This article is part of our DFS Football 101 series.
"Player X is a cash game play" or "player Y is a GPP/Tournament play" are common phrases you'll hear from daily fantasy football pundits, and often times we subtly make reference as to why. But the more I thought about it this week, I wanted to show the actual numbers behind the Cash Games vs. GPP logic.
Each week, I try to speak to the casual daily fantasy sports player or the guy/gal who has been playing for a while, but needs more of an edge. As I started realizing this week, standard deviation is a really great tool being under utilized across daily fantasy sports by the mainstream.
Here is a definition of standard deviation:
Standard deviation is a statistical measurement that sheds light on historical volatility. For example, a volatile stock will have a high standard deviation while the deviation of a stable blue-chip stock will be lower. A large dispersion tells us how much the return on the fund is deviating from the expected normal returns.
Standard deviation is not that hard to figure out, you just need to know how to apply it. While we are working with a ten game sample size, positional ranks show that quarterbacks and running backs have the lowest standard deviations, while wide receivers and tight ends have higher marks.
Just look at some winning lineups and you will see most of them are built with an average quarterback, at least one value running back, at least two stud wide receivers, one of the stud tight ends, along with getting lucky on your D/ST.
I usually get the question about where I get my data; in this case, I populate the data into Excel and just use the STD formula to get standard deviation.
The below data is compiled from Draftkings scoring through Week 10
Quarterback
Cash Games – Head-to-Head/50-50/Double-Up (Low Standard Deviation):
Player, Average Points Per Game, Standard Deviation
Andrew Luck – 29.37, 4.95
Peyton Manning – 26.89, 5.39
Drew Brees – 21.92, 3.24
Jay Cutler – 20.07, 5.57
Kyle Orton – 19.26, 3.84
Carson Palmer – 18.92, 5.43
Colin Kaepernick – 18.05, 5.71
Ryan Tannehill – 18.01, 5.46
Tony Romo – 17.96, 4.91
Matt Ryan – 18.98, 6.56
Guaranteed Prize Pool - Large Field Tournament (High Standard Deviation)
Ben Roethlisberger – 22.20, 11.91
Russell Wilson – 22.37, 10.68
Tom Brady – 20.92, 10.51
Aaron Rodgers – 24.83, 9.48
Eli Manning – 18.22, 8.65
Joe Flacco – 17.63, 8.61
Philip Rivers – 19.83, 8.25
Cam Newton – 17.48, 8.10
Nick Foles – 18.04, 7.72
Matthew Stafford – 18.54, 7.57
Based on the value for cash games, I think Brees ($8300) is the best play, but you also have Ryan ($6400), who gets the Carolina defense. You can never go wrong with Luck ($10000) or Peyton Manning ($9900), but you will have to pay more to get them in your cash game lineups.
On the GPP side, a few subpar games have placed Rodgers ($9400) and Brady ($9800) in this bucket. Rodgers can slide over to the cash game list as well due to his matchup.
The best example I can give on how to define a cash game versus a tournament play is to look at two players with similar average points per game but drastically different standard deviations. Brees and Wilson are the two that jump out to me. You can trust Brees in all of your cash game lineups because he rarely has a bad game, whereas Wilson is so reliant on the game script. If Marshawn Lynch gets a lot of rushing yards and red-zone opportunities that limits Wilson's output and makes him very risky.
Running Back
Cash Games:
DeMarco Murray – 25.14, 4.85
Le'Veon Bell – 20.03, 6.28
Mark Ingram – 19.63, 7.46
Andre Ellington – 17.71, 6.98
Ahmad Bradshaw – 16.82, 5.24
Justin Forsett – 16.13, 5.23
Rashad Jennings – 15.10, 7.32
Lamar Miller – 13.87, 5.74
Fred Jackson – 13.24, 6.20
LeSean McCoy – 12.48, 6.73
GPP
Marshawn Lynch – 21.61, 11.97
Branden Oliver – 16.48, 11.38
Matt Asiata – 12.51, 10.70
Matt Forte – 24.48, 10.43
Eddie Lacy – 14.94, 9.65
Jamaal Charles – 16.85, 9.48
Ronnie Hillman – 14.50, 9.44
Arian Foster – 25.89, 9.22
Darren Sproles – 13.54, 8.66
Giovani Bernard – 16.79, 8.59
I really like the trio of Ingram, Bradshaw and Jennings this week in cash games. The first two have great matchups and price, whereas Jennings is coming off an injury. And if you look at the 49ers performance against running backs on the road, Jennings matchup doesn't appear too daunting.
Forte is too expensive for me to consider, but Foster is a great play at a much cheaper price. Of course, you have the health concerns to keep an eye on if considering Foster. This could be the week where you end up playing some of your cash game running backs in tournaments as well. A combo like Ingram and Shane Vereen (just missed the GPP list) would be a nice strategy.
Wide Receiver
Cash Games
Antonio Brown – 25.31, 8.85
Golden Tate – 21.18, 8.92
Randall Cobb – 19.96, 7.95
Odell Beckham – 17.66, 7.56
Mohamed Sanu – 16.50, 7.82
DeAndre Hopkins – 15.82, 6.49
Kelvin Benjamin – 15.29, 7.57
Alshon Jeffrey – 14.88, 6.36
Julian Edelman – 14.77, 8.21
Anquan Boldin – 14.72, 5.81
Roddy White – 14.39, 7.22
Brandin Cooks – 14.31, 7.63
Mike Wallace – 14.28, 3.96
Reggie Wayne – 13.43, 7.24
James Jones – 12.59, 6.53
Eric Decker – 12.44, 5.48
Andrew Hawkins – 12.40, 7.18
Andre Johnson – 12.03, 4.96
GPP
Demaryius Thomas – 24.47, 12.10
Jordy Nelson – 22.77, 11.65
Emmanuel Sanders – 22.33, 9.87
Jeremy Maclin – 20.87, 13.63
T.Y. Hilton – 20.02, 9.23
Julio Jones – 19.49, 9.08
Dez Bryant – 19.23, 9.21
DeSean Jackson – 17.00, 10.03
Mike Evans – 16.69, 9.08
Calvin Johnson – 16.52, 12.92
Sammy Watkins – 15.86, 11.42
Steve Smith – 15.68, 10.07
Brandon Marshall – 14.73, 9.10
A.J. Green – 14.05, 9.39
Brandon LaFell – 13.71, 11.62
Jordan Matthews – 13.01, 10.20
Allen Hurns – 11.35, 10.81
This is a case of Steady Eddie vs. Fast Eddie. All of the cash game wide receivers are volume players who produce consistently week in, week out. Now, this does not mean you want all three receivers (or four if you include your flex spot) to be cash game options, but you need at least two of them. Selecting Cobb, Green and Benjamin with Julio Jones at the flex would be an example of this approach.
Tight End
Cash Games
Martellus Bennett – 15.58, 7.08
Greg Olsen – 15.28, 7.68
Delanie Walker – 12.91, 8.34
Dwayne Allen – 11.71, 4.96
Travis Kelce – 11.31, 5.47
GPP
Rob Gronkowski – 19.14, 11.12
Jimmy Graham – 17.71, 10.73
Julius Thomas – 17.26, 10.19
It is pretty simple: You better have one of the big three tight ends in order to win a tournament. It is very hard to find consistent upside with anyone else.
Defense/Special Teams
Cash Games
Texans – 10.67, 6.39
Patriots – 10.33, 6.83
Bills – 9.67, 6.34
Lions – 9.22, 5.49
Browns – 8.89, 4.28
Ravens – 8.50, 4.08
GPP
Eagles – 14.89, 9.92
Dolphins – 12.33, 8.15
Cardinals – 10.00, 7.63
Vikings – 8.56, 7.59
Packers – 8.78, 7.59
For cash games, I like the Lions, Browns, and Broncos (just missed, but have a great price/matchup). The Lions get a backup quarterback (Drew Stanton) in a game that should be very low scoring. I like the Browns at home facing Ryan Mallett in his debut with the Texans.
Arizona and Minnesota are the best bets in this GPP group. Arizona has a home game against a high level defense, which should lead to very low scoring. The Vikings face the Bears on the road, but Chicago has been such a mess lately, that the upside is huge.
Sample Cash Game Lineup Using Standard Deviation
QB - Drew Brees, $8300
RB - Rashad Jennings, $4700
RB - Ahmad Bradshaw, $5700
WR - Randall Cobb, $7500
WR - A.J. Green, $6000
WR - Julio Jones, $7000
TE - Mychal Rivera, $3100
Flex - Kelvin Benjamin, $4900
D/ST - Arizona Cardinals, $2800
Total - $50,000
Sample GPP Lineup Using Standard Deviation
QB - Tom Brady, $9800
RB - C.J. Anderson, $4800
RB - Jeremy Hill, $4500
WR - Pierre Garcon, $4000
WR - Keenan Allen, $4500
WR - A.J. Green, $6000
TE - Rob Gronkowski, $7900
Flex - Shane Vereen, $5500
D/ST - Denver Broncos, $3000
Total - $50,000
I'm stacking Patriots and two low-priced, high-ceiling running backs. I am also taking shots on two wide receivers in really good matchups and very low prices. The wild card is the Broncos D/ST, as the Rams are starting Shaun Hill, not Austin Davis.
