Exploiting the Matchups: Divisional Round Breakdown

2023 was the lowest-scoring regular season (21.8 ppg) since 2017, with 331.6 yards per team game being the least since 2008. The wild-card round was a different story, however, and now we're looking at a divisional round in which every game has an over/under of 43.5 or more, including two around 50 and one other that might be close to that number if not for the expectation of extremely cold weather in Buffalo.

It's also supposed to be quite cold in Baltimore, and in San Francisco a rainy weekend may or may not end up impacting the Saturday night matchup between the Packers and Niners. Below we'll look at forecasts for every game, in addition to betting lines and some of the specific matchups that are most important for fantasy and betting.

Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens - 4:30 ET Saturday

Betting Odds

Over/Under: 43.5 (4th/4)  / Line: Ravens -9.5

Implied Totals: Texans (17.0 - 8th/8) at Ravens (26.5 - 3rd)

The Ravens hope the Texans' season will end the same way it started... with a loss in Baltimore. But despite the large spread here, there's reason to think it'll be a closer game than the 25-9 affair in Week 1. The main reason, of course, is that superstar rookie QB C.J. Stroud now has a full season of experience. I'm a Ravens fan and think the line should be about -7, not 9.5. And that's not a knock against a fantastic Baltimore team; it's an acknowledgement that the Texans are well-coached and led by one of the league's best QBs (yup, already).

Weather

It's going to be cold in Baltimore on Saturday, with temperatures in the low-to-mid 20s. That's probably not quite cold enough to really matter, especially without precipitation or strong winds. Baltimore is getting a few inches of snow Friday, but that should be done falling long before kickoff.

Injuries

Texans Injuries

OUT - DE Jerry Hughes (ankle)

Questionable - FB Andrew Beck (back)

Questionable - OT George Fant (illness)

Not listed here is WR Noah Brown, who suffered a season-ending shoulder injury last week. Robert Woods was playing through a hip injury, and ultimately it was John Metchie who stepped up to take most of Brown's vacated snaps. It's not quite clear how that will play out this weekend, and one of the possibilities is something we saw last week — more playing time for No. 2 TE Brevin Jordan. 

Hughes isn't a huge loss; he had three sacks and a 41.7 percent snap share in 17 games this season. Beck is more important to the Texans (and for fantasy purposes), because they use a fullback about one-third of the time when he's healthy yet don't carry a backup. In  the two games he missed earlier this season (Weeks 10, 17), the Texans simply used 12 personnel (two TEs) instead of 21... which would mean more playing time for some combination of Jordan, Dalton Schultz and blocker Eric Saubert. If Beck can't go this week, Jordan would have a second factor working in his favor for additional playing time (on top of Brown being absent and the WR group depleted).

Ravens Injuries

OUT - CB Marlon Humphrey (calf)

OUT - WR/RS Tylan Wallace (knee)

OUT - TE Mark Andrews (ankle)

Humphrey is the team's top cornerback, but the Ravens haven't missed a beat when he (or anyone else) has been out of the lineup this year. Their safeties are arguably the best in the league, and the CB depth has proven surprisingly strong after being a weakness for many years.

Wallace has done a nice job filling in as the return man for Devin Duvernay, who is expected to be activated from injured reserve Friday and occupy his usual role after missing the past month with a back injury. In other words, the Ravens won't miss Wallace.

The headliner here is Andrews, who was a full practice participant Wednesday and Thursday but can't necessarily be assumed to be ready. He was out for two months with an injury most thought would be season-ending, and backup Isaiah Likely has been one of the league's most productive pass-catching TEs in that time. It might be worth activating Andrews if only as a decoy, so it'll be hard to project his workload even if he comes off IR on Friday. 

Friday Evening Update: Andrews wasn't activated and won't play

Strengths/Weaknesses

Texans Greatest Strength: QB C.J. Stroud & WR Nico Collins

Texans Greatest Weakness: Safeties DeAndre Houston-Carson & Jalen Pitre

Stroud is already a star, and after losing his first two starts he's subsequently won 10 of 14 games. There were a couple of ugly games for Houston's offense – Week 8 at Carolina and Week 14 at the Jets – but otherwise they've scored at least 19 points in all of Stroud's starts since the season-opening loss to Baltimore. 

Collins has looked the part of a bonafide No. 1 receiver, finishing with 80-1,297-8 on 109 targets despite missing two full games, nearly all of a third and having a limited role Week 16 upon returning from a calf injury. He didn't miss a beat after Tank Dell's season-ending fibula fracture, benefitting from the extra targets without suffering from extra defensive attention. Collins will be a second- or third-round pick in fantasy drafts next summer.

The Texans don't really have any glaring weaknesses, which is surprising given where they were at this time a year ago. The obvious soft spot is at safety, where journeyman Houston-Carson and second-year pro Jalen Pitre have given up some big plays. But the Texans have a strong group of corners and a stud pass rusher in rookie Will Anderson, so their pass defense hasn't been too bad overall. They finished the regular season 27th in NY/A (6.5) but had nearly as many interceptions (14) as TD passes allowed (17). And only the Patriots were better in terms of yards allowed per carry (3.5).

Ravens Greatest Strength: Pass Defense 

Ravens Greatest Weakness: Fourth-Quarter Struggles

Baltimore led the league in quite a few categories, including rushing yards on offense and a slew of pass-defense efficiency stats (including 4.7 NY/A). It's all but a given that the Ravens have the best rushing attack in the league whenever QB Lamar Jackson is healthy, and they were also among the league's most efficient passing teams this year, especially late in the season. 

The only real issue in Baltimore this year was a tendency for fourth-quarter meltdowns, and even that hasn't been a problem for a while now. The Ravens were dominant in Quarters 1-3 all season, and the past month they've been able to avoid the choke jobs that plagued them early in the year. 

What We Know

1. Baltimore will try to run the ball; that's always a given
2. Houston will want to get the ball to Nico Collins when passing

What We Don't Know

1. If Mark Andrews will play
2. If Odell Beckham will get more snaps in the playoffs
3. If the Texans will air it out or try to stay balanced
4. If the Texans will use 12 personnel or 21 personnel more often

DraftKings Plays

QB Lamar Jackson ($7,900)

RB Devin Singletary ($5,700)

RB Justice Hill ($4,800)

 WR Nico Collins ($7,100)

 WR Odell Beckham ($4,600)

 WR Robert Woods ($3,500)

WR John Metchie ($3,400)

 TE Dalton Schultz ($4,400)

 TE Brevin Jordan ($2,700)

 D/ST Ravens ($3,500)

Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers - 8:20 ET Saturday 

Betting Odds

Over/Under: 50.5 (1st)  / Line: 49ers -9.5

Implied Totals: Packers (20.5 - 7th) at 49ers (30.0 - 1st)

This is the biggest mismatch of the divisional round if you look at how the teams performed throughout the entire season, but Green Bay's offense made major strides throughout the year and now the defense has turned things around in recent weeks after a brutal stretch in early December. The 49ers are still huge favorites, and rightfully so, but their defense isn't quite as dominant as it was the past few years, which could open the door for Green Bay to pull off a high-scoring upset. The odds of the Packers slowing down San Francisco's offense are... not great, to put it nicely.

Weather

It's going to be a rainy weekend in San Francisco, but it isn't clear if there will be significant precipitation during the game Saturday evening. If so, we probably won't see the type of heavy rain that has a huge impact on strategy/scoring/kicking. The over/under reflects this expectation, and also that there's no concern about the temperature (50s/60s) or wind (~10 mph).

Injuries

Packers Injuries

OUT - OLB Kingsley Enagbare (knee)

Questionable - RB AJ Dillon (neck)

Questionable - CB Jaire Alexander (ankle)

Questionable - ILB Isaiah McDuffie (neck)

Alexander is the only starter listed here, after picking off a pass last week in Dallas but then injuring his ankle. He's seemingly suffered a million injuries this year, in addition to being suspended for a game by the team after naming himself a captain for a December game in Carolina (because he's from Charlotte). Goofy dude, but also the team's best cover man. He didn't practice at all this week, which seems like good news for Brandon Aiyuk in particular.

49ers Injuries

OUT - DE Clelin Ferrell (knee)

Questionable - LB Dre Greenlaw (Achilles)

The Niners should be healthy after a bye week apart from one backup defensive end. Greenlaw managed limited practices Wednesday and Thursday, and his absence from a meaningless Week 18 contest doesn't say much. He handled his full workload Week 17, FWIW.

Strengths/Weaknesses

Packers Greatest Strength: Pass-Catching Depth / Playcalling

Packers Greatest Weakness: Run Defense

QB Jordan Love deserves a lot of credit, but he's also had quite a bit of help, starting with the league's most underrated coach, Matt LaFleur. I'm not sure how he can be underrated after reviving Aaron Rodgers' career and directing an offense that threw for 48 TD passes with Marquez Valdes-Scantling as the No. 2 WR and Robert Tonyan as the top tight end... but that's what happened. I guess the narrative at the time was that Rodgers' decline was entirely Mike McCarthy's fault.

Anyway, the Packers have entirely remade their receiving corps since then, drafting numerous pass catchers the past two years. It looks like they struck gold in the middle rounds with Romeo Doubs in 2022 and Dontayvion Wicks in 2023, not to mention second-round picks Christian Watson and Jayden Reed. It's not just that the WR group is deep; they also all offer unique skill sets... and the team has two impressive rookie tight ends in Luke Musgrave (Round 2) and Tucker Kraft (Round 3).

For fantasy it's a bit of a problem, perhaps, as we don't know exactly how WR and TE snaps will be divided. Last week the leaders in that regard were Doubs (who had a huge game) and Kraft, but we could see Watson get more snaps in his second game back from injury and/or Musgrave play more in his third game back from a kidney laceration. Reed is locked in as the slot guy, and at times has looked like the team's best playmaker. On top of that, the Packers have a resurgent Aaron Jones, one of the best dual-threat backs in the league.

It's a good thing the Packers have all those weapons, because they finished the regular season ranked 24th in YPC allowed (4.4) and 28th in rushing yards allowed (128.3). That's a problem against most teams, and even more so against the one that has Christian McCaffrey in its backfield. And we've already seen this season that defenses get roasted by Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle and Deebo Samuel if they commit to stopping McCaffrey. One might even argue for letting the Niners get their rushing yards rather than opening things up for the huge plays in the passing game that Brock Purdy and Co. have produced all season long.

49ers Greatest Strength: Loaded with Superstars

49ers Greatest Weakness: Interior O-Line

In addition to the horde of playmakers listed above, San Francisco can make a case for having the best offensive lineman in the league (LT Trent Williams), the best inside linebacker (Fred Warner) and one of the better cornerbacks (Charvarius Ward). The 49ers have an interior lineman (Javon Hargrave) with 25.5 sacks over the past three seasons and he isn't even considered one of the best players on their team. You've also probably heard about their coach, Kyle Shanahan, whose offense is among the two or three best-designed in the league (if not No. 1).

The weakness here is essentially non-existent, but if we're going to nitpick, the interior line doesn't really impress. Both starting guards have bottom-half PFF grades among qualified players, and C Jake Brendel is far from a superstar. It just hasn't really mattered much, and it's not like the Packers have a dominant defensive line (though they do have Kenny Clark, who recorded a career-high 7.5 sacks this year). It's hard to imagine Green Bay holding the 49ers under 20 points unless Purdy gets hurt or something.

What We Know

1. RBs Christian McCaffrey and Aaron Jones will dominate backfield touches
2. Both teams will try to stay run/pass balanced and hit big gains off play-action

What We Don't Know

1. How Green Bay's WR snaps will be divided
2. If Luke Musgrave will take more work away from Tucker Kraft
3. Whether the Packers can slow down the San Francisco offense at all               

DraftKings Plays

QB Brock Purdy ($6,500)

RB Christian McCaffrey ($8,800)

RB Aaron Jones ($6,700)

 WR Brandon Aiyuk ($6,900)

 WR Jayden Reed ($5,200)

 TE George Kittle ($5,200)

 TE Tucker Kraft ($3,100)

D/ST 49ers ($3,400)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions - 3:20 ET Sunday 

Betting Odds

Over/Under: 49.0 (2nd)  / Line: Lions -6.5

Implied Totals: Buccaneers (21.25 - 6th) at Lions (27.75 - 2nd)

The Bucs finished 20th in points and seventh in points allowed, but that's largely a product of pace, red-zone efficiency* and schedule. A closer look shows them to have been about average on both offense and defense, with the latter getting a slight nod as the superior unit because it's now quite healthy after being banged up for much of the year.

The Lions are an offense-driven team, and you might even argue that their scoring averages (fifth in points, 23rd in points allowed) understate the extent to which that's true.

*Tampa finished 30th in red-zone TD percentage on offense (44.9 percent) and third on defense (42.9 percent). In between the 20s, the Bucs offense actually played better than the defense.

Weather

This is our lone dome game of the week, and it'll be the last until the Super Bowl unless the Lions and Packers both win this week to set up an NFC North showdown at Ford Field for the NFCCG.

Injuries

Buccaneers Injuries

Questionable - RB Chase Edmonds (toe)

Questionable - OLB Shaquil Barrett (ankle)

Edmonds and Barrett both missed practice Wednesday and Thursday. From a real-life standpoint, Barrett is far more important, but in fantasy it's possible an Edmonds absence would lead to Rachaad White handling even more snaps/touches than usual (rather than Sean Tucker or Patrick Laird taking over Edmonds' usual role). 

Barrett handled his second-largest snap share (75 percent) of the season in last week's win over Philadelphia, so he should be ready by Sunday if he manages even a limited practice Friday.

Lions Injuries

OUT - WR Kalif Raymond (knee)

Questionable - TE Sam LaPorta (knee)

Questionable - LB James Houston (ankle)

Raymond and LaPorta were the only Lions at less than full participation Thursday. And LaPorta took 80 percent of snaps last week (seven days after hyper-extending his knee) and was listed as a full practice participant Wednesday. So really, the only question here is whether or not Detroit's No. 4 WR can play.

Strengths/Weaknesses

Buccaneers Greatest Strength: WRs Mike Evans & Chris Godwin

Buccaneers Greatest Weakness: Lack of a clear strength

Evans unexpectedly had one of his best seasons at age 30 while catching passes from Baker Mayfield, including scoring eight of his 13 TDs from outside the red zone. Godwin, on the other hand, caught just two TD passes and finished with easily his lowest catch rate (63.8) and least yards per game (60.2) since 2018. The 27-year-old is back in form of late, however, with 40.8 percent of his receiving yardage (418) coming over the final five weeks of the regular season. He then put up 4-45-1 on just five targets in last week's 32-9 win over Philadelphia.

But even with those two playing well and Mayfield having his best season in a half-decade, the Bucs didn't have an elite passing game by any means. In fact, there's nothing they did all that well this year... they just also weren't too terrible at anything, apart from some mid-year struggles on pass defense that largely can be blamed on injury problems that have since cleared up. Their run defense (3.8 YPC) was good, but not quite as dominant as in previous years, and on offense their run game came around as the season progressed.

Lions Greatest Strength: The entire offense

Lions Greatest Weakness: The secondary

OC Ben Johnson spent part of this week doing video interviews and seems destined to be a head coach somewhere next season. He deserves it, but don't assume he's a lock for success at his next destination. Coaching Jared Goff to his best season since Year 2 of the Sean McVay era in LA is impressive, no doubt, but Johnson also had a ton to work with, including an elite, healthy offensive line. The one weakness is Detroit's lack of a reliable second option at wide receiver, though I'm not sure it really matters when Amon-Ra St. Brown is your No. 1 and you have LaPorta and Jahmyr Gibbs to catch passes as well.

The defense is far less impressive, in large part because of a subpar secondary. Rookie slot corner Brian Branch has been impressive, but even he is more of a playmaker than a shutdown cover guy, and the Bucs mostly use Godwin and Evans on the perimeter in any case. Detroit finished the regular season 30th in NY/A allowed (6.7) and third in YPC allowed (3.7), though the pass defense did hold this same Bucs team in check back in Week 6 (when the Lions won 20-6 on the road). Overall, though, the Lions have been susceptible to big plays in the passing game; they finished 10th in opponent completion percentage (63.1) but dead last in yards allowed per completion 12.3).

What We Know

1. The Bucs will look for big plays to WR Mike Evans
2. The Lions will throw to WR Amon-Ra St. Brown and TE Sam LaPorta off play-action

What We Don't Know

1. If DT Vita Vea and Co. can battle Detroit's O-line to a draw, or something like it
2. If RB Rachaad White will find any room to run or need dump-off targets to get his yards
3. How WR3 snaps will be split between Tampa's Trey Palmer and David Moore   

DraftKings Plays

QB Jared Goff ($6,300)

WR Amon-Ra St. Brown ($8,200)

WR Mike Evans ($7,200)

WR Josh Reynolds ($3,700)

 WR Jameson Williams ($3,600)

D/ST Lions ($3,300)

Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills - 6:35 ET Sunday 

Betting Odds

Over/Under: 45.5 (3rd)  / Line: Bills -2.5

Implied Totals: Chiefs (21.5 - 5th) at Ravens (26.5 - 3rd)

The Chiefs have the largest implied total of this week's underdogs and the Bills have the smallest among the favorites. It's a matchup we've seen a bunch in recent years – typically with over/unders around 50 or more – but both teams took a step backward in passing efficiency and the Chiefs fielded their best defense of the Mahomes era. 

The Bills won 20-17 at Kansas City on Dec. 10, aided by a rarely called penalty that wiped out a spectacular long TD (Kadarius Toney scored on a lateral from Travis Kelce but was called for being lined up a bit offsides). The Bills would've had plenty of time for a response drive if the TD had counted, so they might've still won without the penalty.

FWIW, I'm not really buying the Bills as favorites here, given that they're clearly the more injured team and Kansas City has the better QB and head coach. A six-game winning streak with four victories over fellow playoff teams is nice, but they also nearly lost to the Chargers and Patriots in that span, and the Week 18 win over Miami included a punt return TD plus a lot of help from the Dolphins' numerous injuries.

Weather

It'll likely be around 20 degrees Fahrenheit or even colder at kickoff, but the forecast doesn't call for precipitation or especially strong winds (at least by Buffalo standards). The wind is expected to stay below 20 mph, so there shouldn't be a ton of weather impact here, especially given that both teams have a lot of players and coaches accustomed to playing outdoors in January. Neither Josh Allen nor Patrick Mahomes has ever seemed especially bothered by cold weather unless it's accompanied by heavy precipitation and/or strong winds.

Injuries

Chiefs Injuries

OUT - OT Wanya Morris (concussion)

OUT - WR Skyy Moore (knee)

OUT - DT Derrick Nnadi (elbow)

Questionable - WR Kadarius Toney (hip/ankle)

Questionable - WR Justyn Ross (hamstring)

Nnadi is the only starter that appears in any real danger of missing Sunday's game for the Chiefs, and he isn't exactly someone I'd call crucial. He played 45.8 percent of the team's defensive snaps in 17 games this year, recording 29 tackles, one sack and one QB hit while getting PFF's No. 121 grade (41.4) out of 130 eligible interior defensive linemen.

Bills Injuries

OUT - WR Gabe Davis (knee)

OUT - CB Christian Benford (knee)

OUT - S Taylor Rapp (calf)

OUT - LB Baylon Spector (back)

Questionable - CB Taron Johnson (concussion)

Questionable - CB Rasul Douglas (knee)

Questionable - LB Terrel Bernard (ankle)

Questionable - P Sam Martin  (hamstring)

Each of Buffalo's top three cornerbacks is on the injury report this week, with Benford and Johnson suffering injuries last week (and exiting early) in a game Douglas was inactive for. The Bills may also will be without No. 3 safety Rapp, whose presence might otherwise have helped to make up for the problems at cornerback.

Strengths/Weaknesses

Chiefs Greatest Strength: QB Patrick Mahomes

Chiefs Greatest Weakness: Mediocre Pass-Catching Group

The Chiefs allowed only 17.3 ppg this year, second best in the NFL, though their defense slumped a bit after a Week 10 bye. Mahomes, meanwhile, had his worst statistical season since becoming the starting QB, including a career-low 4.5 percent TD rate and a career-high 2.3 percent INT rate.

There have been plenty of theories on Kansas City's (relative) offensive struggles, including Mahomes simply playing worse, Tyreek Hill's absence being felt in a big way on delay, and/or former OC Eric Bieniemy being missed more than expected. Not to discount any of those entirely, but the most tangible problem I can see is a lack of pass-catching talent. TE Travis Kelce finally started showing his age this year, and the Chiefs basically have nothing of value behind him and standout rookie Rashee Rice.

The good news? Rice finally was promoted to a full-time role in December, which also meant less effort put into trying to make Toney (hip/ankle) and Skyy Moore (knee) happen. Toney and Moore might not even play this week and don't figure to take many snaps even if they do. That's probably a good thing, though perhaps less so when your No. 3 pass catcher is Justin Watson and your No. 4 is.... Marquez Valdes-Scantling?

Bills Greatest Strength: Consistent defense

Bills Greatest Weakness: Still unsure of identity on offense

The Bills lost their best cornerback and best linebacker to season-ending injuries early in the year, yet still finished fourth in scoring defense (18.3 ppg) and ninth in yards allowed (307.2) while recording an equal number of interceptions and TD passes surrendered (18). Per usual, Buffalo defended the pass better than the run, ranking sixth in opponent NY/A (5.5) and 28th in YPC (4.6). 

The Bills didn't actually do a bad job defending the run overall, but they gave up a few big games early in the season and probably were hurt a bit by facing more runs in situations where they were leading and focused on defending the pass. They did get lucky in the previous KC matchup, facing Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Jerick McKinnon (IR - hernia) rather than Isiah Pacheco. This Sunday they figure to see a lot of Pacheco, who had 25 of the Chiefs' 29 RB touches last week (and 73.3 percent snap share) before CEH got the final four carries in garbage time.

I also wonder if the Bills' strength is truly a strength this week, as the slew of injuries mentioned above could create serious weaknesses at LB and/or CB.

On offense, the Bills hit a rough patch from mid-October to mid-November, ultimately leading to the firing of OC Ken Dorsey and promotion of QBs coach Joe Brady. Things went better after the change, with Buffalo finding success running the ball more and passing less... at least until the final few weeks of the regular season. Lead back James Cook had five straight games with 100 total yards or more at one point, but now he's sitting on four in a row with less than 100 yards and below 4.0 yards per touch.

Meanwhile, WR Stefon Diggs remains stuck in the worst slump of his career, and Josh Allen's passing numbers aren't quite what they were in recent years. They do have secondary targets capable of stepping up behind Diggs, though one of those guys (Gabe Davis) is out for a second straight week, leaving Khalil Shakir as the No. 2 WR and Trent Sherfield as the No. 3. 

TE Dalton Kincaid might be thought of as the No. 2 pass catcher at this point, but his involvement hasn't been as consistent since Dawson Knox returned from a wrist injury, in part because Kincaid's poor blocking takes him off the field at times (and some of those plays end up being passes). Some might argue that the Bills offense actually is more versatile than in past years, but I think it was better when they knew they had an elite passing game they wanted to rely on.

What We Know

1. RB Isiah Pacheco will dominate KC's backfield snaps/touches
2. KC's passing game will focus on Rashee Rice and Travis Kelce

What We Don't Know

1. If the Chiefs are an offense-driven team or a defense-led one
2. If the Bills will have enough healthy bodies in the secondary
3. Whether the Bills prioritize their passing game or running game         

DraftKings Plays

QB Patrick Mahomes ($6,800)

RB Isiah Pacheco ($6,400)

WR Rashee Rice ($6,800)

WR Khalil Shakir ($3,800)

 TE Travis Kelce ($6,000)

 D/ST Chiefs ($2,700)