This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
We had a nice week last week hitting all but one of the player props and hitting the Las Vegas money line. While past results guarantee nothing for the future, let's see if we can continue to roll this week.
Games
Watt vs. Watt, that's the game I'm going to start with. I think Houston might be the best 0-2 team and both of the Steelers wins weren't overly impressive in my opinion. Deshaun Watson will be the difference here and if nothing else David Johnson will be extensively used out of the backfield. Take the Texans and the points while sprinkling in a less amount on the money line (+180).
The Bengals also have an argument for being a very good 0-2 team losing to the Chargers by three and the Browns by five. The Chargers game swung on an OPI call on A.J. Green (a missed FG too) and there's no shame in losing to the Browns by five at their home field. Do we know that the Eagles and all the injuries they've suffered haven't had a huge impact on the team to start the season? Even now that some players are back have they had time to work with their teammates on their timing and tendencies of the player working next to them? I think the Bengals keep this close so I'm going to stay away from the money line but take them and the 4.5 points.
It's difficult to back a team whose best, healthy wide receiver is Chris Hogan but here we are. 11.5 points is a lot to lay to any NFL team and I'm not sure the Colts are that good of a team. The lost to the Jaguars and then beat the Vikings at home. Do we know that a victory over Minnesota is anything special? I think the key here is for the Jets to run the ball and slow the game down as much as possible to limit the number of possessions. I also like take the New York money line +440 or if you want to get really adventurous, take the Jets -2.5 for +540.
The favorite that sticks out to me is taking the Patriots at home laying 5.5 points. I think the Raiders are the most overrated 2-0 team right now and New England was close to winning against one of the best teams in the leagues, the Seahawks. I hate the Patriots' money line (-275!) so I'm only interested in the point spread for this game. There is definite value in taking the +235 money line for Vegas if you're leaning that way; I'd rather have that than them with the points.
I usually don't partake in the over/under game unless I see something I really like. While I'm fully aware of the scores in their first two games, 57 is a high total for any NFL game including Seattle/Dallas. This line opened at 55 in most places and quickly rose to 57. That means they have to average over two touchdowns per quarter (using my Euclid-like math skills). There's a path to seeing a run-heavy game by both teams chewing up the clock and having this game easily going under. That's the way I'm leaning.
Player Yardage Props
Devin Singletary OVER 81.5 rushing and receiving yards
There won't be Frank Gore or Zack Moss for the first time in a while to vulture touches away from Singletary. While the Rams have a good defense, they've been gashed by Ezekiel Elliott and Miles Sanders their first two games.
Will Fuller OVER 55.5 receiving yards
I'm guessing there's some injury risk figured into this prop and last week's goose egg doesn't help. However, he's off the injury report and should be heavily targeted. Fuller is +225 as an anytime TD scorer so taking both is advised if you think he'll break a long TD.
Derrick Henry OVER 10.5 receiving yards
Henry is coming off a 2-0-0 game last week so this number is down from where it was the first two weeks. It seems like only one catch has a 50-50 chance of hitting the over and the Vikings have been awful on defense. He had a 3-3-15 line Week 1 and I'll predict he does something along the lines of 3-2-14 to hit the over. I love this prop the most this week for what it's worth.
Jarvis Landry OVER 48.5 receiving yards
Landry has had some extra time to rest his hip after Cleveland played last Thursday night. Washington isn't a secondary to be overly concerned with and if you're feeling frisky, hit the anytime TD prop on Jarvis too (+190).
Dalton Schultz UNDER 37.5 receiving yards
A quick glance at this and it seems suspicious that the number is this low after logging 88 yards last week. The fact of the matter is though that Dak Prescott has arguably the best trio of wide receivers in the league. They should be the ones getting the work (more on that later) while Schultz should see a big drop in targets.
Player Anytime TD
Allen Lazard, Marquez Valdes-Scantling +135
I don't think these lines will move much even if or when Davante Adams is ruled out. The Packers have played excellent football and with Adams out it would make sense that both of these players would be heavily targeted by Aaron Rodgers. Aaron Jones would be the focal point of the Saints defense so there should be opportunities for both Lazard and MVS. Take both counting on winning .35 cents on the dollar with the upside for both to hit.
T.Y. Hilton +135
Hilton dropped a long touchdown last week and it's doubtful that happens again if he gets the chance this week. I'm not adverse to hitting the over on 57.5 receiving yards on him as well as he has the chance of breaking a long one every game.
Michael Gallup +285
The Cowboys have scored 57 points through two games and Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup and CeeDee Lamb combined have...zero touchdowns. If you're on board with this being a shootout, logic would say one of these three wide receivers should score. Out of the three Gallup has the best odds which is why I'm choosing him. There's nothing wrong with using Cooper (+160) or Lamb (+210) as well.
KJ Hamler +400
While Drew Lock will miss this game, Jeff Driskel has had a week to work with Hamler and the other first-stringers. It's a good sign Hamler got seven targets last week and his position on the preseason depth chart suggests he's worked with Driskel extensively during the preseason. Therefore, there should be a good rapport between the two.
Drew Sample +425
Sample is now the starting tight end and had a 9-7-45 line last week showing the targets should be there. There could easily be a scenario inside of the five where they run play-action using Joe Mixon and Burrow finds a wide-open Sample in the end zone. A.J. Green (+220) is also an attractive option in this game to consider.
