DraftKings NFL: Week 9 Value Plays

DraftKings NFL: Week 9 Value Plays

This article is part of our DraftKings NFL series.

Here are my favorite DraftKings tournament plays for Week 9, picking from the main slate that only includes games on Sunday afternoon. The focus here is on value more so than projected ownership, but it's still a nice bonus if a player doesn't figure to be a popular choice.

Quarterback

Dak Prescott, DAL (vs. KC), $6,700 - Prior to last week's rain-soaked handoff party, Prescott had produced four straight games with at least 22.9 DK points. Now facing a Kansas City defense that's been gouged by quarterbacks and wideouts, the second-year QB has a good chance to make it five out of six with at least 22 points. The Chiefs are tied with the Colts for the most pass plays of 40 or more yards allowed (nine), and only two teams have surrendered more gains of 20-plus (33) through the air. Oddsmakers agree with the prognosis, as the Cowboys are favored by one point in a contest with a 52 over/under, tied with Tampa Bay-New Orleans (a possible blowout) for the highest of the week. I'll admit I was more excited about Prescott when it seemed Ezekiel Elliott wouldn't be available, but this is still my favorite QB play of the week. A Prescott-Elliott stack should provide exposure to all of the Dallas touchdowns, with the potential for a double dose if Zeke gets his third receiving score of the season.

Other options: Russell Wilson, SEA (vs. KC), $7,300; Drew Brees, NO (vs. TB), $7,000; Alex Smith, KC (at DAL), $6,500; Jameis Winston, TB (at NO), $5,800

Running Back

Todd Gurley, LAR (at NYG), $8,100 - The non-QB leader in DK points per game, Gurley has topped 27 in four of his seven games this season, with his only sub-20 outings coming against Jacksonville and Seattle. The Giants haven't given up a ton of points to running backs this season, but consider that they've already faced three of the eight worst teams in rushing yards per game, in addition to Seahawks squad that narrowly makes it out of the bottom 10 (22nd) thanks to Russell Wilson. Then consider that the Giants will be missing four defensive starters, including defensive end Olivier Vernon (ankle) and linebackers B.J. Goodson (ankle) and Jonathan Casillas (neck). There's only so much Damon Harrison and Jason Pierre-Paul can do when they're surrounded by replacement-level talent in the front seven.

Eddie Lacy, SEA (vs. WAS), $3,200 - This pick isn't for the feint of heart, as Lacy has yet to record more than 12 touches or 5.3 DK points while playing in an offense that's entirely dependent on Russell Wilson. However, he also hasn't had the opportunity to serve as a true lead back — something that Pete Carroll and offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell both said they plan to try this week. Even if he struggles early on, Lacy should have opportunities in the second half as the Seahawks try to bury an injury-ridden Washington team that's tied with the Broncos as the biggest underdog (+7.5) of the week. If you're looking for something a bit less risky, Cardinals offensive coordinator Harold Goodwin said he plans on feeding Adrian Peterson ($5,600) to help cope with the less of Carson Palmer (arm).

Other options: Ezekiel Elliott, DAL (vs. KC), $9,000; Mark Ingram, NO (vs. TB), $7,600; Lamar Miller, HOU (vs. IND), $6,200; Doug Martin, TB (at NO), $5,800; Adrian Peterson, ARI (at SF), $5,600; Carlos Hyde, SF (vs. ARI), $5,200; Tevin Coleman, ATL (at CAR), $4,700; Alex Collins, BAL (at TEN), $4,600; Marlon Mack, IND (at HOU), $4,100

Wide Receiver

Dez Bryant, DAL (vs. KC), $6,400 - This is the second time in three weeks I've recommended the Prescott-Bryant stack, and while it hasn't truly struck gold this season, the veteran wideout did produce a season-high 19.3 DK points when I recommended him back in Week 7 (at SF). Bryant's current mark of 5.7 per target may be perplexing, but it seems bound to improve sooner rather than later, given that he physically looks the same and his QB is playing at a high level. Bryant will eventually parlay his 9.1 targets per game into some outings with triple-digit yards and a score, perhaps starting with Sunday's matchup against a Kansas City defense that ranks dead last at limiting wideout production on DraftKings.

T.Y. Hilton, IND (at HOU), $4,900 - I may be a little bit biased because I've benefitted from Hilton's inconsistency, only rostering him in high percentage of my lineups the two weeks he ended up topping 150 yards. The other side of the coin is six games with single-digit DK points, including each of the last three. The inconsistency has been drastic even for a wideout who's reliant on deep passes, but this feels like the right week to take the risk, with Hilton checking in below $5,000 for the first time in recent memory. He'll be up against an injury-ravaged Houston defense that just surrendered triple-digit yards to both Tyler Lockett and Paul Richardson (undersized, fleet-footed receivers) in a memorable Week 9 shootout. While Jacoby Brissett won't come anywhere close to Russell Wilson's 452-yard, four-score performance, something in the range of 15-20 DK points should be enough to allow for Hilton to have a big game.

Other options: Julio Jones, ATL (at CAR), $7,800; Michael Thomas, NO (vs. TB), $7,200; Tyreek Hill, KC (at DAL), $6,700; DeSean Jackson, TB (at NO), $5,500; Sammy Watkins, LAR (at NYG), $4,200; Allen Hurns, JAX (vs. CIN), $4,100; Jeremy Maclin, BAL (at TEN), $4,000; Marquise Goodwin, SF (vs. ARI), $3,800

Tight End

Ryan Griffin, HOU (vs. IND), $3,000 - Odd as it may seem, Griffin could be a short term beneficiary of the ACL injury suffered by Deshaun Watson, whose aggressive style of play was a godsend for DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller. Not so much for Griffin, who drew only 25 targets over the past five games despite logging at least 81 percent of the offensive snaps in each contest. His snap count should remain elevated for one more game, as C.J. Fiedorowicz (concussion) can't return from IR until next week. With the more conservative Tom Savage stepping back in under center, Griffin should get a few of the targets that had been going to Hopkins and Fuller. This obviously isn't the safest pick, but there simply aren't any other sub-$4,000 tight ends I feel comfortable rostering this week.

Other options: Zach Ertz, PHI (vs. DEN), $6,800; Travis Kelce, KC (at DAL), $6,700; Evan Engram, NYG (vs. LAR), $5,600; Jimmy Graham, SEA (vs. WAS), $5,000; Jack Doyle, IND (at HOU), $4,300; Vernon Davis, WAS (at SEA), $4,100

D/ST

Philadelphia Eagles (vs. DEN), $3,300 - This one doesn't require too much explaining, as the Eagles are 7.5-point favorites for a home matchup with Brock Osweiler. The Denver offensive line has faded after getting off to a strong start, and the likely return of Emmanuel Sanders (ankle) won't be enough to make up for a mediocre running game and poor quarterback play. The Bengals are the only team with an implied total lower than Denver's 17.75 this week.

Other options: Jacksonville Jaguars (vs. CIN), $3,800; Arizona Cardinals (vs. SF), $3,500; Los Angeles Rams (at NYG), $3,100; Green Bay Packers (vs. DET), $2,800; Carolina Panthers (vs. ATL), $2,700

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Jerry Donabedian plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: FanDuel: jd0505, DraftKings: jd0505.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Jerry Donabedian
Jerry was a 2018 finalist for the FSWA's Player Notes Writer of the Year and DFS Writer of the Year awards. A Baltimore native, Jerry roots for the Ravens and watches "The Wire" in his spare time.
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