Exploiting the Matchups: Start Mixon It Up

Fight. Scrape. Claw.

Fantasy football is not for the faint of heart. It's for the grinders. The patient. The relentless.

Every week is a chance to make a better decision, to re-evaluate and reconstruct one's team. To take a chance. To stay the course. The chance element will always keep things interesting, for both the good and the bad. The chance can drive some to the white flag, but it is the vigilant owners that chance favors. As they say, after all, "chance favors the prepared mind."

As we approach the quarter mark of the NFL season, it's good to be reminded of this. I've been seeing snippets of that reminder since Week 1 and the point was hammered home for me at 4:00 AM Wednesday morning by my brother-in-law.

In my favorite home league, one I've referenced often, he's clawed his way to the only 3-0 record despite beginning the year behind the eight ball. In this very unique format we keep four players, and he entered with Odell Beckham, Mike Evans, Todd Gurley and Andrew Luck (a ridiculous core built over years of shrewd moves). Of course, Week 1 rolls around and Luck and Beckham are out with injuries. Then he has Evans, DeVante Parker and Jacquizz Rodgers on "bye" because of Hurricane Irma. After a nice debut from Gurley, he slots Adam Thielen in for Beckham and voila, he's at 1-0. He wasn't ready to buy an "improved" Saints defense and boy was he right. He survived all those absences AND an Allen Robinson torn ACL. After Week 1 he was quick to shuffle his depth by pouncing on Chris Carson and Alvin Kamara and adding Allen Hurns to replace Robinson. He didn't rest on his fortunate first victory, but re-evaluated his options and improved his roster. The reward for diligence and patience: his team scored the most points over the next two games. But did he rest on his laurels? No, instead he pissed me off at 4:00 AM on a Wednesday.

My brother-in-law assessed two of his weakest positions and addressed them at 2:35 AM when waivers processed and he could add free agents without giving up his waiver priority. And he snaked the ONE guy I had my eye on. Like many relentless owners out there, he went the extra mile by setting an alarm to get up and be the first to the freebies (self-reminder: I've got to talk to my poor sister about that).

Relentless, prepared S.O.B. that he is, his pick-ups were spot on. We play with six IDPs to keep things very, very interesting. After Monday night's wrecking of Arizona's offense I was convinced DeMarcus Lawrence is going to be a big deal this year. Shocked that he was not yet owned with two big Cowboys fans in our league, I planned to upgrade my defensive line spot from Calais Campbell. Unfortunately, I was not prepared enough to ensure this upgrade. I was exhausted and only awake at 4:00 in the morning to empty my bladder after a handful of beers helped get the writing juices flowing for this column. Naturally, being up and knowing waivers processed, I jumped on the computer to grab Lawrence. My lack of dedication will now cost me dearly when I face my brother-in-law in Week 5 and the league's sack leader single-handedly dismantles my Packers and torments my fantasy quarterback and myriad of fantasy Cheeseheads. Hopefully chance will get Aaron Rodgers' offensive tackles healthy in time, or perhaps better vigilance from me after Week 4 will have me prepared to maximize my own chances for success.

So consider it a lesson learned for me, and now for you too (if you've not skipped my overly detailed anecdote to get to the players already). Stay on top of every trend you can, don't be afraid to make moves, and position yourself as much as possible to influence chance.

As a quick aside before getting on with it: the points are back. You can emerge from your bomb shelter; the sky is not falling after all. After Weeks 1 and 2 saw teams average 20.2 points across the board, the league piled up 23.2 per team last week (743 total points). And from those tasty extra points only Marcedes Lewis' three touchdowns went completely and utterly to waste (I'm assuming, probably correctly).

As always, this is not intended as a traditional start/sit piece. Upgrades are players you wouldn't roll out every week while Downgrades are generally lineup mainstays but for whom you might want to consider an alternative based on elements of their opponent/situation. With that out of the way, let's get to it.

UPGRADE

Quarterback

Eli Manning, NYG at TB

The Buccaneers have allowed both Mike Glennon and Case Keenum to top 300 yards passing, with the pair combining for 670 yards and four touchdowns. The Giants seemed to solve their protection problems a bit last week by getting the ball out of Manning's hands quickly, and with Tampa Bay struggling to rush the passer (a league-low one sack), he may have even more time to carve up a dangerously thin back seven.

Trevor Siemian, DEN vs. OAK

Both Siemian and the Raiders defense got off to better starts before tanking mightily last Sunday. Siemian lit up the scoreboard with seven total touchdowns in the first two weeks, while the Oakland D didn't allow a passing score to Marcus Mariota in Week 1. Against the Redskins, however, the Raiders defense unveiled its true identity: they live and die by Khalil Mack's game-wrecking abilities. With Mack getting little help from his back seven or his offense, Kirk Cousins carved up Oakland for 365 yards and three scores. Heck, even Josh McCown burned Raiders corners for two scores the week prior. Siemian, after a dismal showing in Buffalo, should right the ship at home while his defense keeps Derek Carr and Co. in check.

Jay Cutler, MIA at NO (in London)

Given Cam Newton's injured wing and perpetual inaccuracy, the Saints' impersonation of a shutdown defense last week can be taken with a grain of salt. In Weeks 1 and 2 the Vikings and Patriots absolutely dissected them through the air. Cutler doesn't boast Sam Bradford's accuracy or Tom Brady's, well, everything, but he does have a cannon and a versatile group of weapons at his disposal. If he were an English delicacy this weekend he'd be a Shepherd's pie: hearty and filling, albeit lacking any special flavor.

Blake Bortles, JAC at NYJ

The Jaguars defense playing at its peak translates into the best version of Bortles as a passer. When Jacksonville can hold the opposing offense in check, their own O can lean on the ground game and Bortles can make safe throws, often off play-action, instead of having to play "hero" ball, which typically leads to forcing throws, badly missing targets, turning it over and general incompetence. Fortunately for Bortles, the Jets offense is not equipped to challenge a stacked Jaguars defense. When that happens, look for Bortles to build off a very impressive four-touchdown performance against a normally disciplined and opportunistic Ravens defense.

Running Back

Joe Mixon, CIN at CLE

Let the reign of Mixon begin. Under the direction of new offensive coordinator Bill Lazor, the Bengals finally awarded the bulk of backfield touches to easily their most physically talented offensive player not named A.J. Green. And the timing couldn't be better. After limiting an unprepared Le'Veon Bell in Week 1, the Browns proceeded to allow Ravens and Colts running backs to combine for 265 scrimmage yards and three touchdowns. Vastly more gifted than those tailbacks, Mixon is going to eat this week.

Chris Carson, SEA vs. IND

The Seattle backfield has been very unsettled since the days of Beast Mode, but considering that both Eddie Lacy and Thomas Rawls were active yet failed to see a single touch last week, the backfield currently belongs to Carson. Coming off strong performances that saw him tally at least 100 scrimmage yards or a touchdown in consecutive games, the rookie will look to get a streak going against a Colts defense that's allowed an average of 120 yards and a score per week to tailbacks, and that's despite facing a David Johnson-less Cardinals team Week 2.

Christian McCaffrey, Jonathan Stewart, CAR at NE

It's no surprise that even in a three-touchdown loss to the Saints that was a double-digit lead by halftime the "Thunder and Lightning" duo of Stewart and McCaffrey generated 178 scrimmage yards, with each topping 60. After all, New Orleans leads the league in yards allowed to running backs at 610 (with an average of 6.1 yards per touch). And wouldn't you know it, the Patriots are sitting right behind them in that category. Sure, the football genius that is Kareem Hunt accounted for nearly half of them, but looking closer it's hard to ignore the eye-popping (and league worst) 7.8 yards per touch they've allowed to tailbacks. Heck, even D'Onta Foreman piled up 90 yards on 10 touches last week. With Kelvin Benjamin (knee) hurting and Greg Olsen (foot) out, expect Carolina to lean hard on this pair.

LeGarrette Blount, PHI at LAC

It's hard to have confidence in any Eagles running back when three different players split significant work last week. Moreover, Blount went M.I.A. in Week 2 with just one touch at Kansas City, creating a ton of justifiable skepticism about his consistency. Fortunately for his owners, if there is going to be a matchup this year that dictates Philadelphia lean on him, this could be it. The Chargers feature the league's leading tackler, fly-to-the-football speedster Jatavis Brown. His nose for the ball, however, has not limited big backs, who have taken advantage of his diminutive 5-11, 221-pound frame. In fact, the Chargers defense as a whole is tiny, featuring just three 300-pounders with their biggest defensive tackle tipping the scales at 311 pounds. C.J. Anderson, Jay Ajayi and Kareem Hunt all rushed for at least 80 yards, and the 250-pound Blount is about to keep that streak going against a defense that's allowed the most rushing yards in the league to running backs (411 on 78 carries).

Wide Receiver

DeVante Parker, Jarvis Landry, MIA at NO

Ignore what happened in Carolina. The Saints pass defense is still inept, and while Cutler is no world-beater, his live arm is far better than Cam Newton's banged up, scattershot one. In two games Cutler has thrown 77 passes resulting in 450 yards. Of those throws, 45 went in the directions of either Parker or Landry, with the duo accounting for 287 of his yards. Parker will stretch the field the way Stefon Diggs, Adam Thielen and Chris Hogan did against New Orleans in Weeks 1 and 2 when they combined for nine catches of at least 15 yards and three touchdowns. Meanwhile, Landry will torment linebackers and nickel corners underneath much in the same way Christian McCaffrey did en route to nine catches for 101 yards last week.

Emmanuel Sanders, DEN vs. OAK

See Siemian, Trevor. Facing a combination of inexperience and incompetence in the Oakland secondary, Sanders should continue thriving after a quiet Week 1. In the past two contests only Antonio Brown, Jarvis Landry and Doug Baldwin have seen more than the 23 targets Sanders has piled up. And Sanders has as many touchdowns in that window as that trio combined. Translation: good luck finding a better flex play.

Sterling Shepard, NYG at TB

It sure is good to be a wide receiver facing the Buccaneers. Though two games is a small sample size, playing against Mike Glennon and the "Bad News Bears" receiving corps and Case Keenum sure says something about Tampa Bay's inability to deter throws to, or catches by, wideouts. After Chicago's rag-tag group hauled in 17 for 204 and a touchdown, Stefon Diggs and Co. thrashed the Buccaneer secondary for 282 yards and three scores on 16 grabs. Shepard, who's averaging just over seven targets per game, is the underneath weapon that Tampa Bay just won't be able to handle with linebackers Lavonte David (ankle) and Kwon Alexander (hamstring) both ailing.

Eric Decker, TEN at HOU

Coming off a season derailed by multiple injuries and surgeries, Decker has yet to do anything significant as he continues to work his way back into peak condition while also getting accustomed to a new offense and quarterback. That next step could be coming this week, however. With Corey Davis still sidelined by a hamstring injury and Rishard Matthews sure to draw most of the attention from Jonathan Joseph and Kareem Jackson, Decker could play a pivotal role in this divisional showdown. Marcus Mariota surely is no Tom Brady, but the Texans depleted secondary just allowed 247 yards and four touchdowns to Patriots wideouts, so at least Mariota knows how to attack them like Brady.

Marqise Lee, JAC at NYJ

No team has given up more touchdowns to wide receivers than the six the Jets have relinquished (including one rushing). Lee has yet to find the end zone like teammate Allen Hurns has since Jacksonville's No. 1 receiver, Allen Robinson, went down in Week 1 with a torn ACL, but given his huge 26.1 percent target share as the team's new top dog, it's only a matter of time. At a minimum, Lee is a safe source of yards given the volume, and he should not be a victim of game flow. Even while the Jags shellacked Baltimore last week, Lee turned in 65 yards on seven targets.

Tight End

Cameron Brate, TB vs. NYG

Yeah, yeah I know; not spraining any muscles here. The Giants defense is a playground for tight ends and that's been apparent since last season when they allowed the fourth most yards to the position. So far this year every No. 1 tight end to face them has produced at least five catches, 40+ yards and found the end zone. Brate, fresh off a 2016 campaign in which he tied for the touchdown lead among tight ends, cashed in his first score last week. He remains Tampa Bay's top tight end for now and a trusted red zone weapon for Jameis Winston, who will certainly be calling his number this week against one of the league's worst assortments of linebackers.

Jesse James, PIT at BAL

The Steelers, outside of two red zone scores in Week 1, have yet to take advantage of the mismatch James' 6-7, 261-pound frame presents. But that could all change this week. After completely demolishing the Bengals offense in the season opener the Ravens quietly gave up 108 yards and a score to Browns tight ends and then very loudly were blasted by the Jags and Marcedes Lewis, allowing the veteran who had yet to log a catch this year to own them for 62 yards and three touchdowns on four grabs. At 6-foot-6, Lewis and James share that power forward size, and now it's the Steelers' turn to take advantage of a defense that's allowed three tight ends in two weeks to compile at least 60 yards or a touchdown.

Ryan Griffin, HOU vs. TEN

The jury is very much out on whether or not Tennessee's defense is equipped to erase tight end production, but early returns are encouraging for fantasy owners in stream mode at the position. They allowed Jared Cook to top 50 yards in Week 1 while snagging all five of his targets and are fresh off giving up 125 yards and a score to Seahawks tight ends. Sure, Griffin is not going to draw comparisons to the elite athleticism that Cook and Jimmy Graham bring to the position, but Griffin can certainly be a steady security blanket in the middle of the field for rookie Deshaun Watson, an expert at extending the play and checking down. Moreover, Griffin very quietly caught 50 balls last year while splitting snaps with C.J. Fiedorowicz, who happens to be on IR with a lingering concussion. Coming off a 5/61/1 line, Griffin is poised to stay hot.

DOWNGRADE

Quarterback

Derek Carr, OAK at DEN

The Broncos defense has been inconsistent defending the pass, but one thing's for sure: they will be ready to battle a division rival at home. Coming off an absolute dud performance, Carr is facing a major uphill climb to bounce back. In three meetings with the Broncos since Oakland acquired Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree as his top two weapons, Carr has twice thrown for under 200 yards and never thrown for multiple touchdowns while eclipsing that yardage barrier. Von Miller, Aqib Talib and Chris Harris will see to it that trend continues.

Matthew Stafford, DET at MIN

The Lions will not be able to run on Minnesota's beastly front seven. When they can't, Stafford will dink and dunk his way to a predictably mediocre stat line, just like he did last week (264 yards, one touchdown, 5.9 YPA) and most of last season (nine games of less than 300 yards and one or no scores). The Vikings defense is too loaded (Xavier Rhodes, Harrison Smith, Everson Griffin, etc.) and Stafford does not have enough reliable receiving talent outside of Golden Tate.

Kirk Cousins, WAS at KC

Cousins may have lit up the Raiders, but there's little hope of him going into Arrowhead and duplicating or even coming close to such an effort. The Chiefs have gone on the road and held Tom Brady and Philip Rivers to under 300 yards each while posting a 0-to-3 TD-to-INT ratio. Even without Eric Berry, their ferocious pass rush led by Justin Houston and emerging star Chris Jones causes major headaches for opposing quarterbacks. With Marcus Peters in the back end locking down a side of the field, the opportunities to avoid pressure and/or find an open man will be too far and few between.

Running Back

Marshawn Lynch, OAK at DEN

The Broncos boast the best run defense in football and have proven it by effectively shutting down some of the game's elite runners. Melvin Gordon (18-for-54), Ezekiel Elliott (9-for-8) and LeSean McCoy (14-for-21) struggled to find breathing room en route to a pathetic 41 carries for 83 combined yards (2.0 YPC). Since Lynch is not used in the passing game the way this trio is, he'll either need volume or a touchdown in this one to provide quality numbers. Translation: starting Lynch is only recommended for the supremely desperate.

Ty Montgomery, GB vs. CHI

The Bears have faced the likes of Le'Veon Bell, Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman and yet they've only allowed 3.5 YPC to tailbacks and given up just 88 yards receiving to the position. Chicago defensive coordinator Vic Fangio may not have elite personnel resembling your fathers' "Monsters of the Midway" defenses, but he has his team plugging running lanes and flying to the football in space. Behind a Packers offensive line that likely will be rolling with its sixth and seventh-best offensive tackles, Montgomery will continue his struggle to find any running room (his 3.0 YPC is tied for the second worst among runners with at least 40 carries). Moreover, given the short week it would not be a surprise to see the Packers finally work their rookie tailbacks more heavily into the rotation to keep their workhorse fresh for the fourth quarter.

Mike Gillislee, NE vs. CAR

The trio of Carlos Hyde, LeSean McCoy and Mark Ingram combined for only 110 rushing yards at a cumulative 3.1 YPC against the stout Carolina front seven led by Luke Kuechly, Thomas Davis and Kawann Short. Coincidentally, that awful YPC mark is nearly identical to Gillislee's average on his 45 attempts. New England's line has struggled to open holes, but Gillislee also has yet to capitalize on any opportunities between the 20s. Chances to hit paydirt will always exists in this offense, but against one of the top run defenses in football, this formerly efficient runner is in line for far more bust than boom.

Wide Receiver

Amari Cooper, Michael Crabtree, OAK at DEN

Six freaking yards. Yes, Josh Norman is a good corner. Among the upper echelon in the league even. But Cooper is supposed to be a star wideout who can overcome such coverage. Instead, he's developed this pesky little penchant to disappear for long stretches of the season. Heading to Denver to face the "No Fly Zone" coverage of Aqib Talib and Chris Harris, it seems likely he's in the midst of ghosting his fantasy owners yet again. Crabtree is typically a bit more consistent because of his chemistry with Carr in the red zone, but even he has historically vanished against the Broncos. In two years donning silver and black, Crabtree has 147 yards and no scores in four meetings with Denver, with 54 yards representing his peak performance.

T.Y. Hilton, IND at SEA

Let's see Hilton and Jacoby Brissett make things looks so easy visiting Seattle and "The Legion of Boom." Just as quickly as the real T.Y. Hilton showed up versus Cleveland at home, he'll vanish once again. The Seahawks play with an extra gear at home and their physicality will prevent this duo from playing simple pitch and catch this week.

Pierre Garcon, SF at AZ

In two games not facing a star-studded secondary, Garcon has piled up 20 targets, 13 catches and 223 yards. When he had to go up against Seattle, he predictably managed just 26 yards on five looks. Patrick Peterson is fresh off holding Dez Bryant and T.Y. Hilton to a combined 61 yards. Unless Garcon can drag multiple defenders into the end zone a la Bryant, count on him reverting to a state of mediocrity in this divisional throwdown.

Tight End

Vernon Davis, Jordan Reed, WAS at KC

The Chiefs are a fluky 53-yard catch-and-run by Zach Ertz away from having limited the trio of Rob Gronkowski, Ertz and Hunter Henry to 77 yards and no scores. The problem with being a skilled tight end facing the Chiefs is that besides their excellent coverage in the back seven, tight ends are often called upon to spend more time helping with pass protection. Bookend stud pass rushers Justin Houston and Dee Ford simply demand the extra attention. Washington may be one of the more tight end friendly offenses, but with or without Reed healthy (he's day-to-day with a chest injury as of this writing), neither is worth chancing this week.

Jack Doyle, IND at SEA

Can't trust him. Simply can't. One week Doyle looks like a clear favorite of Jacoby Brissett's, garnering and hauling in all eight targets for 79 yards. The next, he's collecting just two passes against a defense that typically struggles to cover tight ends and compounding matters by fumbling one away. Doyle is talented enough to be owned, but not enough to be trusted in an awful road matchup wherein he'll need to best the likes of All-Pros Earl Thomas and Bobby Wagner to produce.