DraftKings NFL: Divisional Round Breakdown

This article is part of our DraftKings NFL series.

Note: I've combined the Saturday and Sunday games into one article because the biggest contests on DraftKings include all four games. There will also be separate two-game slates for each day with similar pricing and this article can also be referenced for them. 

The Games

Quarterback

• Brock Purdy vs. GB ($6,500)

DraftKings continues to underprice Purdy for no apparent reason. Maybe the fact that he had one of the most efficient seasons in history has something to do with it. Regardless, the 49ers have a 30-point implied total and that combined with the bargain salary has Purdy projecting as the top point-per-dollar value at the position. I expect that will make him the most popular quarterback. Seemingly always underpriced, the same had been the case for a few of the more recent slates and he came through with 25-plus fantasy points each time. People remember that and will trust him again. It makes sense when you consider that he's surrounded by the best skill players and coached by one of the best offensive minds. 

If you're looking for a pivot in GPPs, Baker Mayfield ($6,000) has shown plenty of upside recently. Fresh off torching the Eagles for 30-plus fantasy points, we saw him do the same a few weeks ago in Green Bay. Now he gets a matchup indoors against a Lions defense that's really struggled against the pass. The opposite side of that matchup is equally favorable for Jared Goff ($6,300) with the Bucs defense being a notorious pass-funnel. Stacking either makes sense, though I prefer the Mayfield side as it's cheaper and would offer more leverage. 

• Lamar Jackson vs. HOU ($7,900)

Jackson followed up a dominant performance in a statement win over the 49ers with a dazzling five-touchdown display against the Dolphins to finish the regular season on a high. Now fresh off a bye, the MVP favorite gets a favorable spot at home against the Texans. He's a similar option to Josh Allen ($8,000), in that both offer elite rushing upside, which gives them massive ceiling potential. Allen has a little bit tougher matchup against an improved Chiefs defense. For what it's worth, Buffalo beat Kansas City 20-17 in Week 14 in a game where points where relatively hard to come by. Meanwhile, the Ravens are sizeable favorites and have a 26.5-point implied total. All part of the reason I slightly prefer Jackson if spending up. 

Running Back

• Christian McCaffrey vs. GB ($8,800)

McCaffrey was priced $9,200-$9,500 most of the season and the majority of industry experts thought he should be $10K. Now his salary has inexplicably fallen below $9K, further solidifying him as the best value on the slate. He'll be exceedingly popular and rightfully so, a lock for cash-games and arguably for tournaments. On the flip side, there are six or seven good running backs who are much cheaper and if two score at least 20 fantasy points, that could nullify McCaffrey if he's held to less than 30. It's something to consider as there's quite a bit of opportunity cost at WR.

• Isiah Pacheco at BUF ($6,400)

Kansas City really seems to have embraced Pacheco as their workhorse. He has at least 25 touches in back-to-back games and is coming off a season-high 24 carries last week as the Chiefs ground out a win in the cold. They'd like to do the same this week if things go their way. Pacheco has been a touchdown-scoring machine, scoring in five consecutive games and he remains plenty involved in the passing-game with 21 catches over his last five. Ownership in the $6K range will be spread out but Pacheco is expected to be most popular.

This is the range where I'll be looking for leverage in tournaments. Aaron Jones ($6,700) will go overlooked as the Packers are 10-point underdogs, but they were big underdogs last week and he dismantled the Cowboys with three TDs and 35 fantasy points. Including him in Purdy stacks makes the most sense. Jahmyr Gibbs ($6,600) will be even less popular and if you're stacking the TB-DET game, he can be paired with either QB as much of his upside comes from catching passes. My preferred option in this range is James Cook ($6,300). He was Buffalo's best player in the Week 14 matchup against the Chiefs when he caught five passes for 83 yards and a TD while rushing for 5.8 yards per carry. If you're looking for more salary relief, Devin Singletary ($5,700) projects well. The matchup against the Ravens is tough, but his role remains elite. He scored a goal-line TD and caught three passes in last week's upset of the Browns. 

Wide Receiver

• Amon-Ra St. Brown vs. TB ($8,200)

St. Brown has topped 100 receiving yards in four of the last five games and this is an ideal matchup for him to do it again as the Bucs normally stuff the run and concede the pass. Games at Ford Field consistently prove fruitful for fantasy points, and this one should be no different. It's no wonder why he projects as the best value at the position, but I'd stop short of calling him a lock because it's difficult to afford him with McCaffrey and there are five or six cheaper options who could match his score. Deebo Samuel ($7,700) is one and might be the least popular of the WRs priced higher than $6K. That would make him one of the better leverage options on the slate. So is Mike Evans ($7,200), who's coming off a couple big drops last week against the Eagles. He'll be eager to put those behind him, and it's a great spot against the Lions, who've given up big games to WRs all season. I can't say I'll get there, but Stefon Diggs ($7,000) makes sense from a game theory perspective, especially when paired with Allen. His salary continues to fall and yet few will want to roster him based on underwhelming recent numbers.  

• Rashee Rice at BUF ($6,800)

Rice is coming off a career-high 130 receiving yards as he continues to excel as the Chiefs' alpha WR. He's been popular in cash games the last month or so and I don't see why that would change based on how good he's been. He's also slightly cheaper than the others. I like the idea of pivoting to Brandon Aiyuk ($6,900) in GPPs. Not only will Rice be more popular but Nico Collins ($7,100) probably will be too after back-to-back standout performances. All three are good options depending on the lineup. So is Zay Flowers ($6,000), who's sure to get a bit squeezed with all of the $7K options taking up ownership. Saving $1,000 while gaining leverage at the same time is awfully appealing. 

The third WR spot will be the popular place for salary relief and the two Lions project best. Josh Reynolds ($3,700) might be a little safer as he's on the field a bit more and draws a few more targets but Jameson Williams ($3,600) has the higher ceiling. Reynolds played 85 percent of snaps and drew seven targets last week while Williams returned from a one-game absence to play 70 percent of the snaps and catch both of his targets. Khalil Shakir ($3,800) would be a similar option but only if Gabe Davis ($5,000) is out again. Shakir has played 75 percent of the snaps the last three games and excelled without Davis on the field.

Tight End

• Travis Kelce at BUF ($6,000)

By all accounts it was a down year for Kelce, who at 34 isn't quite the player he once was. He's gone seven games without catching a touchdown and 10 without topping 100 yards receiving. However, he doesn't cost $8K anymore or even $7K as DraftKings has slashed his salary to its lowest point ever. He caught seven of 10 targets for 71 yards against the Dolphins last week and six of 10 targets for 83 yards when Kansas City faced Buffalo in Week 14. Mahomes still looks for him in important spots, and I expect the same Sunday. To summarize, now that his salary has fallen considerably, Kelce projects as decent value. So does George Kittle ($5,200), who isn't likely to draw as many targets as Kelce, but for $800 cheaper may be more likely to score considering the 49ers' 30-point implied total. The two are expected to be similarly popular, meaning that Sam LaPorta ($5,900) and Dalton Kincaid ($4,800) will go overlooked. Both are coming off touchdowns last week and either would provide leverage in GPPs. If you're looking for salary relief at the position, Cade Otton ($3,500) stands out. I'd expect him to be relatively popular as well after he set career highs for catches and yards with eight for 89 against the Eagles last week. 

Defense/Special Teams

• Buffalo Bills vs. KC ($2,800)
• Baltimore Ravens vs. HOU ($3,500)

Although none of the defenses particularly stand out, Buffalo ($2,800) and Baltimore ($3,500) will be the most popular. The Bills because they're cheap and favored at home. The Ravens because they've been one of the best defenses in the league all season and the Texans have a considerably lower implied total than the other three underdogs. The 49ers ($3,400), based on talent alone, make sense as a leverage option in GPPs.