DFS Football 101: Important Tips for New Players, Round 11

Over the last six weeks, I have written about the quarterback position, running backs, and wide receivers in how to approach them in GPPs and Cash games. For the next two weeks, I will repeat this process looking at the tight end position.

For this series of articles, the site I am focusing on is DraftKings. DraftKings is a full-point PPR site, with a FLEX, no kickers, and three-point bonuses for 300 passing yards and 100 rushing/receiving yards. The salary cap is $50,000 and the average cash game score in most weeks is around 150 points. The reason that is important is we need to determine what "multiplier" or "value" is required to hit. A "multiplier" is calculated by taking the players' score, dividing by the salary, and multiplying by 1000. For example, Sammie Coates was $3600 in Week 5 and scored 34.9 points. The multiplier calculation would be (34.9/$3600)*1000=9.7x value.

So if we know that 150 points is the target and $50,000 is the salary cap, the target for any projection on a player needs to be at least 3x. The challenge in this is finding the most consistent players from week to week that will hit 3x value. It is a balance between what positions to pay up for versus where you decide to take value. Often times the matchups and pricing will dictate your weekly strategy.

Let's look at the tight end position and build a system to cash game targets.

TE Stats (445 total through Week 11)
Average Score: 8.8
Average Salary: $3285
Average Value: 2.7

TE (Hit at least 3x – 166 through Week 11)
Average Score: 14.7
Average Salary: $3189
Average Value: 4.6
Average Pct Hit Value: 37%

If you look at this chart below, the sweet spot to find value is between $4000-$4900. But you can also find value pretty much anywhere between $2600-$3900. It does not make sense to pay up at the tight end position on DraftKings because the salary floor starts at $2500 which is much lower than other positions.

Average per week: 15

As you can see the amount of wide receivers that hit 3x each week is around 15.

Additional Statistics:

• 13 out of the top 15 tight ends with an average value of at least 3.0x were drafted outside the top 12
• Jack Doyle (Position APD 60), CJ Fiedorowicz (58), Austin Hooper (42), Vernon Davis (38), Hunter Henry (37), Cameron Brate (34), Vance McDonald (29), Kyle Rudolph (21), Eric Ebron (19), Zach Miller (18), Martellus Bennett (13)
• The following tight ends have hit at least 3.0x value at least five times:
• Hunter Henry, Jack Doyle, Kyle Rudolph – 6
• Antonio Gates, C.J. Fiedorowicz, Cameron Brate, Delanie Walker, Eric Ebron, Gary Barnidge, Lance Kendricks, Vance McDonald, Vernon Davis, Zach Miller – 5
• The following tight ends have hit less than 2.0x value at least five times:
• Clive Walford – 6
• Coby Fleener, Jordan Reed, Martellus Bennett, Travis Kelce – 5
• The following teams have allowed opposing tight ends to hit at least 3.0x value seven times:
• Falcons, Bengals, Lions – 9
• Panthers, Titans – 7
• The following team have allowed opposing tight ends to hit at least 3.0x value less than three times:
• Chiefs – 1
• Cardinals, Ravens, Eagles – 2
• Bills, Texans, Rams – 3

For cash games, you want the tight ends with the combined highest-average points per game and lowest standard deviation.