Exploiting the Matchups: Week 10 Start/Sit and Fantasy Streamers

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Published on November 7, 2024

Unless otherwise noted, references to 'fantasy points' are based on PPR scoring with 25/10 yards per point and 4/6 points for TDs. Start % comes from Yahoo, as of Wednesday night / Thursday morning.

Start/Upgrade 👍

Quarterbacks 👍

Brock Purdy (at TB) — 42% started

Start Over — Kyler Murray (vs. NYJ), Patrick Mahomes (vs. DEN), Baker Mayfield (vs. SF)

There's a case to put Purdy as high as fifth in the QB rankings* this week, behind dual-threats Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts and Jayden Daniels. The 49ers signal-caller has also run quite a bit this year, with his 5.0 carries for 26.3 yards and 0.38 TDs per game making up for a slight dip in efficiency relative to last year. Purdy has still been efficient, of course, ranking third in YPA (8.7), second in NY/A (7.90) and seventh in EPA per dropback (0.12).

Tampa Bay's defense, meanwhile, has become an embarrassing sieve, allowing a league-high 23.6 fantasy points per game to QBs, including three straight weeks of at least 292 total yards and three TDs. You may have heard about Purdy's struggles against man coverage this season, but that shouldn't matter much this Sunday against a Bucs defense that plays zone a league-high 85.7 percent of the time. As if that's not enough of a matchup nightmare for Tampa Bay already, there's some chance the Niners get RB Christian McCaffrey (Achilles) and/or WR Jauan Jennings (hip) back in action following their

Start/Upgrade 👍

Quarterbacks 👍

Brock Purdy (at TB) — 42% started

Start Over — Kyler Murray (vs. NYJ), Patrick Mahomes (vs. DEN), Baker Mayfield (vs. SF)

*For me, it's a toss-up between Purdy and Joe Burrow at No. 5. After those two, there's a sizable drop off and it's hard to differentiate between third-tier options like Murray, Mahomes, Darnold, Mayfield and Cousins.

Other Good Matchups: Jalen Hurts (at DAL), Brock Purdy (at TB), Sam Darnold (at JAX), Kirk Cousins (at NO),Caleb Williams (vs. NE), Daniel Jones (at CAR)

Running Backs 👍

D'Andre Swift (vs. NE) — 77% started

Start Over — David Montgomery (at HOU), Chase Brown (at BAL), Rhamondre Stevenson (at CHI)

Swift is coming off his worst fantasy performance since Week 3, but even then he managed 14.2 PPR points and 82 total yards in the 29-9 loss at Arizona this past Sunday. He had at least 18.9 points and 117 yards in four straight games before that, and he now has a good chance to return to that scoring range with the Bears favored by six over a team that's allowed 4.5 YPC and the sixth most fantasy points to RBs. Injuries to both of Chicago's starting offensive tackles somewhat dampen Swift's efficiency outlook, but not enough to take him out of fantasy lineups when he's playing at home against one of the worst teams in the NFL.

Tyrone Tracy (at CAR) — 57% started

Start Over — Chuba Hubbard (vs. NYG), Najee Harris (at WAS), Rhamondre Stevenson (at CHI)

In three games since Devin Singletary returned from a groin injury, Tracy has taken 65 percent of New York's snaps, 42 of the 57 RB carries (73.7 percent) and seven of 13 RB targets (53.8 percent), relegating Singletary to mere handcuff status. Each of those games came against teams (PHI, PIT, WAS) that have played good defense recently and are well on their way to playoff spots, whereas Week 10 brings a matchup with the lowly Panthers in Munich. No team has allowed more PPR points to running backs, with Carolina yielding 13 RB performances of at least a dozen PPR points, including six with 20-plus. Only the Cowboys have been worse in terms of EPA/carry (0.02) and opponent success rate (45.9 percent) on designed run plays.

Other Good Matchups: Saquon Barkley (at DAL), Bijan Robinson & Tyler Allgeier (at NO), Aaron Jones (at JAX), Chuba Hubbard (vs. NYG), Kareem Hunt (vs. DEN)

Wide Receivers 👍

Zay Flowers (vs. CIN) — 83% started

Start Over — DJ Moore (vs. NE), DeAndre Hopkins (vs. DEN), Darnell Mooney (at NO)

Flowers topped 100 yards four of the past five games, including Week 5 at Cincinnati, with the only exception being a Week 7 contest at Tampa Bay in which he injured his ankle late in the first quarter and didn't get another target or carry the rest of the game. He's still getting some of the quick/schemed targets that lead to easy PPR points, but those passes no longer dominate his profile, with Flowers getting 59 percent of his targets 10-plus yards downfield over the past five weeks (and going 16-of-23 for 335 yards and two TDs). While the Bengals generally have been about average defending wide receivers, the shootout potential for Thursday's game (52.5 O/U) elevates Flowers' chances to keep his hot streak going.

Tank Dell (vs. DET) — 67% started

Start Over — Khalil Shakir (at IND), Jaylen Waddle (at LAR), Josh Downs (vs. BUF)

Dell is coming off his first big game of the season, against a tough Jets defense no less, and he's now in an ideal spot for volume against a Lions defense that's allowed the most targets, catches and yards to wide receivers this season. Detroit's defensive efficiency stats are much better than the volume stuff, but the wealth of production (third most PPR points allowed) shouldn't be written off as a fluke, as the combination of an elite offense and excellent run defense continues to put opponents in position to pile up pass attempts. The Texans have become a more run-oriented offense than nearly anyone expected, but they may deviate this week even early in the game, rather than trying to repeatedly run into the teeth of the lion..

Other Good Matchups: Justin Jefferson & Jordan Addison (at JAX), Tyreek Hill & Jaylen Waddle (at LAR), Ja'Marr Chase & Andrei Iosivas (at BAL), Davante Adams (at ARZ), Deebo Samuel,, Jauan Jennings & Ricky Pearsall (at TB), Jameson Williams (vs. HOU) Darnell Mooney & Ray-Ray McCloud (at NO),

Tight Ends 👍

Dalton Kincaid (at IND) — 77% started

Start Over — Sam LaPorta (at HOU), Mark Andrews (vs. CIN), T.J. Hockenson (at JAX)

Kincaid drew six or more targets each of the past six weeks, including a season-high 10 in a 30-27 win over the Dolphins on Sunday. His efficiency has been disappointing, but some of that looks like bad luck with Kincaid accounting for an unusually large portion of Josh Allen's limited misfires. Kincaid should improve his per-target production this Sunday, playing indoors against a subpar Colts defense that's allowed five TEs to top 50 yards in the past seven games, yielding season highs for both yardage and fantasy points to Cole Kmet (10-97-1), Pat Freiermuth (5-57-1), Jonnu Smith (7-96-1), Dalton Schultz (4-52-0) and Josh Oliver (5-58-1). Also note that Buffalo leads the league in pass rate over expectation (+5.5%) the past three weeks, after ranking 19th over the first six weeks of the season (-4.7%).

Other Good Matchups: George Kittle (at TB), T.J. Hockenson (at JAX), Jonnu Smith (at LAR), Theo Johnson (at CAR)

Sit/Downgrade 👎

Quarterbacks 👎

C.J. Stroud (vs. DET) — 61% started

Start Instead — Kirk Cousins (at NO), Sam Darnold (at JAX), Matthew Stafford (vs. MIA)

It's hard to gauge Stroud's value precisely without knowing if WR Nico Collins (hamstring) will play, but there's reason to worry about efficiency even if the QB gets his top receiver back this Sunday. The Lions have allowed the 19th most fantasy points to QBs (16.4 per game) on the second most pass attempts (38.3), with a league-best 6:11 TD:INT ratio. The yardage has gone up and the sacks down since Aidan Hutchinson's season-ending injury, but the Lions have still played tough defense overall, ranking fifth in EPA/dropback (-0.18) and allowing just two passing TDs (compared to four INTs) in three games since the injury. This Lions-Texans game has some shootout potential given the offensive talent, but both teams have also played well on defense, especially Detroit.

Other Tough Matchups: Jayden Daniels (vs. PIT), Russell Wilson (at WAS), Drake Maye (at CHI), Cooper Rush (vs. PHI)

Running Backs 👎

Tony Pollard (at LAC) — 60% started

Start Instead — Tyrone Tracy (at CAR), Chuba Hubbard (vs. NYG), Chase Brown (at BAL)

Pollard's combination of workload and talent makes him impossible to bench in deep leagues, but there's an argument for holding him out of lineups in shallower formats with the Titans playing on the road as 7.5-point underdogs against a team that's allowing the second fewest points to running backs. No RB has reached 20 PPR points against the Chargers this year, as they've allowed just two TDs to the position while ranking fifth in EPA per carry (-0.20) on designed runs, 10th in success rate (36.5%) and 13th in YPC (4.3). In addition to the tough matchup, there's some chance Tyjae Spears (hamstring) makes it back this week, which presumably would take a chunk out of Pollard's workload. Adding it all up, Pollard is more of a mid-range/high-risk RB2 rather than the high-end RB2 we've seen of late.

Rachaad White (vs. SF) — 55% started

Start Instead — Najee Harris (at WAS), Tony Pollard (at LAC), Rico Dowdle (vs. PHI)

White's recent surge of production is about as fluky as it gets, even though there's a genuine aspect of the Bucs featuring their running backs more prominently due to injuries at wide receiver. The problem is that Bucky Irving has actually taken a few more touches than White in the three weeks since White missed a game with a foot injury, with Sean Tucker also chipping in off the bench (3-6 touches on 7-15 snaps per week). White nonetheless scored four TDs over the past three weeks, but it was actually Irving who got both carries from inside the 5-yard line in that time, while White's scores all came from 23, 18, 11 and 7 yards out.

That'd be fine if we were talking about him being the Jahmyr Gibbs to Bucky Irving's David Montgomery, but even the biggest Rachaad White optimist will acknowledge that he's not the type of explosive player that will continue piling up TDs far from the goal line.White got just six touches to Irving's 10 in a loss to the Chiefs on Monday, and both of them now face a tough matchup Week 10, hosting the defending NFC champions coming out of a bye week.

Other Tough Matchups: Joe Mixon (vs. DET), Javonte Williams (at KC), Rico Dowdle (vs. PHI), Tank Bigsby & Travis Etienne (vs. MIN)

Wide Receivers 👎

Marvin Harrison (vs. NYJ) — 81% started

Start Instead — Zay Flowers (vs. CIN), Tank Dell (vs. DET), DeAndre Hopkins (vs. DEN)

There have been glimpses of brilliance throughout Harrison's rookie season, but he's also left some plays on the field, struggling to make tough, contested catches that are necessary to put up big numbers if you're a WR that isn't a major YAC threat. He's unlikely to thrive this Sunday, facing a Jets defense that's allowing a league-low 25.0 PPR points per game to wide receivers. The lack of production is partially because they have excellent cornerbacks who are good in coverage (league-best 51.4 percent catch rate on WR targets) and partially because they prefer being penalized to allowing catches (20 penalties against Jets DBs, second most to Detroit's 23). Unfortunately, Harrison won't get fantasy points for any yardage he earns for his team via penalties.

Ladd McConkey (vs. TEN) — 47% started

Start Instead — George Pickens (at WAS), Khalil Shakir (at IND), Josh Downs (vs. BUF)

McConkey is another guy whose recent volume (and production) makes him a must-start in deep leagues. For shallower formats, managers should consider the likelihood of a mediocre stat line, with the Chargers favored by 7.5 points over a team that's allowed the fourth fewest PPR points to wide receivers and the third lowest YPT (6.4) on targets to WRs aligned in the slot (shoutout to underrated Titans slot corner Roger McCreary). In other words, this isn't a good matchup for McConkey in terms of either the volume or efficiency projection. For shallow-ish leagues, that may outweigh the reality that he's now The Man in a solid passing offense.

Other Tough Matchups: CeeDee Lamb & Jalen Tolbert (vs. PHI), Michael Pittman & Alec Pierce (vs. BUF), Courtland Sutton (at KC), Michael Wilson (vs. NYJ), DeMario Douglas (at CHI),

Tight Ends 👎

Jake Ferguson (vs. PHI) — 60% started

Start Instead — Cade Otton (vs. SF), Dalton Kincaid (at IND), Evan Engram (vs. MIN)

Ferguson may get a target-share boost while playing with backup QB Cooper Rush — possibly in an offense missing CeeDee Lamb (shoulder) — but expectations for efficiency should be low, in part because Rush is worse than Dak Prescott and the Dallas offense isn't likely to have much luck (which also eats into the volume benefit from a potential Lamb absence). The other factor is that Philadelphia has been playing excellent defense, allowing four offensive TDs in four games since a Week 5 bye. Only three teams have allowed fewer PPR points per game to tight ends, with the Eagles thus far limiting the position to a 67.3 percent catch rate (5th), 6.3 YPT (9th) and zero touchdowns (t-1st) despite facing solid receiving threats like Tucker Kraft, Kyle Pitts, Cade Otton, David Njoku and Mike Gesicki.