This article is part of our DFS Football 101 series.
Last week, I explored applying standard deviation when looking at player performance. What got my wheels spinning is the amount of stock we put into fantasy points allowed by position. The problem with this approach is there are numerous teams grouped within a few points of each other. So how do you decide which players to target? Well, in the DFS world you want to focus your cash game plays on the most consistent outcomes. Below, I go through each position and then provide a sample lineup you can use in cash games on DraftKings this week based on standard deviation.
Quarterback (Points Allowed, Standard Deviation)
Eagles - 23.04, 7.52
Bears - 22.81, 10.82
Jets – 21.80, 5.20
Redskins – 21.61, 9.24
Panthers – 20.24, 5.11
Giants – 20.20, 8.12
Bucs – 20.17, 7.88
Rams – 20.17, 10.41
Broncos – 20.01, 6.48
Falcons – 20.00, 5.38
How do you separate the top 10 teams in this group when there is only a three-point spread between them? Standard deviation. By using this data, you can determine which teams consistently allow the most points each week. Based on this data, I would look at Jay Cutler, Ryan Tannehill and Brian Hoyer. I talked about Tannehill and Hoyer on the Rotowire Sirius XM show Thursday afternoon. Both present great value at the quarterback position this week. Keep an eye on the Bills/Jets game as Kyle Orton has been consistent this year and he has a good price. If the game is played in a dome, I would consider him.
Running Back
Raiders – 30.18, 9.62
Falcons – 30.12, 13.79
Giants – 29.84, 13.85
Jaguars – 29.40, 11.75
Bengals – 29.03, 9.97
Colts – 28.67, 16.68
Titans – 28.59, 10.58
Panthers – 28.53, 8.93
Vikings – 28.40, 9.16
Patriots – 28.30, 12.82
Taking the teams with the lowest standard deviation in this group, we can target Eddie Lacy, Arian Foster (if healthy) and LeSean McCoy for cash games. Isaiah Crowell, DeMarco Murray, Trent Richardson, and Denard Robinson would be GPP plays based on standard deviation. Referencing last week's article, we had Foster in the GPP category due to high variance, but if his matchup is low variance, you can play him in both cash games and GPPs this week. The same goes for Lacy and Murray.
Wide Receiver
Texans – 44.29, 9.43
Eagles - 43.48, 17.87
Ravens - 42.18, 14.96
Bucs - 41.95. 20.28
Rams - 41.54, 15.79
Panthers - 40.77, 12.69
Saints - 40.22, 12.98
Falcons – 39.30, 9.61
Cardinals - 38.90, 24.95
Jets - 38.43, 17.19
A.J. Green and Josh Gordon look like the top plays this week, as both the Texans and Falcons have an STD of less than 10 at the wide receiver position. You can take this approach in cash games, and even use Green in a GPP, but so many people will be on Gordon that it may be best to fade him in tournaments. Another player that I like this week is Torrey Smith against the Saints.
Tight End
Bears – 18.67, 17.67
Cowboys – 18.09, 11.91
Colts – 16.65, 11.71
Broncos – 16.17, 10.25
Jets – 15.96, 9.07
Patriots – 15.51, 8.03
Bengals – 15.27, 14.52
Seahawks – 14.70, 10.25
Cardinals – 14.68, 8.65
There is some good value at tight end this week, with Larry Donnell having the best matchup and a great price. Charles Clay gets a good matchup against the Broncos. And if you want to roll the dice, Scott Chandler is minimum salary.
Defense/Special Teams
Jaguars – 14.00, 6.20
Rams – 13.20, 8.84
Bucs – 10.70, 8.26
Redskins – 10.70, 8.38
Jets – 9.80, 5.44
Eagles – 9.80, 10.21
Vikings – 9.60, 10.12
Bears – 9.40, 6.33
Cash game recommendations – Colts, Bills, Vikings, 49ers
GPP recommendations – Bears, Chargers
Sample Cash Game Lineup on DraftKings
QB - Brian Hoyer, $5900
RB - Trent Richardson, $4900
RB - DeMarco Murray, $8500
WR - Josh Gordon, $6300
WR - A.J. Green, $7300
WR - Torrey Smith, $5400
TE - Charles Clay, $4000
F - Kenny Stills, $4200
D - Indianapolis Colts, $3200
Total - $49700
