DraftKings NFL: Week 15 DFS Breakdown

This article is part of our DraftKings NFL series.

Sunday's Week 15 slate includes 12 games, with Bills-Lions as the marquee matchup. Despite it's massive 54.5-point total, the game actually won't be overly popular from a DFS standpoint as both teams are a notoriously tough stack. 

As of Friday, there isn't nearly as much chalk or cheaper value that we've had in recent weeks. Chuba Hubbard stands to be the most rostered player on the slate with the Panthers favored for the first time in two years for their home matchup against the hopeless Cowboys. As usual, I've highlighted the top options for cash games as well some of my favorite ideas for tournaments. Good luck.

Note: All prices listed come from DraftKings, but most of the logic can be applied to other sites across the DFS industry. Discussion is limited to players from the "main slate" of games kicking off at 1 p.m., 4:05 p.m. and 4:25 p.m. EST on Sunday. The strategy below is meant for large-field tournaments, where payouts typically are limited to ~20 percent of lineups, with the majority concentrated at the very top.

The Games

Point-Per-Dollar Value

These are the players with the best projections relative to their salaries — good plays both for cash games and large-field tournaments. While we don't want our GPP lineups to look like cash-game lineups top to bottom, there's nothing wrong with using a few chalky plays.

• RB Chuba Hubbard vs. DAL ($6,500)

The Panthers are favored to win for the first time in nearly two years. It's a great spot for Hubbard as the Cowboys defense has allowed the third-most fantasy points to RBs and are now without star LB DeMarvion Overshown. Also, with Jonathon Brooks and Miles Sanders sidelined, Hubbard is in line for an even bigger workload than usual. It all adds up to why he projects as the best value at the position. I expect he'll be the most popular pick.

• TE Trey McBride vs. NE ($6,000)

Coming off back-to-back 12-catch games, McBride caught seven of 14 targets for 70 yards against Seattle last week. Normally I don't highlight a tight end, but he's seen so much volume recently that he projects better than all the WRs priced around him. He's also helped by Arizona's 26-point implied total and soft matchup at home against New England. Incredibly, McBride still doesn't have a receiving touchdown this season and there won't be a better spot to break his duck than Sunday. 

Other Cash-Game Options

QB Kyler Murray vs. NE ($6,000)

QB Justin Herbert vs. TB ($5,900)

QB Will Levis vs. CIN ($5,000)

RB Joe Mixon vs. MIA ($7,800)

RB Chase Brown at TEN ($7,200)

RB James Conner vs. NE ($6,600)

RB Chuba Hubbard vs. DAL ($6,500)

RB Rico Dowdle at CAR ($6,100)

RB Rachaad White at LAC ($5,800)

WR Ja'Marr Chase at TEN ($8,400)

WR Amon-Ra St. Brown vs. BUF ($7,600)

WR Tee Higgins at TEN ($6,800)

WR Ladd McConkey vs. TB ($6,300)

WR Jerry Jeudy vs. KC ($6,200)

WR Zay Flowers at NYG ($6,000)

WR Calvin Ridley vs. TEN ($5,900)

WR Brian Thomas vs. NYJ ($5,800)

WR Adam Thielen vs. DAL ($5,400)

WR Elijah Moore vs. KC ($5,000)

TE Trey McBride vs. NE ($6,000)

TE Stone Smartt vs. TB ($2,600)

D/ST Baltimore Ravens at NYG ($3,900)

D/ST Arizona Cardinals vs. NE ($3,000)

D/ST Cleveland Browns vs. KC ($2,200)

Passing-Game Stacks

Stacks are the centerpiece of most tournament lineups, seeking to take advantage of positive correlations between players. It rarely makes sense to use a quarterback without one or two of his pass catchers, even if the player in question scores a decent portion of his fantasy points with his legs. Ideally, a stack also includes a pass catcher from the other side of the game, hoping to take advantage of a back-and-forth shootout. (Implied team totals are listed in parentheses.)

Buffalo Bills (26.25) at Detroit Lions (28.75)

BILLS

Buffalo's matchup in Detroit is the highest-totaled game of the season and MVP frontrunner Josh Allen ($8,500) is fresh off an incredible 55-fantasy point performance against the Rams last week. It's a no-brainer in terms of scoring appeal, but the Bills are always tough to stack, especially now that all of their pass-catchers are back healthy. The winner of the Millionaire Maker last week didn't pair Allen with anyone and that's always fine given that he rushes for so many touchdowns. If I had to choose one WR, it would be Amari Cooper ($5,300) after he drew 14 targets last week and because he's $800 cheaper than Khalil Shakir ($6,100). With any semblance of volume, It's only a matter of time before Cooper and Allen hook up on a long touchdown. Dalton Kincaid ($4,900) is worth considering for larger-field GPPs with his salary at a season low. 

LIONS

The Lions are also notoriously tough to stack given that they have five relevant skill-position players to consider and you never know from where the production might come. I'm going with the narrative that Buffalo's defense has been better against the run than the pass. That said, it's allowed the most receptions in the league to RBs, which is why I favor Jahmyr Gibbs ($7,500) to David Montgomery ($7,000) this week. Jared Goff ($6,500) has topped 23 fantasy points in four of his last 10 and can be considered in the largest-field GPPs, but he isn't the type of QB I normally roster for that price. Amon-Ra St. Brown's ($7,600) salary has dropped to its lowest point of the season while that of Jameson Williams ($5,600) is down $500 from two weeks ago. Discounted and not expected to be popular is good time to take a chance. Same goes for Sam LaPorta ($4,400), who's drawn at least six targets in four consecutive games. We just saw Puka Nacua explode against this Bills' pass defense a week ago. 

• Favorite Bills Stack: QB Allen + RB Gibbs or WR St. Brown + WR Cooper
• Favorite Lions Stack: QB Goff + WR St. Brown + TE LaPorta or WR Williams

Other Stacks to Consider

QB Lamar Jackson + WR Zay Flowers and/or TE Mark Andrews

QB Jayden Daniels + WR Terry McLaurin or WR Dyami Brown +/- TE Zach Ertz 

QB Joe Burrow + WR Ja'Marr Chase or WR Tee Higgins + WR Calvin Ridley

QB Baker Mayfield + WR Mike Evans + WR Ladd McConkey or TE Stone Smartt

QB C.J. Stroud + WR Nico Collins + WR Tyreek Hill or WR Jaylen Waddle

QB Tua Tagovailoa + RB Joe Mixon + WR Tyreek Hill or WR Jaylen Waddle +/- TE Jonnu Smith

QB Kyler Murray + TE Trey McBride

QB Justin Herbert + RB Rachaad White + WR Ladd McConkey +/- TE Stone Smartt

QB Bryce Young + RB Rico Dowdle or WR CeeDee Lamb + WR Adam Thielen

QB Cooper Rush + RB Chuba Hubbard + WR CeeDee Lamb +/- TE Jake Ferguson

QB Will Levis + RB Chase Brown + WR Calvin Ridley

High-Priced Heroes

• WR Ja'Marr Chase at TEN ($8,400)

Chase has put up video game numbers the last month and it's probably too easy to highlight him here, so I'll mention a WR that I like who will go overlooked. Tyreek Hill ($7,400) just had his best game of the season, catching 10 of 14 targets for 115 yards and a score against the Jets last week. Miami's opponent Sunday, Houston, has permitted the league's most touchdown passes (26) and 40-plus yard completions (10). It's an underrated matchup inside a dome for a still-discounted Hill and he won't be higher than 5 percent owned in most contests. 

• RB Derrick Henry at NYG ($8,300)

It's hard to imagine a better spot for Henry. The Giants are set to start Tommy DeVito and will be without All-Pro defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence. The Ravens are bigger than two-touchdown favorites on the road, so the likely script heavily favors the running game. Blowout risk in this one is high, which is why Henry won't be overly popular. But he only needs three quarters to run for 100-plus yards and multiple TDs, so I think it's worth the risk. 

Fading the Field

Every week we see at least one or two players who are popular without the backing of a top point-per-dollar projection. In some cases it even makes sense to fade a player with a strong projection, particularly when there are good alternatives at the same position and price range.

• WR Marvin Harrison vs. NE ($5,500)

As someone who's taken more unsuccessful shots on Harrison than most, this is scary fade given that his salary has plummeted $2,000 from where it was Week 5. Especially as the Cardinals have a high implied total and a soft home matchup against the Patriots. It isn't a soft matchup for Harrison, however, who will see plenty of star CB Christian Gonzalez. Harrison is going to be relatively popular based on price and matchup. That and because I prefer Adam Thielen ($5,400) for the same salary are my main reasons for fading but I'd also rather pair Kyler Murray with Trey McBride if I'm stacking Arizona. 

The Smash Spot

(Players in favorable spots to significantly outperform their salary.)

• TE Stone Smartt vs TB ($2,600)

After Will Dissly (shoulder) was ruled out at halftime, Smartt played the second half of last week's game against the Chiefs and caught three passes for 54 yards. He should see a sizeable bump in snap share on Sunday with both Dissly and Hayden Hurst out. Smartt is built more like a WR than a TE and has decent pass-catching chops. The Chargers don't have much of a running game without Dobbins and are up against Tampa Bay's pass-funnel defense. Ladd McConkey ($6,300) is also banged up (really like him too, almost highlighted him instead). For just $100 above the minimum salary and on a slate that lacks for good cheap value, double-digit fantasy points from Smartt would be a smash. 

The Bargain Bin

QB Justin Herbert vs. TB ($5,900)

QB Anthony Richardson at DEN ($5,800)

QB Drake Maye at ARI ($5,600)

QB Jameis Winston vs. KC ($5,500)

QB Bryce Young vs. DAL ($5,300)

QB Will Levis vs. CIN ($5,000)

WR Sterling Shepard at LAC ($4,000)

WR Jalen McMillan at LAC ($3,700)

WR Kendrick Bourne at ARI ($3,600)

WR Kayshon Boutte at ARI ($3,500)

WR Dyami Brown at NO ($3,100)

TE Juwan Johnson vs. WAS ($3,400)

TE Dalton Schultz vs. MIA ($3,300)

TE Stone Smartt vs. TB ($2,600)

TE Brenton Strange vs. NYJ ($2,500)

Injuries to Monitor

• RB Bucky Irving at LAC

Irving is questionable as he manages multiple injuries. This is important to monitor because if he's out, Rachaad White ($5,800) will project as one of the best values on the board and become viable in all formats. 

Weather

• Scattered showers and sustained winds are expected in Cleveland. It's nothing crazy but something to keep an eye if you're targeting the Chiefs or Browns passing games.