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NFL Week 12 Circa Millions Picks
The NFL season approaches the 75% point, and as usual, it's become a blur. While, I'm just chugging along every Sunday eating like an absolute slob, you know I'm counting the moments until my precious College Baseball returns to me. With Thanksgiving around the corner, JohnnyVTV is here to stuff your pockets.
Detroit Lions (-7.5) @ Indianapolis Colts | Total: 50.5
I don't know if you've ever pondered this - maybe you have or haven't - but do the Colts remind you of a Walmart version of the Lions? They are built on a very similar structure. Offense is totally designed off of a horse for a running back (or running game in Lions case) behind a good offensive line. Complemented of course by plus plus (double plus) pass catchers who double as YAC daddies. The QB situation is a tad different, with Jared Goff and Anthony Richardson and their respective style of play. But when Joe Flacco started, it looked very similar. And defensively there's some juice but neither resembles the 2000's Ravens. Anyway, I thought that I may get some takers with this inner thought.
Here it is. The Detroit Lions are the best team in football. My preseason Super Bowl winner has flat out dominated in all but one game this year (Week 2 vs. Tampa). They've covered 8 of 10 spreads. The offense currently averages 33.6 PPG (best in NFL) along with 394.7 YPG (third best) and 152.2 rush YPG (third best). In other words, it's a complete DADDY WAGON.
David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs, dubbed Sonic and Knuckles, are without question the best backfield duo in the league. Both are on pace to crush 1,000 rush yards and 10 scores. It's the foundation of this Lions team. The good news is they face a Colts defense that's allowed the fifth most rushing yards (143.1 YPG). What will work really well is when the Lions start ripping shots down field with Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams against this bottom 10 pass defense (231.5 YPG).
Indy's defense does have some play makers like DT's DeForest Buckner and Grover Stewart that can cause disruption up front. However, in the event that doesn't happen, it's a matchup that should probably see Detroit flirt with another 30 bean on the scoreboard. The only chance for the Colts to win -or even stay in - this game is if their offense creates some big plays.
Anthony Richardson remains so much fun to watch. I really want him to be good. There's so much potential there. But as anybody who has watched him can tell you, he's the definition of a high variance player. Against the Jets defense last week, he racked up three total scores and 300+ total yards, while completing 66.7% of his passes in a gutsy 28-27 win. The week before he only managed to complete 31.3 % of his passes with one TD and one pick. Richardson's tale of two QBs.
You can move the rock on Detroit's secondary who ranks bottom seven against the pass (232.7 YPG),. but their rush defense is top five in the league. A-Rich will have to hit those easy throws and move the chains to keep Indy's offense in play. The hardest part is you never know what you're going to get with him.
Ultimately, I do see Indy hanging tough for a while. An upset wouldn't shock me, nor a covered spread at a sizeable 7.5 point bridge. At the end of the day, the Lions are the better team and much more fundamentally sound. This Detroit team is a steam train, and I will not look to get in front of that.
Pick: Lions -7.5, +100 at bet365
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Circa Millions Week 12 Bets
Pick 1: Lions -7.5
See Above
Pick 2: Bucs -6
Tampa fresh off the bye will see a Giants team back in the Tommy DeVito game. Daniel Jones got released this week, so he will not re-emerge. DeVito is a guy I root for. He's one of us. A North Jersey Italian that grew up in the next town over from me. But with an ailing Malik Nabers against a rested Bucs defense, it would surprise me to see the Giants put up more than 17 points on Sunday. With Mike Evans back, it should be enough scoring Tampa in this one.
Pick 3: Packers -2
Without Brock Purdy and Nick Bosa, this line completely flipped. Luckily in a contest line, we get the two-point spread instead of the now Royal Mint 5.5 spot. Brandon Allen takes over as QB1 for the 49ers. While I don't think SF's offense will disappear, covering a deuce in Lambeau will be challenging. The 49ers defense has been susceptible this year, so Jordan Love and the offense should score enough here.
Pick 4: Rams +3
The Rams are at a crossroads. A few more wins and they're not only in position for a playoff spot, but live for the NFC West as well. The Eagles coming across the country without DeVonta Smith is already a tough proposition. The Philly defense has played great this year overall, but I want to see what happens when they face Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua, Kyren Williams and Matthew Stafford. It'll stay close and I think LAR keeps it inside a field goal.
Pick 5: Ravens -3
Fresh off a bad loss at Pittsburgh, you know the Ravens come in extra motivated in the rematch of the Harbaugh bowl. The Steelers dropped a brutal TNF game to Cleveland, opening the AFC North back up for Balto. The Chargers defense was exposed by Cincy in the second half of last week's MNF game. The Ravens losing twice in a row is not something I see happening.
Best of luck this weekend!
