DraftKings NFL: Week 18 DFS Breakdown

This article is part of our DraftKings NFL series.

Sunday's Week 18 slate includes 13 games, but the majority of teams have little or nothing for which to play. Various key players are out and other important news won't come until late Saturday or Sunday. I plan on waiting until then to finalize important decisions. For the most part, though, I'll be targeting teams and players with motivation to win, at least when spending significant salary. The teams that have little or nothing to play for are good sources for cheap value as backups will play prominent roles. As usual, I've highlighted the top point-per-dollar value for cash games and some ideas for tournaments. Good luck. 

Note: All prices listed come from DraftKings, but most of the logic can be applied to other sites across the DFS industry. Discussion is limited to players from the "main slate" of games kicking off at 1 p.m., 4:05 p.m. and 4:25 p.m. EST on Sunday. The strategy below is meant for large-field tournaments, where payouts typically are limited to ~20 percent of lineups, with the majority concentrated at the very top.

The Games 

Point-Per-Dollar Value

These are the players with the best projections relative to their salaries — good plays both for cash games and large-field tournaments. While we don't want our GPP lineups to look like cash-game lineups top to bottom, there's nothing wrong with using a few chalky plays.

• RB Bucky Irving vs. NO ($7,700)

Tampa Bay is one of few teams on this slate with anything to play for and also has the highest implied team total for a prime matchup at home against New Orleans. Irving was popular last week and rushed 20 times for 113 yards while catching four passes for another 77 yards. He's rushed for 100-plus yards three of the four times he's seen at least 15 carries and he should be in line for at least that against the Saints. He'll be one of the two or three chalkiest RBs. 

• WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba at LAR ($6,100)

Prior to last week's dud against the Bears (the game finished 6-3), Smith-Njigba had drawn 12 targets in back-to-back games, catching 18. He's really emerged as Geno Smith's go-to receiver and Seattle's top weapon on offense whenever Kenneth Walker is out, which will be the case Sunday. The Seahawks have a favorable matchup against a Rams team who will rest most of their key starters. Smith-Njigba projects among the top value in the mid-range and will be among the three most popular WRs. DK Metcalf ($5,600) stands out as good leverage in tournaments as he'll be considerably less popular for less salary despite carrying similar ceiling potential.  

Other Cash-Game Options

QB Baker Mayfield vs. NO ($7,000)

QB Bo Nix vs. KC ($6,400)

QB Kyler Murray vs. SF ($6,000)

QB Joe Flacco vs. JAX ($5,400)

QB Joshua Dobbs at ARI ($4,000)

RB Bijan Robinson vs. CAR ($8,500)

RB Bucky Irving vs. NO ($7,700)

RB Tony Pollard vs. HOU ($6,200)

RB Rico Dowdle vs. WAS ($5,800)

RB Michael Carter vs. SF ($4,700)

WR Mike Evans vs. NO ($8,000)

WR Brian Thomas at IND ($7,300)

WR Drake London vs. CAR ($6,500)

WR Courtland Sutton vs. KC ($6,400)

WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba at LAR ($6,100)

WR Jakobi Meyers vs. LAC ($5,700)

WR Michael Pittman vs. JAX ($5,200)

TE Brock Bowers vs. LAC ($6,600)

TE Trey McBride vs. SF ($6,500)

TE Zach Ertz at DAL ($4,000)

TE Jake Ferguson vs. WAS ($3,900)

TE Chig Okonkwo vs. HOU ($3,800)

TE Peyton Hendershot at DEN ($2,500)

D/ST Denver Broncos vs. KC ($3,000)

D/ST Seattle Seahawks at LAR ($2,900)

D/ST Houston Texans at TEN ($2,800)

D/ST Arizona Cardinals vs. SF ($2,700)

D/ST New York Jets vs. MIA ($2,600)

D/ST New York Giants at PHI ($2,400)

Passing-Game Stacks

Stacks are the centerpiece of most tournament lineups, seeking to take advantage of positive correlations between players. It rarely makes sense to use a quarterback without one or two of his pass catchers, even if the player in question scores a decent portion of his fantasy points with his legs. Ideally, a stack also includes a pass catcher from the other side of the game, hoping to take advantage of a back-and-forth shootout. (Implied team totals are listed in parentheses.)

Carolina Panthers (20.25) at Atlanta Falcons (27.75)

Falcons

With low totals across the board and most teams with little to play for, you can argue that none of the 13 games look good for stacks. I won't be worrying as much about pairing my QB/WR combos with a player from the opposing team. I thought it'd be more beneficial to highlight two home favorites who still have everything to play for. Atlanta can still make the playoffs and has an especially soft matchup against Carolina. I explain what a good spot it is for Bijan Robinson ($8,500) below in the "High-Priced Heroes" section. He projects for the most raw points on the board. Michael Penix ($5,400) will make his second start after looking OK in Sunday night's overtime loss to the Commanders. Drake London ($6,500) drew most of the volume, catching seven of 13 targets for 106 yards. Kyle Pitts (4,000) had four catches for 44 yards and a touchdown. If you're looking to run it back with a Panther, Carolina is the only underdog with an implied total higher than 20 points. Adam Thielen ($6,200) went off for 110 yards and two scores last week while Xavier Legette ($4,200) returned from a one-game absence to catch five of nine targets. 

• Favorite Falcons Stack: QB Penix +/- RB Robinson + WR London or TE Pitts

New Orleans Saints (15) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (29)

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay needs a win to make the playoffs, so it will play all out for as long as the game stays competitive. The Bucs have an ultra-soft matchup against the injury-depleted Saints. Baker Mayfield ($7,000) is coming off another 30-plus DraftKings points, his fifth such performance in what's been a standout season. I touched on Mike Evans ($8,000), who's close to big incentive-based bonus, in the "High-Priced Heroes" section. He projects for the most raw points and also among the top point-per-dollar value at his position. Bucky Irving ($7,700) will chalky again as only the more expensive Bijan Robinson projects better at RB. Jalen McMillan ($5,100), who caught two touchdowns last week, has really started to emerge in the absence of Chris Godwin. New Orleans will start Spencer Rattler again and they'll likely be missing Alvin Kamara and Kendre Miller. I won't be looking to Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($4,100), though he's an option as the starting RB for minimum. If I take a chance on a Saint, it'd be Juwan Johnson ($3,600) after he caught six of 10 targets for 66 yards last week as the de facto No. 1 WR. 

• Favorite Bucs Stack: QB Mayfield +/- RB Irving + WR Evans +/- TE Johnson

Other Stacks to Consider

QB Jayden Daniels + RB Rico Dowdle + WR Terry McLaurin or TE Zach Ertz

QB Bo Nix + WR Courtland Sutton or WR Marvin Mims + WR Nikko Remigio or TE Peyton Hendershot

QB Kyler Murray + WR Marvin Harrison or TE Trey McBride

QB Geno Smith + WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba or WR DK Metcalf + WR Tutu Atwell

QB Geno Smith + RB Blake Corum + WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba or WR DK Metcalf

QB Michael Penix + WR Drake London or TE Kyle Pitts +/- WR Xavier Legette

QB Joe Flacco or QB Anthony Richardson + WR Brian Thomas + WR Michael Pittman 

QB Joshua Dobbs + WR Marvin Harrison or TE Trey McBride + WR Ricky Pearsall

High-Priced Heroes

• RB Bijan Robinson vs. CAR ($8,500)

There isn't a better matchup in the league than a home date with Carolina. The Panthers have allowed at least 200 rushing yards in five consecutive games. They just gave up 190 scrimmage yards to Bucky Irving last week. Robinson is coming off 20 touches for 98 yards and two touchdowns against the Commanders. The Falcons still have an outside shot at making the playoffs, so there's plenty of motivation for them to ride Robinson and that should be the game-plan in Michael Penix's second start. 

• WR Mike Evans vs. NO ($8,000)

Evans has a $3M escalator for hitting 70 receptions/1,000 yards/10 touchdowns. That means he needs five catches for 85 yards to get there. The Bucs have a great matchup that should provide plenty of opportunities as it looks like Derek Carr and Alvin Kamara will remain out for the Saints. Evans is coming off eight catches for 97 yards and two TDs last week, topping 28 DraftKings points for the third time in his last five. He'll be popular and rightly so. 

Fading the Field

Every week we see at least one or two players who are popular without the backing of a top point-per-dollar projection. In some cases it even makes sense to fade a player with a strong projection, particularly when there are good alternatives at the same position and price range.

• WR Josh Downs vs. JAX ($5,300)

Downs was the most popular WR on last week's slate and busted hard, catching three passes for 22 yards on just four targets despite the Colts playing from behind. In retrospect, maybe we could've seen it coming. Downs only played 60 percent of snaps the last two weeks as the No. 3 WR while Alec Pierce/Adonai Mitchell played opposite Michael Pittman ($5,200) as the No. 2. Assuming Joe Flacco starts, Downs is expected to garner double-digit ownership again and I'd rather roster Pittman instead, who's coming off nine catches for 109 yards and a touchdown. Especially in games where the Colts are favored, Downs may struggle for volume unless his role changes. 

The Smash Spot

(Players in favorable spots to significantly outperform their salary.)

• RB Michael Carter vs. SF ($4,700)

Arizona will be without their top three RBs as James Conner, Trey Benson and Emari Demercado are all on IR. That leaves Carter as the feature back and he's way too cheap for that role. It's also a favorable spot at home against the 49ers, who won't have Brock Purdy and whose defense got run over by Lions on Monday night. Carter looked good last week, rushing 13 times for 70 yards and he's caught all seven of his targets since being activated two weeks ago. He projects among the best point-per-dollar value on the board and will be chalky in all formats. 

The Bargain Bin

QB Geno Smith at LAR ($5,500)

QB Michael Penix vs. CAR ($5,400)

QB Joe Flacco vs. JAX ($5,400)

QB Joshua Dobbs at ARI ($4,000)

RB Michael Carter vs. SF ($4,700)

RB Will Shipley vs. DAL ($4,600)

WR Ricky Pearsall at ARI ($4,100)

WR Tutu Atwell vs. SEA ($3,800)

WR Jordan Whittington vs. SEA ($3,300)

WR Nikko Remigio at DEN ($3,000)

WR Justyn Ross at DEN ($3,000)

WR Johnny Wilson vs. NYG ($3,000)

TE Peyton Hendershot at DEN ($2,500)

TE Quintin Morris at NE ($2,500)

TE Davis Allen vs. SEA ($2,500)

Injuries to Monitor

• QB Anthony Richardson vs. JAX 

Assuming Richardson (back) misses a second straight game, Joe Flacco ($5,400) becomes viable in all formats with the Colts in a nice spot at home against the Jags. Michael Pittman ($5,200) and the WRs would also get a significant bump. 

Weather

• It's going to be cold around the country. There's a chance for cold rain and snow in Tennessee for Texans-Titans. I wouldn't taget either passing game in that matchup. Check the forecast Sunday if you're rostering QBs/WRs from games being played outdoors.