This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
Are we at Week 13 already? Lucky Week 13 (I hope!). Let's take a look at who we should back this week.
GAMES
My favorite pick of the week is the Rams -13. I'm usually taking the underdog with the points but this week, I see this as a Rams blowout. They're coming off a bad stretch of games and getting the Jaguars at home seems like a recipe to right the ship. The Rams are around 13:1 to win the Super Bowl, a number that will go down after they beat Jacksonville this weekend.
I'm sticking with the points in a divisional matchup especially when the home team is getting 4.5 points. So let's back the Steelers, who can't play any worse than they did last week. Baltimore hasn't looked great as of recent play and Lamar Jackson seems a bit off this season. Look for Najee Harris to get rolling and taking the points here seems like the right play.
Seattle Seahawks +3.5 - The Seahawks may be a broken team and they definitely have no running game. On their last drive against the Football Team, Russell Wilson showed signs of him being his old self so there's hope he can rekindle the past years. I still don't trust Jimmy G and playing at home with fans in the stands means something in Seattle.
PLAYER PROPS
Michael Pittman OVER 62.5 Receiving Yards - Pittman was unspectacular last week with only 53 receiving yards despite getting 10 targets (four catches). This week should provide some progression to the mean, and it's a solid matchup against the Texans who are 21st defending the wide receiver position.
Tyler Boyd OVER 38.5 Receiving Yards - It's tough to read the tea leaves week in and week out with the Bengals receivers, but they have a good matchup this week at home against the Chargers who are giving up points left and right. This is easily a prop that could be won by halftime.
Leonard Fournette UNDER 62.5 Rushing Yards - Fournette is coming off a huge game rushing for 100 yards and scoring four touchdowns. However, this seems like a Brady passing game and before last week Fournette was under this yardage in three consecutive games. Let's fade recency bias here.
DK Metcalf OVER 56.5 Receiving Yards - While I know he's fallen off a bit as of late, there's no denying how talented Metcalf is. If he's hiding an injury, I'd like to know about it but let's assume he's completely healthy. He had a season-low four targets last week so that number should improve this week as will his yardage total.
PLAYER TOUCHDOWNS
Alexander Mattison -165 - I actually think the Lions get into the win column this weekend but that doesn't mean they won't give up points. I don't like laying these kind of odds but Mattison scored last week in a relief effort of Dalvin Cook. I'd bank on the over props in general for Mattison this week.
Jerry Jeudy +250, Courtland Sutton +350 - I'll Martindale this given this should be a high scoring game. These odds seem pretty high and it'll only take one of these receivers to make taking both to pay off. Kansas City ranks around league-average against the wide receiver position.
Jamaal Williams +130 - Williams is in line for a big workload and that includes the goal line work. Williams should easily see 15-plus touches in this contest and one of those should put him into the end zone.
Corey Davis +190, Elijah Moore +190 - The Jets will be home (which should help) and hopefully the weather won't play a factor. Just one of these guys scoring will turn a nice profit and there's always the chance both will score which will be gravy at that point. Moore has four touchdowns in his last four games while Davis has four touchdowns in eight games played this season.
