This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
The playoffs are finally upon us and we've got five games - two on Saturday, three on Sunday and an odd game on Monday night. Remember, the playoffs will always have upsets and sometimes it's worth it to forget about it and take the money line rather than the point spread. Let's see who I like this weekend.
GAMES
Los Angeles Rams 
(-4) vs. Arizona Cardinals 
I'm struggling where to find where the Cardinals are significantly better than the Rams, maybe at quarterback? Kyler Murray has struggled recently and doesn't a game above a 6.9 YPA in his last four contests. Everything about Arizona is heading in the wrong direction; they've lost four of their last five games including at home to the Rams and the defense has allowed at least 22 points in their last six games. The Rams have a significant edge on defense and the offense should score enough to easily cover here.
Cincinnati Bengals 
-5 vs. Las Vegas Raiders 
Opposite of the Cardinals are the Bengals, who come in on a hot streak. Taking away Week 18's meaningless game in Cleveland, they had won three straight contests scoring 90 over that span of games. The Bengals are nothing special on defense but with home field advantage it seems like all they'll have to do is get a few stops and let the offense do the rest. I also like taking the Bengals team points at over 26.5 at -125.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 
-8 vs. Philadelphia Eagles 
There's nothing here to indicate the Eagles should win this game. They have the worst point differential (+59) of any playoff team and of their nine wins, eight were against teams with losing records. The other win? A victory over the 9-8 Saints who had Trevor Siemian under center that game (they allowed 29 points to New Orleans in that game). Shaquil Barrett and Mike Evans are completely healthy and besides Chris Godwin, it appears all starters should be good to go.
For the record, I do like the Steelers +12.5 and their money line at +450. I can see a scenario where Pittsburgh slows down the game and uses a lot of Najee Harris to keep Patrick Mahomes and company off the field.
PLAYER PROPS
Joe Mixon OVER 100.5 Rushing and Receiving Yards
The Bengals should have no problem moving the ball at home and Mixon easily hit this over earlier this season. I wonder if this number is depressed with him just coming off the COVID-19 list as some players haven't looked as strong. However, we don't know much this affected him and I'm willing to risk he's good for 20-plus touches in this critical home game.
Cole Beasley OVER 3.5 Receptions (-165)
I don't like the odds here but this is a prop that has gone over in three of his last four games. I'd think the cold weather has Josh Allen throwing the shorter, safe routes Beasley runs and what I like about this prop is it could easily be over by halftime. While Isaiah McKenzie has been a nice story, he's only run 20 routes over his last two games compared to Beasley's 68.
Deebo Samuel OVER 28.5 Rushing Yards (-125)
This one is a bit of a head-scratcher as Samuel has gone over this mark in seven of his last eight games. Elijah Mitchell returned two games ago and Samuel still got seven and eight carries in those two outings. You can bet the 49ers will get the ball in his hands as much as possible and it could take only a carry or two for this over to hit.
PLAYER TOUCHDOWNS
Rob Gronkowski 2+ Touchdowns +500 - If you want to be more conservative, his anytime touchdown is at +100. However, I like this increase in odds and people may have forgotten he's done this twice already this season. It also helps that the Eagles are 31st in the league against the position and allowed the most receiving touchdowns with 14.
Pat Freiermuth +250 - While has hasn't scored in three games, Freiermuth has quietly scored seven touchdowns this season. The lack of scoring in the last three games has likely pushed this line up as high as it is which is a good thing for bettors. With Ben Roethlisberger unable to throw the ball downfield effectively, he's targeted Freiermuth 15 times in the last two games including three red zone targets. The Chiefs are also a good matchup ranking 18th against opposing tight ends.
Cooper Kupp -165 - I thought these odds would be much worse than this given Kupp has scored in five of his last six games. He has 13 red-zone targets in his last five games showing the Rams are making a concerned effort to get him the ball when they're going in to score. It wouldn't surprise me to see this line to -175 or -185 as the weekend goes on.
