This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
Buffalo Bills vs Cincinnati Bengals Betting Guide and Expert Picks
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The Cincinnati Bengals (12-4 in regular season, 1-0 in postseason) travel to Highmark Stadium on Sunday afternoon to take on the Buffalo Bills (13-3 in regular season, 1-0 in postseason) in an AFC Divisional Round Game.
This matchup is naturally steeped in no shortage of recent compelling history, considering the circumstances that led to the cancellation of the Week 17 clash between the teams. The game also holds plenty of intrigue from a pure football perspective, as the two teams are arguably more closely matched than the spread would imply.
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Cincinnati Bengals 
at Buffalo Bills 
for AFC Divisional Round Game
*Best lines at time of writing listed
Moneyline: Bengals +215 (FanDuel Sportsbook)/ Bills -240 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Point spread: Bengals +6 (BetMGM Sportsbook)/ Bills -5.5 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Total: Over 48.5 points (PointsBet Sportsbook)/ Under 49 points (BetMGM Sportsbook)
The spread has notably expanded in Buffalo's favor in recent days. The Bills were four-point home favorites to start the week, and after toggling between that figure and 4.5 the number shot up to five and then as high as six points at some sportsbooks as of Saturday night.
Meanwhile, the projected total has been going in the opposite direction. It sat at 50.5 to start the week, and after bouncing between that figure and 50 in the first couple of days, it sunk as low as 48.5 and then has bounced between that number and 49 as of Saturday night. The forecast of some light snow may be influencing the drop to an extent.
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Cincinnati Bengals at Buffalo Bills Betting Picks This Week
The Bengals traversed a tough path last January to surprisingly emerge from the AFC in Joe Burrow's second season, getting through the Titans and Chiefs on the road before putting in a very competitive performance in the Super Bowl against the Rams.
Cincinnati, therefore, has no shortage of postseason mettle, and that should be integral to Zac Taylor's squad keeping matters close in what should be an emotion-packed rematch with the Bills, at least early. The Bengals are one team that matches up well with Buffalo, which certainly displayed some vulnerability against a Dolphins team rolling with a seventh-round rookie at quarterback in the wild-card round.
Joe Burrow and his impressive array of skill-position talent didn't have much trouble moving the ball early on the Bills in Week 17 before the game's postponement, with Cincinnati racking up five first downs and 66 total yards in one possession-plus. Burrow also threw for 2,473 yards and generated a 22:7 TD:INT in nine road games this season while helping lead the Bengals to a 6-3 mark straight up when traveling.
The Bills naturally bring plenty to the table in their own right, and the comparison between the two offenses is nearly dead even. Josh Allen can certainly keep step for step with Burrow. Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis have the capability to maintain pace with Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, although Higgins is a more reliable down-to-down No. 2 option than the Bills' speedster.
Joe Mixon and Samaje Perine are countered effectively by Buffalo's Devin Singletary-James Cook duo, while Dawson Knox and Hayden Hurst represent reliable options at tight end for the hosts and visitors, respectively. Then, the two defenses are stout against the run and pass, and their overall metrics in the home/road splits that apply are nearly identical – the Bengals surrendered 356.1 total yards per road game at 5.5 yards per play, while the Bills yielded 355 yards per home contest at a clip of 5.4 yards per play during the 2022 campaign.
The Bengals were an AFC-best 7-2 ATS on the road this season, and Buffalo was only 3-5 against the number at home and as a home favorite specifically. Given that history and the way the matchups lineup so closely, I like Cincy to slide in under the number.
Bengals at Bills Best Bet: Bengals +6 (+110 at BetMGM Sportsbook)
Cincinnati Bengals at Buffalo Bills Prediction
Bills 26, Bengals 23
The winter elements will play a role to an extent here, but certainly not enough to slow down each team's potent offense. This has all the makings of a back-and-forth battle absent some game-changing early turnovers, and Cincinnati's 2021 postseason experience should serve Zac Taylor's squad very well in this high-stakes matchup in a hostile environment. Therefore, while I envision Buffalo escaping with a victory, it should be very close.
