Best Ball Journal: Post-Combine ADP Movement Among Rookies

This article is part of our Best Ball Strategy series.

I always find it useful to keep track of ADPs early in the offseason, even when I'm not actually drafting any teams. If nothing else, these early estimates of redraft value help me in dynasty leagues, where trade negotiations in February and March are impacted by the perceived strength and composition of the incoming rookie class.

For veteran NFL players, most of the major ADP changes throughout winter and early spring are a product of trades, cuts or even just rumors. For rookies, we always see a lot of movement after the scouting combine, followed by massive shifts a couple months later after the NFL Draft. In between, there will be a lot of pro days, but that's more sporadic in terms of the information gained and how it impacts ADP.

While far from make-or-break in terms of evaluating prospects, the combine does provide useful data points for dozens of incoming rookies. Best-ball drafters may overreact to this information, but there are also cases where they seem to under-react or simply ignore it.

The first thing you'll see below is a comparison between Underdog ADPs from early March (after the combine) and the results from mid-February (when I wrote my first ADP-focused article of the 2025 offseason). After the chart, I'll discuss some of the rookies who moved way up or down, as well as a few others that didn't but maybe should have. 

ADP Rising

• RB Ashton Jeanty  (Feb. ADP 14.6 > March ADP 13.5) 

Jeanty is now ahead of both Christian McCaffrey and Derrick Henry, which wasn't the case a few weeks ago. While he didn't work out at the combine, Jeanty's measurements (5-foot-9, 211 pounds) were in line with expectations and confirmed he has a denser-than-average build for an NFL lead back.

• RB Omarion Hampton (58.7 > 51.0)

Hampton was one of the biggest winners of the combine, running a 4.46 40 at 6-0, 221, with a 130-inch broad jump (t-2nd among RBs) and 38-inch vertical (t-7th). He skipped the cone drill and did poorly in the shuttle drill (4.40 seconds), but that's easily outweighed by proving he has an excellent combination of size and speed. Hampton quickly moved up by more than half a round in best-ball drafts, putting him closer to where I've had him ranked (No. 40 in my initial 2025 PPR rankings).

• RB TreVeyon Henderson (66.7 > 62.4)
• RB Quinshon Judkins (76.1 > 69.9)

Both OSU running backs showed well at the combine, with Henderson running a 4.42 40 (at 5-10, 202) and Judkins running a 4.48 (at 6-0, 221). They were also top five among RBs in both jumps, including a position-best, 132-inch broad jump by Judkins, who is a year younger than Henderson and 20 pounds heavier. Henderson is faster and more agile, but I slightly prefer Judkins between the two and think he's still a good draft value after gaining more than a half round of ADP.

• WR Matthew Golden (94.4 > 82.7)

Golden moved up a full round after blazing a 4.29 40 at 5-11, 191. He's on the thin side for a wide receiver in general, but not when compared to other guys with similar speed (not that there are many of them). Golden may now sneak into the first round of the NFL Draft, despite not having a dominant college season to his name. He did put up 38-584-7 in 2022 as a freshman starter at Houston, and he closed out his college career with 58-987-9 for Texas (albeit in 16 games). So it's not like his prospect profile is totally lacking in production... just that it's more based on physical tools, namely speed. He's only 21 years old, as well, turning 22 in August. Golden's new ADP late in the seventh round is a bit early for my liking, but it's not unreasonable.

• TE Colston Loveland (142.6 > 130.5)

This is an odd one, with Loveland's ADP rising a full round following a recent report that he's recovering from shoulder surgery. I guess the thinking is that his shoulder injury explains a mildly disappointing final season at Michigan, although horrible QB play seemed to be the main problem. For what it's worth, I thought Loveland was way undervalued beforehand, with my personal rankings putting him in Round 10 rather than Round 12. His new ADP splits the difference, landing late in Round 11.

• RB Bhayshul Tuten (235.5 > 165.5)

Frequently undrafted a couple weeks ago, Tuten is now well inside the Top 200 after running a 4.32 40 at 5-9, 206. He also had the best vertical jump (40.5 inches) among RBs and tied for the second-best broad jump (130 inches). Tuten is 22 years old and averaged 5.7 yards on 356 carries during his two years at Virginia Tech, including a 183-1,159-15 rushing line last year. Previously viewed as a late-Day 3 pick or UDFA, he may have run himself into the middle rounds. The new ADP is in line with that expectation, and there's a chance his ADP shoots up again at the end of April.

• RB RJ Harvey (196.1 > 173.9)

I put Harvey at No. 157 in my initial PPR rankings, not knowing he'd run a 4.40 40 while weighing in at 5-8, 205. He's stout, and fast, and put up huge numbers at UCF the past few years. The problem is that he's a late bloomer, already 24 years old, which means there's a higher bar to clear in terms of both production and workout numbers. However, he's now cleared those bars, and then some, looking very much the part of a solid pro. Consider me a fan, both in terms of real-life potential and the value at ADP (even after it rose by two rounds).

• WR Jayden Higgins (187.6 > 174.4)

Higgins ran a 4.47 40 at 6-4, 214, with a 39-inch vertical and 128-inch broad jump further proving his athleticism. He and Jaylin Noel both had 1,000+ yards and 8+ TDs for Iowa State last season, and both improved their draft stock at the combine.

• RB DJ Giddens (196.4 > 181.3)

Giddens ran a 4.43 40, but he's a bit on the thin side for a RB at 6-0, 212. The good news is that he was also near the top of his position for both broad and vertical jumps, plus he's only 21 years old (turns 22 in August). Giddens ran for 3,087 yards (6.0 YPC) and 23 TDs in three seasons at Kansas State, with 58 catches for 679 yards and four additional scores. His prospect profile looks to be that of a third/fourth-round pick, but maybe he'll fall a bit lower than that in a good draft for the position. Either way, he looks like a good pick at ADP right now.

• RB Damien Martinez (217.5 > 198.7)    

This one I don't really understand, as Martinez had a mediocre 40 time (4.51) and weighed a bit less (6-0, 217) than some had expected. I don't think he's a terrible prospect or anything like that, but he wasn't in my initial Top 200, and I don't understand why his best ball price just rose by two rounds.

• WR Jaylin Noel (226.0 > 201.4)

Noel ran a 4.39 40 at 5-10, 194, and he had the best broad jump (134 inches) and third-best vertical (41.5 inches) among wide receivers. It looks like both Iowa State receivers may be Day 2 picks, after putting up similar numbers in 2024.

• RB Brashard Smith (220.0 >204.5)

Smith ran a 4.39 40, albeit at 5-10, 194. He was already a divisive prospect, having spent three seasons as a depth wide receiver at Miami before exploding in 2024 as a running back for SMU (235-1,332-14 rushing, plus 39-327-2 receiving). He'll turn 22 in April, so age isn't working against him the way it is for a lot of position converts (although Tyrone Tracy seems to be working out pretty darn well). In any case, Smith still seems like a good value at this ADP, as he may end up a mid-round pick in the real-life draft.

• RB Jordan James (227.2 > 210.8)

This is another one that doesn't really make sense, with James having run a 4.55 40 at 5-10, 205. That's not disqualifying, but it's also not impressive. I guess sometimes best-ball drafters just like being reminded that a guy exists.

ADP Falling

• RB Devin Neal (126.8 > 131.9)

Neal isn't quite big enough (5-11, 213) to totally erase concerns about a 4.58 40, but he did at least show adequate athleticism with a 37.5-inch vertical and 124-inch broad jump. He'll likely still be a mid-round pick, and he may run the 40-yard dash again at his pro day. His 11th-round ADP seems about right to me.

• WR Isaiah Bond (150.8 > 157.4)

Bond is the rare prospect to lose value after running a 4.39 40. People were hoping for an even better time, possibly around 4.3, and Bond's measurements (5-11, 180) didn't do him any favors. It also didn't help that Texas teammate Matthew Golden was both faster and heavier, essentially putting up the numbers that many had hoped to see from Bond. At this point, a lot of Bond's value is based on hype and youth (turns 21 in March), more so than production, film and metrics. A better 40 time at his pro day could do wonders for Bond's draft stock.

• RB Ollie Gordon (155.9 > 167.4)

Gordon's 4.61 40 was disappointing even relative to his massive frame (6-1, 226). He looked like a potential first-round pick early in his college career but may end up a late-round pick when all is said and done. I had Gordon at No. 133 in my initial 2025 rankings, but that was with optimism about his pre-draft testing. Now I find myself closer to the ADP/consensus ranks.

• WR Xavier Restrepo (163.3 > 175.4)

Restrepo declined to do drills at the combine and apparently is being punished for it by fantasy drafters. That makes no sense to me, especially given that he weighed in at 5-10, 209, giving him an RB-like build that would excuse mediocre workout numbers. Maybe there's some concern about fluidity with a WR who is so stoutly built, but I hadn't really heard anything about that pre-combine. Buy the dip.

• QB Shedeur Sanders (171.8 > 182.6) 

Sanders didn't work out at the combine, and his measurements (6-2, 212, with 9.4-inch hands) were in line with both expectations and averages for his position. There seems to generally be more momentum for Cam Ward as the first QB drafted, and also some thought that neither guy will go within the first couple picks. I'm not really sure what to make of that, but I do know there's a narrow path to short-term fantasy relevance for a rookie QB who isn't especially mobile and isn't likely to be on a good team.

• RB Woody Marks (209.8 > 222.4)

Marks ran a 4.54 40 at 5-10, 207, and his jumps were among the worst at his position. He's already 24 years old, and wasn't a big-time producer in college at MSU before he transferred to USC for 2024. The appeal here is that he caught 261 passes throughout his college career, which could translate to a passing-down role at the next level even if he's not up to snuff as a pure runner.