Exploiting the Matchups: Every Day He's Russellin'

It's do or die time. Win or go home.

If your league doesn't begin its playoffs until next week, many of you are facing a play-in game just for the right to make your run. Either way, if you're sweating things right now then that means there's no tomorrow with a loss.

In the past two years of writing this column I offered somewhat contrasting takes for how to approach the playoffs. In 2014 I advocated taking a chance based on an extreme matchup (hello, Cleveland Browns) or calling your shot with a suddenly hot player (I see you, Malcolm Mitchell). Last year I reversed course a bit and recommended aiming for the highest floor with all of your starts, playing it safe essentially. We saw a ton of injuries shake the fantasy landscape in 2015, particularly at the running back position, so it made sense to look for the likeliest source of touches and yards.

This year my approach splits the difference, so to speak. Starting the guys that got you here doesn't necessarily mean you're playing for the highest floor. On the other hand, you also shouldn't discount talent altogether to blindly trust positive matchups will deliver numbers to lesser guys (see the goose egg Marquess Wilson gave me and anyone that listened to me last week). So a happy medium sounds just right. Trust a few (and only few) extreme matchups -- Cleveland and San Fran will not slow down many opponents, while Denver will suck the life out of an aerial attack and Baltimore will stonewall ground games. Leave it at that if the choices are between fringe starters and your regular guys, and otherwise chase those with the most opportunity to make plays. Rushes, targets and passes. Volume this time of year is often the name of the game.

That's the mix. My 2016 formula. Employ it wisely and enjoy the ride. Just like every fantasy playoffs, there will be surprises, both good and bad.

As always, this is not intended as a traditional start/sit piece. Upgrades are guys you wouldn't roll out every week while downgrades are generally lineup mainstays but for whom you may want to consider an alternative based on elements of their opponent/situation. With that out of the way, let's get to it.

UPGRADE:

Quarterback

Russell Wilson, SEA at GB

Wilson has tossed three interceptions to just one score over the last two games while taking nine sacks and averaging only 224 yards passing. Lambeau couldn't be a more welcome sight to him this week. The Packers' corner situation is such a mess that even Brock Osweiler threw for two touchdowns in Green Bay, and in a snowstorm to boot.

Carson Palmer, AZ at MIA

Since Arizona has gone just 2-3 in the last five contests, Palmer's improved play has flown under the radar. During that stretch he's thrown for 1,526 yards and 11 touchdowns for an average of 305.2 yards and 2.2 scores per contest. This week, however, it will be impossible to ignore what Palmer does to a Dolphins defense who has had their back seven drastically exposed during the past two games -- 677 passing yards and seven touchdowns combined by Colin Kaepernick and Joe Flacco. That's right, they were torched for seven touchdowns by two erratic passers who have a combined 18 passing scores in their 18 other games.

Andy Dalton, CIN at CLE

Dalton is tied for fourth in passing yards this season but has just three games with more than one passing touchdown. One of those came last week in arguably his most impressive performance of the season, throwing for 332 yards and two scores on the Eagles without the services of A.J. Green. The last time he pitched it for over 300 and two TDs, you ask? When he last faced a Browns team that's dead last in passing scores allowed with 28. In that game, Green was a monster, but it was also the first action Tyler Eifert saw this season. So Dalton essentially is swapping one huge target for another. Either way, he'll be dicing up the Browns again.

Colin Kaepernick, SF vs. NYJ

Last week can be scrapped. Chip Kelly didn't want to put the ball in the hands of his best offensive playmaker in a steady snowfall. Simple as that. Kaepernick attempted five passes and ran six times. He was benched. What better way to press the reset button than a visit from a Jets team that's mailing in the rest of the season? Look for Kaepernick to get back to his scrambling, wheeling and dealing ways against a secondary that doesn't know who's on first. Or second. Or third. Heck, they really just don't cover anybody.

Running Back

Jeremy Hill, CIN at CLE

Hill is riding a six-game streak of at least 62 scrimmage yards or a touchdown, and that hot streak was kicked off against, you guessed it, the Browns. In fact, the first meeting with Cleveland marked his one and only 100-yard effort of the season, a 168-yard blasting of the league's 31st-ranked run defense. In that first taste of the dreadful Browns D, Hill touched it just 11 times for a whopping 192 yards and a long scoring jaunt. This time, however, Giovani Bernard is not around to steal 18 touches, making Hill a good bet to go two-for-two in hitting the century mark versus Cleveland.

Thomas Rawls, SEA at GB

The Packers' run defense hit a midseason lull as the secondary was bleeding yards and teams could throw to set up the run. It's been a bit rejuvenated the last couple weeks, but that coincided with Carson Wentz and Brock Osweiler struggling to move the ball through the air. Even then, while Green Bay stoned a banged up Lamar Miller last week, it was gashed by backups Jonathan Grimes and Alfred Blue, who each saw five totes for a combined 81 yards. With Russell Wilson keeping the Packers' back seven honest, look for a possessed Rawls to build off last week's 106-yard, two-score rampage.

Todd Gurley, LA vs. ATL

Only four defenses have allowed more touchdowns to running backs than the 15 Atlanta has relented. In fact, in the last seven games the Falcons let four No. 1 tailbacks register multiple touchdowns. And that quartet doesn't even include David Johnson, who blasted them for 161 scrimmage yards (103 receiving) and a score. Gurley has had a bumpy road all season, but last week ended a nine-game streak with at least 70 scrimmage yards. This week he gets back on track and then some.

Dion Lewis, NE vs. BAL

This is the matchup the Patriots have been prepping Lewis for since he returned in Week 11. The Ravens have the best run defense in football but have allowed 73 catches and 537 yards receiving to tailbacks, good for fourth (tied) and 10th most respectively. With no Rob Gronkowski to help as either a run-blocker or receiving weapon in the middle and underneath areas of the field, the Pats will be forced to throw more and involve Lewis heavily (and to a lesser extent James White). That slot weapon Danny Amendola is now out as well only further serves to bump up the value of Lewis, who is more than capable of moving all over the formation as a third or fourth receiver.

Wide Receiver

Demaryius Thomas & Emmanuel Sanders, DEN at TEN

It won't matter who lines up under center this week for the Broncos. The worst day a No. 1 receiver has had versus the porous Tennessee secondary in its last seven games is 65 yards and a score. Moreover, in that time span the Titans have given up 11 touchdowns to wideouts and allowed six performances of at least 95 yards and four of 125 or more. So ignore the fact that Thomas and Sanders have just three touchdowns and one 100-yard game between them during that same stretch. This week you can count on both.

Robby Anderson, NYJ at SF

Bryce Petty threw 25 times in the second half of the Jets' blowout loss to the Colts after taking over for a dreadful Ryan Fitzpatrick. Although Petty was equally dreadful, two important takeaways came out of the quarterback switch. 1) It's going to be permanent for what's left of a lost season for Gang Green. And 2) Petty only (well mostly) has eyes for Anderson. The 6-foot-3 speedster saw 11 of Petty's 25 attempts as he produced his best fantasy day of the season with 61 yards and a score. Anderson's second best game, in case you were wondering, was a 69-yard performance versus the Rams in Petty's only start this year. Facing a 49ers defense that just let Joshua Bellamy go for 93 yards in the snow and has allowed a league-high 20 TDs to wideouts, expect this young duo to keep improving a connection forged no doubt in extra spring and summer throwing sessions.

Pierre Garcon & DeSean Jackson, WAS at PHI

Jamison Crowder may be hogging the touchdowns, but both Garcon and Jackson remain big parts of one of the league's most prolific passing offenses. Kirk Cousins is just two yards shy of Matt Ryan for the second-most passing yards in the league and is on pace for nearly 5,000 yards. And the Eagles' sad secondary is going to keep Cousins and his wideouts flying high this week. Philly has allowed wideouts to produce nine touchdowns over its last five games (Doug Baldwin threw one) and has given up at least 90 yards to four receivers in its last three outings alone.

Tyler Lockett, SEA at GB

Speed, speed and more speed. Lockett's fresh legs (finally healthy after fighting through knee and thigh ailments) give the Seahawks offense a dimension it lacked for most of the season's first half. Over the last three wins, however, the explosive Lockett has generated gains of 30, 36, 40 and 75 while compiling 274 scrimmage yards and a touchdown on only 11 touches. Facing a Packers secondary that's been consistently torched this year (their 18 scores allowed to wideouts are second most to only SF), look for Lockett to blow past their safeties who love to crowd the box and run away from a group of inexperienced corners who don't effectively press at the line.

Tight End

Jason Witten, DAL at NYG

Only two teams have allowed more yards to the tight end position than the 834 given up by the Giants. It's no coincidence that Witten's season-high for targets (14) and catches (nine) came against Big Blue in Week 1, and his 66 yards in that contest mark his second-best effort of the season. After the future Hall of Famer's 130-game catch streak came to an unceremonious halt last week, expect the Cowboys to involve their franchise leader in receptions early and often against a defense that simply can't slow down the position.

Vance McDonald, SF vs. NYJ

The 49ers' leader in touchdown receptions with four, McDonald was riding a four-game streak of at least 50 yards or a touchdown before a snowy Chicago day ruined his and Colin Kaepernick's mojo. In those four prior contests he saw at least six targets in each as one of Kap's favorite weapons. You think he'll get back on track against a Jets team that just gave up three easy scores to Indy's top tight end and now has to travel across country on a short week? In a word: areyoufreakingkiddingmeofcourse. OK, that's a bunch of words mashed together but you get the point. Chalk this one up.

DOWNGRADE:

Quarterback

Aaron Rodgers, GB vs. SEA

If not for a hamstring injury that's hindered his mobility for the last five-plus quarters of action, no matchup would be a concern to Rodgers' owners. But given that development, this one should be. Seattle is going to dare the Packers to beat it on the ground. Any smart coach -- and it's hard not to acknowledge Pete Carroll as such -- will almost certainly throw waves of pressure at Rodgers when he drops back to test how quickly he can (or more likely can't) maneuver in and run from the pocket on one good leg. The results very well may mirror what Rodgers did versus the Seahawks in the 2014 NFC championship game when he gimped around with an injured calf to the tune of 178 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions.

Marcus Mariota, TEN vs. DEN

Some luck for Mariota having to come back from his bye week to a visit from the top-ranked Broncos pass defense, huh? As good as Mariota has been this season -- multiple TDs in 10 of 12 games, including eight straight -- his streak is going to come to a crashing halt against a unit that has allowed a measly 10 passing scores.

Matthew Stafford, DET vs. CHI

Stafford has thrown seven touchdowns in his last six games and needed a duck that Golden Tate took to the house to produce his lone 300-yard day in that stretch. The Bears, who have allowed 33.9% of their passing yards and seven of the 17 scores they've given up through the air to Aaron Rodgers, Andrew Luck and Jameis Winston, held Stafford to his worst fantasy day of the season when he tallied just 213 yards, no scores and two picks in Week 4. A lot has changed since then, but one of those things is also that Stafford is throwing far fewer touchdowns -- that donut was sandwiched in a four-game stretch in which he threw 10 TDs.

Running Back

LeGarrette Blount, NE vs. BAL

The Ravens held Le'Veon Bell to 70 scrimmage yards on 20 touches. Ezekiel Elliott saw 25 carries against them and failed to rush for more than 100 yards or find the end zone. Baltimore's top-ranked run defense has faced the stiffest of tests and has passed. Blount has been fantastic this season with a league-high 13 rushing touchdowns to go with four 100-yard efforts, but in a game that shapes up as more of a passing affair, he'll leave owners hoping he hits paydirt versus a defense that has allowed only one rushing score to a running back since Week 2.

Melvin Gordon, SD at CAR

The Panthers have not done many things well this season, but one thing they have consistently delivered on is protecting their turf from running backs. A defense that's allowed just four scores to running backs since Week 1 has not let a tailback find the end zone in six home games, and that includes limiting the likes of David Johnson, Carlos Hyde, Spencer Ware and Mark Ingram. That means Gordon, who has registered just two of his 12 touchdowns over the last five games, may leave his owners wanting more this week, whether the Panthers get Luke Kuechly back or not.

Jay Ajayi, MIA vs. AZ

Over the last four games, Ajayi has not topped 87 scrimmage yards and only found the end zone against the lowly 49ers defense (in a game that also saw him rush 18 times for just 45 yards). A bad Dolphins defense that has allowed a combined 62 points to San Fran and Baltimore the last two weeks is forcing Miami to throw a bit more than it would like and injuries to the offensive line have led to inconsistent running lanes for Ajayi. Factoring all that in, things are set up for the bullish back to keep trending down against an Arizona defense that has given up the second-fewest rushing yards and by far the fewest scrimmage yards to tailbacks (233 less than the next stingiest).

Theo Riddick, DET vs. CHI

The Bears have given up the second-fewest receptions (43) and receiving yards (309) and the fourth-fewest scrimmage yards (1,328), to running backs and are one of the three teams to limit Riddick this year to 58 or less yards and no scores. Moreover, Riddick hasn't seen double-digit rush attempts in more than a month and has been dealing with an ankle injury that entire time, which has hindered his ability to cut with the ball in his hands or separate from coverage in the way that has at times made him a matchup nightmare.

Wide Receiver

Rishard Matthews, TEN vs. DEN

Matthews has scored seven touchdowns in his last eight games and produced no less than 12 points in standard scoring in the four contests before Tennessee's Week 13 bye. Unfortunately, he's completely useless this week versus a Broncos defense that has relinquished a measly six receiving scores to wideouts and has the likes of All-Pros Aqib Talib and Chris Harris to blanket him.

Allen Robinson, JAC vs. MIN

As if things couldn't get worse for Robinson after tallying a pitiful 73 yards over the last three weeks, he now has to deal with Xavier Rhodes and the Vikings coming to town. No receiver this season has tallied any more than the 84 yards Dez Bryant managed last week against Minnesota, and that required a terrific deep ball grab to get there. Unless he becomes just the 10th wideout to find the end zone versus the Vikes, Robinson is due for a fourth straight stinker.

Terrelle Pryor, CLE vs. CIN

Pryor has been the brightest spot in a very dark season for the Browns, as he needs only 145 yards in four games to hit the 1,000-yard plateau in his first year as a full-time wide receiver. His path to that milestone is about to hit a road block, however, as he faces a Bengals defense that's allowed the fifth-fewest yards in the league to wideouts, and one which limited Pryor to a season-low 18 yards in Week 7. In that game both Cody Kessler and Kevin Hogan threw more than 10 passes. For the first time since Week 1, Pryor could have Robert Griffin under center. Unfortunately, Griffin's rust might not translate to much of an upgrade over the two rookies when the Bengals' secondary is glued to the 6-4 receiver.

Tight End

Delanie Walker, TEN vs. DEN

In their last six games, the Broncos' vaunted pass defense has allowed one tight end to surpass 43 yards, and it took Travis Kelce -- who's on pace for just shy of 1,100 this year -- a whopping 15 targets to generate 101 yards. Since Walker has seen double-digit targets just once in Tennessee's run-heavy attack, he'll likely have to find the end zone to cash in with a quality fantasy day. Unfortunately, Denver has also given up only two scores to the position all year.

Dwayne Allen, IND vs. HOU

Don't be too quick to jump on the "Dwayne Train" after the Colts' top tight end hauled in three touchdowns on Monday Night Football. Side note: pretty sure no one calls him "Dwayne Train." I just made that up. It probably won't catch on, but that would be pretty great. Getting back to the point, Allen (a.k.a. "Dwayne Train"), won't have anything come easy this week versus a Texans D that's given up the third-fewest yards and touchdowns to tight ends (431 and three, respectively). And those numbers are validated by their competition; Houston limited Walker, Kelce and Jared Cook to a combined 87 yards.