NFL Picks and Predictions for Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Los Angeles Chargers
A preview of what could well be a wild-card matchup in January unfolds during this primetime clash, as the 5-3 Steelers pay a visit to the 6-3 Chargers.
With each team having fought through various challenges to get to this point and aiming for more consistency as they start the second half of the season, we break down odds and best bets for this Sunday night battle.
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Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Los Angeles Chargers Betting Odds
*Best lines at time of writing listed
- Moneyline: Steelers +136 (DraftKings) / Chargers -150 (BetMGM)
- Point spread: Steelers +3 (DraftKings) / Chargers -2.5 (BetMGM)
- Totals: Over 44.5 points (BetMGM) / Under 44.5 points (DraftKings)
The spread for this game has narrowed since before Week 9. The Steelers impressive win over the Colts undoubtedly altered the perception of some bettors. The number was at Chargers -4.5 prior to last Sunday, but it's been progressively bet down throughout the week to as low as between 2.5 and 3.0 points.
The total has also gotten smaller, and the combination of the improvement displayed by the Steelers' defense against Indianapolis and the Chargers losing left tackle Joe Alt for the season certainly played a part in lowering offensive expectations. The number sat at 46.5 before Week 9, and it subsequently went as low as 44.5 on multiple occasions before settling in at 45.5 heading into game day.
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Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Los Angeles Chargers Betting Picks
The Steelers' Aaron Rodgers has quieted a fair share of his critics through the first half of his debut campaign in the Steel City. He's thrown for 1,692 yards with a 17:5 TD:INT and posted his best completion rate (68.7 percent) since his penultimate Packers season in 2021. Offensive coordinator Arthur Smith has been relatively effective adapting his typically run-heavy style to Rodgers and the rest of the skill-position players, a group that sees a fairly steep drop-off after No. 1 receiver DK Metcalf.
The issue more often than not for Pittsburgh is its defense, an unusual problem to have in the Mike Tomlin era. The Steelers have already given up 33 points or more on three occasions, with a pair of those instances coming in two of their three losses. The road hasn't been unkind overall – the Steelers are 2-1 outside Acrisure Stadium – but they're giving up 25.0 points per road contest and the fifth-most yards per game (401.3) in that split
Those issues could certainly be costly against a talented offense like that of the Justin Herbert-led Chargers. They are healthy at the skill positions with the exception of Omarion Hampton, who remains on IR due to his ankle injury. Kimani Vidal has proven to be a solid fill-in, albeit sometimes subject to the offensive line's struggles because of injuries. Meanwhile Ladd McConkey, Quentin Johnston and Keenan Allen are a formidable top-three receiver group, and tight end Oronde Gadsden has skills befitting the receiver position and is therefore a significant mismatch at times for linebackers and safeties.
The Bolts offense has been on an upswing while averaging 29.0 points per game over the last three contests. Dating back to Week 6, the Chargers have scored 27 or more points in three of four games. Herbert has been especially locked in even longer, as he's completed 71.0 percent of his passes with an 11:5 TD:INT in the last five games.
With standout tackle Joe Alt out for the rest of the season due to an ankle injury, Herbert is likely to face some pressure from Pittsburgh's aggressive T.J. Watt-led pass rush. But the Bolts' trade for Trevor Penning at the deadline could certainly help make up for Alt's absence. Ultimately, I see the home squad having enough here for the victory, and an SGP where we hedge that a bit with the alternate spread and also given us more breathing room on the total is also a consideration.
Steelers vs. Chargers Best Bets:
- Chargers moneyline (-150 on BetMGM Sportsbook)
- SGP: Chargers Alt. Spread +3.5 and Under Alt. Total 50.5 (-105 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
Steelers vs. Chargers Prediction
Chargers 23, Steelers 20
This game has the right conditions to turn into more of a low-scoring defensive slugfest than a wide-open offensive showcase. The Steelers' defense should be able to get some pressure on Herbert due to Alt's absence, but Los Angeles still has a deeper offensive arsenal, and arguably, a better quarterback at this point of the two players' respective careers. Consequently, I see L.A. having just enough to squeeze out a lower-scoring home victory.
