated drives – Washington ranks first in QB hits and fourth in pressure rate – but over the course of 60 minutes I'll take the Vikings' offense to win out. Vikings win and cover on the road.

The pick: Vikings 28 – Commanders 21

Sunday Late Games

Seattle Seahawks (+2.0) at Arizona Cardinals

We saw this matchup in Seattle a few weeks ago, and while it was a tightly contested game (Seattle won 19-9), it didn't live up to the points fest most expected. The Seahawks' defense, in particular, is better than we anticipated. Over the last three games, the Seattle ranks second in the NFL in defensive DVOA. Even so, I think we get a much different game script this time around. The oddsmakers at FanDuel seem to agree. This game carries the highest total of the week (50.5 points), as of Wednesday.

Slowly but surely, Seattle has grown into a team I feel fairly comfortable trusting week-to-week. Can I say the same about Arizona? No, I cannot. Although DeAndre Hopkins has brought a noticeable and much-needed jolt to the Cards' offense, this is still a defense that has trouble holding up against the pass. In a contender for sentence I did not expect to be typing at any point this season: MVP candidate Geno Smith could have a field day against a unit that both loves to blitz and also struggles to generate consistent pressure.

Seattle's secondary isn't much better than Arizona's, so I'm convinced we'll get a close game. I'll take the Seahawks to pull the minor upset on the road and win their fourth straight before heading to Munich for a Week 10 matchup against the Bucs.

The pick: Seahawks 31 – Cardinals 28

Los Angeles Rams (+2.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

In many ways, the Rams and Bucs, winners of the last two Super bowls, seem to be stuck in the same loop. Arguably the two best teams in the NFC a year ago, they've each fallen off faster and harder than anyone could have anticipated.

Both Tampa and LA enter Week 9 in desperate need of a win, and barring the first double-win in the history of organized football, only one team will head into Week 10 not in a full-on panic. While the Rams probably need this game more by virtue of playing in a tougher division, the Bucs feel like they're one more loss away from a top-down implosion. The vibes, as they say, have not been good. 

Nearing the midway point, both teams rank in the bottom-third of the league in offensive EPA. The Rams have just seven passing touchdowns (and eight interceptions) in seven games. The Bucs have an NFL-low three touchdowns on the ground in eight games. Tampa Bay is putting up only 18.3 points per game, while the Rams (16.9 PPG) rank ahead of only the Texans, Colts, Broncos and Steelers in that category. Not exactly good company.

At this point, we've seen enough from both teams that a drastic, midseason turnaround feels completely out of reach. Frankly, I'm not sure which side I trust more to get its act together. With extreme levels of reluctance, I'll take the Bucs to cover a low number – partially because they're at home and partially because Cooper Kupp may not be at 100 percent.

The pick: Buccaneers 17 – Rams 14

Sunday Night Football

Tennessee Titans (+12.5) at Kansas City Chiefs

The last time we saw Kansas City, it went on the road and blew out the 49ers in Christian McCaffrey's debut. Now coming out of a bye, there's plenty of reason to believe the Chiefs are in a great spot this week, but spotting the Titans 12.5 is a bit high to me.

Of course, this number depends heavily on the status of Ryan Tannehill, who missed Week 8 due to an ankle injury, as well as an illness. To the Titans' credit, they perfectly executed the Derrick Henry Raid offense with Malik Willis under center against Houston. But if Tannehill sits again, Tennessee can't expect to get away with such a limited air attack against this Chiefs team, which added Kadarius Toney to the mix before the bye.

Mike Vrabel has had Andy Reid's number of late – Tennessee handled Kansas City 27-3 in Week 7 last season – so I don't see the Titans getting blown out, even if there's a significant gap in overall talent.

Give me the Chiefs to win but the Titans to cover a big number on the road.

The pick: Chiefs 27 – Titans 17

Monday Night Football

Baltimore Ravens (-2.5) at New Orleans Saints

Did the Saints' defense finally turn a corner last week against the Raiders, or is Vegas just that bad? That's the question I've been trying to answer as I look ahead to this Monday Night Football showdown.

As seems to be the case every week for both of these teams, injuries will go a long way toward coloring my final opinion. For the Saints, we have no idea if Jarvis Landry, Michael Thomas or Marshon Lattimore will be available. On the Baltimore side, Gus Edwards and Mark Andrews are banged up, while J.K. Dobbins remains on IR and Rashod Bateman is dealing with a multi-week injury.

Even without Bateman and Andrews, the Ravens played a strong second half against the Bucs last week. The lack of options at receiver is a major concern, but as long as Andrews is available, I trust Baltimore to keep up with a Saints offense that's quietly putting up 29.6 points per game over its last five contests. Despite the Andy Dalton-led scoring binge, New Orleans is only 2-3 in those games, having allowed 28, 32, 30 and 42 points prior to blanking the Raiders in Week 8. 

I don't feel great about this game, but by now we know better than to trust Dalton in primetime. Boosted by the addition of Roquan Smith, I'll take the Ravens to win a close one on the road, but the Saints cover.

The pick: Ravens 26 – Saints 24