Exploiting the Matchups: Week 14 Start/Sit

Last year at the start of the fantasy playoffs (or the critical win-and-you're-in final regular season game, depending on your league), I advised, as I often have in the past, to simply KISS for that playoff run.

Keep. It. Simple. Stupid.

Mike McCarthy forgot that, and look where it got him. Actually, McCarthy is a bit of an extreme case. He kept it far too simple for far too long. As in, his offense lacked any bells and whistles and relied on far too simple of route concepts, depending on Aaron Rodgers to make magic happen with a receiver corps getting no creative assists from its play caller.

He kept it too simple, too stupidly.

Where McCarthy should have actually been keeping it simple was in creating more easy throws for Rodgers (duh) and feeding the hell out of Aaron Jones the second he stepped back on the field in Week 3.

I tweeted this glorious tidbit of karmic retribution last night when I discovered it, but McCarthy's firing was not just a birthday present to Rodgers, who turned 35 on Sunday, but also to Jones, who shares the same birthday as the elder Aaron, just 11 years apart. Given how McCarthy held them both back this year, that coincidence is utterly mind-blowing.

Digressing back to the point, keeping it simple this time of year means following opportunity in instances where talent is either unavailable or up against extreme obstacles. Fortunately, this year with the rules limitations placed on defenses, there are few extremely good ones. The Bears, Cowboys, Jaguars, Ravens and Vikings are generally good on all three levels, but as we've seen this year, any of these defenses can still have an off day.

So, don't let them scare you away from star talent, and wherever possible with the tough decisions, opt for the clearer path to touches. Keeping it simple is about seeking volume and creating the highest weekly floor. Chase yards, not touchdowns (when sensible), and leave the rest up to the fantasy fates.

And above all else, enjoy the ride no matter how short, long, sweet or painful. It took a lot of effort and/or luck to get here, so don't take it for granted.

Note: This column is not intended to be a traditional "Start/Sit" piece. My goal is to provide perspective you may not have considered and help make those tough decisions easier – or make you rethink those "no-brainer" choices.

Upgrades are not necessarily weekly starters (outside of the top 20 RB/WR, top 10 QB/TE) but are set to boost their production. Downgrades are worth benching or, for some bigger names, should be held to lower expectations for this week.

UPGRADE

Aaron Rodgers, GB vs. ATL

"This house is clean." For anyone too young to immediately recognize that quote from the 1980's classic horror flick Poltergeist, go now and binge-watch the trilogy. Then remember that the Packers have finally exorcised what's been haunting them for years. With Mike McCarthy gone, Rodgers will throw multiple touchdowns AND crack 300 yards for the first time since mid-October. Before a four-game losing streak in which teams have opted to run it down Atlanta's throat, the Falcons had allowed seven straight passers to go for at least 300 yards or multiple scores. A "freed" Rodgers can certainly do both without the specter of McCarthy holding him back.

Josh Allen, BUF vs. NYJ

With even fewer weapons just four weeks ago, Matt Barkley – as in six-year journeyman with just as many career starts as Allen – picked apart the Jets for 232 yards and two scores at 9.3 YPA. That was the first game of Barkley's career with multiple touchdowns and no interceptions, and he had just been signed by the Bills less than two weeks before going under center. Allen, coming off consecutive games with at least 160 yards passing, multiple touchdowns and at least 99 rushing yards, figures to have no trouble keeping up his poor-man's Cam Newton impression.

Jameis Winston, TB vs. NO

The Saints have certainly improved defending the pass since the Buccaneers and Ryan Fitzpatrick blindsided them in Week 1. But that doesn't mean Winston is not about to be a fantasy playoffs hero. New Orleans just allowed Dak Prescott to complete 24 of 28 attempts for 8.9 YPA despite pressuring him enough to notch seven sacks. The week before Matt Ryan pitched it for 377 yards and two scores while taking six sacks himself. Winston, meanwhile, has been playing like his job depends on it (because, duh, it does). His extra sharp, suddenly turnover-free play has included a 72.6 percent completion rate over his past 10 quarters of action with 760 yards and six touchdowns.

Nick Mullens, SF vs. DEN

Let's face it. The 49ers are going to be playing from behind and likely from the opening quarter. For deeper leagues or two-quarterback and superflex formats, Mullens presents a steady floor. In his four starts, he's yet to throw for less than 221 yards and is coming off a monster 414 yards and two scores. With the Broncos missing far and away their best cover corner in Chris Harris Jr., who broke his fibula last week, the unheralded San Fran signal caller should face minimal resistance to at least post quality yardage yet again, particularly with Dante Pettis and Jeff Wilson providing some explosive options to complement the ever-steady George Kittle.

RB

Jeff Wilson, SF vs. DEN

When exceptional talent is unavailable (which, of course, there's little to discover in December), volume matters this time of year. Wilson will be the case in point this week as he steps into a featured role for the second straight week with Matt Breida (ankle) hurt and officially ruled out. Wilson lost eight touches to him last Sunday and still garnered 23 for 134 scrimmage yards, showcasing his chops as a dual threat (61 rushing, 73 receiving yards). The Broncos have been hot lately riding a three-game win streak, but that doesn't mean they've shut down RBs. In those games, the top tailback has posted at least 95 scrimmage yards, with the latest, Joe Mixon, gouging them for 82 on only 12 rush attempts.

Justin Jackson, LAC vs. CIN

This will depend on whether Melvin Gordon (knee) suits up in Week 14. If he doesn't, Jackson could again see a huge boost. Facing a Steelers defense that has allowed the 10th-fewest rushing yards to opposing tailbacks, he ran loose for 63 yards in the final quarter and a half of action on just eight carries (7.9 YPC), including a beautiful slashing 18-yard scoring strike. Northwestern's all-time leading rusher sparks a natural comparison with a similar size and running style to another rookie back who happens to be coming off an evisceration of the Bengals. While Jackson is certainly far from warranting the confidence of the league's fourth-leading rusher, Phillip Lindsay, it's impossible to ignore that Jackson has earned a timeshare with Austin Ekeler – as long as Gordon sits -- versus a defense that's allowed the most touchdowns (19) and scrimmage yards (179.3 per game) to running backs.

Stevan Ridley, PIT at OAK

With the Steelers starting a critical four-game stretch minus James Conner (ankle), don't be surprised when they rely much more heavily on their eight-year veteran instead of rookie H-back Jaylen Samuels for ground-game production. Samuels had more receptions (202) than rush attempts (181) in his four-year career at North Carolina State, while Ridley has over 3,000 career yards, which included a 17/80/1 line for Pittsburgh in Week 17 last year. Considering no defense has allowed more rushing yards to opposing tailbacks than the 130.5 the Raiders have given up with little resistance (5.1 YPC), Ridley could become an unsung playoff hero.

Kenyan Drake, MIA vs. NE

He may not always get you double-digit touches, but Drake sure has displayed a good nose for the end zone of late. He has scored three times the past two weeks and six times in his last six games. Moreover, Drake has displayed good versatility this year as a weapon out of the backfield, catching 40 passes and four touchdowns. The Dolphins are almost certainly going to fall behind, and when they do, Drake should find himself more involved than Frank Gore in the passing game against a Patriots D that's surrendered the ninth-most receiving yards to tailbacks.

WR

Zay Jones, BUF vs. NYJ

The Jets have struggled to defend wide receivers all year, having allowed the third-most catches (174) and fourth-most yards (189.4 per game), but permitting a Titans group that's "Corey Davis or bust" to rack up 204 yards truly shows how bad that stank is. Making matters worse, Davis himself only contributed 42 of those yards, while Taywan Taylor logged his first career 100-yard game on only three catches. Buffalo's wide receiver corps, of course, is as bad as they come, and Jones, also in his sophomore campaign, is still seeking his first 100-yard day. If the first meeting with the Jets was any indication, however, they're the squad that's itching to give it to him. After piling up career highs with eight catches and 93 yards just four weeks ago against Gang Green, and coming off his first two-touchdown effort, Jones is finally starting to display the ability that made him the 37th overall selection in the 2017 draft.

Adam Humphries & Chris Godwin, TB vs. NO

Just because it's obvious doesn't make it any less sensible or true. Humphries and Godwin are tied for the team lead in touchdown catches for the Buccaneers with five apiece, and both wideouts have benefited in recent weeks from the attention paid to Mike Evans, the team's far-and-away No. 1 target. Godwin has worked opposite him for 101 snaps the past two weeks, with DeSean Jackson (thumb) missing action. Minus Jackson altogether last week, Godwin thrived with his first game of the season with 100-plus yards and a score. The last time he did that came in a Week 17 upset of the Saints to close out 2017. Humphries, meanwhile, has scored in three straight with five TDs in the last five contests. A savvy slot receiver and favorite target of Jameis Winston, the Clemson product will look to continue thriving against a defense that's allowed 221.0 yards per game to receivers, easily the most generous mark in the league.

Dante Pettis, SF vs. DEN

No Chris Harris Jr. equals no problem for the 49ers' dynamic second-round draft pick. Pettis has really emerged the past two weeks for San Fran. He's been forced into the No. 1 wideout role due to injuries, and he's responded by racking up 14.7 YPT and three scores in that timeframe. With the Broncos missing their best cornerback in veteran Pro Bowler Harris, look for the Niners' rookie to keep the good times rolling. After all, in the past two weeks, the rest of the Denver secondary has allowed JuJu Smith-Schuster and Tyler Boyd to amass a combined 19 catches and 286 yards.

Courtland Sutton, DEN at SF

See Wilson, Jeff. Running back isn't the only position that can thrive on volume this time of year. The Broncos traded Demaryius Thomas to pave the way for Sutton to see more balls coming his way, and they really have no choice but to feed him after Emmanuel Sanders tore his Achilles in practice. Sutton is now Denver's No. 1 receiver, and in a matchup with a 49ers secondary that's allowed the most touchdowns to wide receivers (19), including four just last week, don't be surprised to see an encore of the rookie's best performance to date. He posted highs in catches (four) and yards (85) to go with a score versus Cincinnati. Sure, Richard Sherman is cause for some concern, but the reality is that Sutton's game is about the big play. He's caught just 47.5 percent of his targets this year but has managed at least 50 yards or a score in eight of his last nine games largely because he's posting 19.9 yards per catch, the best mark in the league. If he sees a lot of Sherman coverage, Sutton only needs to beat him a few times on what could be many targets.

Anthony Miller, CHI vs. LAR

Miller caught just one pass for one yard last week, but with it, he did what he does best (apparently) – find the end zone. The score, which allowed Chicago to tie the game on the last play of regulation, was Miller's team-leading sixth of the year and third in the last four games. While Allen Robinson is busy grappling with Aqib Talib outside the numbers, Miller, who's seen 40 of his 50 targets from the slot and is tied for third in the league in touchdowns on routes run from the slot (five), will feast on a Rams secondary that, according to Pro Football Focus, has allowed 490 yards in slot coverage and seven scores (the second most in the league).

TE

Ian Thomas, CAR at CLE

Even playoff fantasy teams might be feeling desperate at the ultra-thin tight end position, particularly for anyone who entrusted their positional fate to the deteriorating Greg Olsen. If that's the case, Olsen's rookie heir apparent, Thomas, is a good place to look for help. The 260-pounder is an explosive athlete who, despite 16 catches on the season, could carve out a surprise role now that Olsen is on injured reserve with a ruptured plantar fascia. Coming off a five-catch, 46-yard performance (both season highs), Thomas should stay heavily involved against a Browns defense that's given up the most catches (75) to tight ends.

Vance McDonald, PIT at OAK

For those who can't either pick up or play Jaylen Samuels in the tight end spot, here's the next best option in the same offense. And guess what? He's an actual tight end -- one whom Ben Roethlisberger has targeted 18 times in the past three games. McDonald has not been generating the yards his combination of size and speed (267 pounds, sub 4.7-speed) should be racking up, but against a Raiders defense that's allowed more yards to tight ends than every team except Kansas City, the veteran has a fine chance to post his best output since a 68-yard day in mid-October.

DOWNGRADE

Carson Wentz, PHI at DAL

Check the tape. The Dallas pass defense is clearly no joke, having derailed Drew Brees' MVP-caliber campaign by essentially erasing the New Orleans passing attack last week. So, although the Cowboys did start their four-game win streak by giving up 360 yards and two scores to Wentz in Philly, they've proven more than capable of dramatically improving on that effort in Round 2 with the Eagles. After all, since that meeting, Wentz has more interceptions (four) than touchdowns (three) and has averaged 232.7 yards per game.

Matt Ryan, ATL at GB

Ryan concluded a 10-game streak with at least 270 passing yards by posting less than half that mark versus the stout Baltimore pass defense. Normally, a meeting with the Packers would be just what the doctor ordered for the former league MVP. After all, he's shredded them plenty of times in the past (12 TDs in their last four contests dating back to 2014, including playoffs). But that argument is weak. This Packers team has a new defensive coordinator, different personnel and quietly one of the stingiest pass defenses. Green Bay ranks just three sacks shy of Pittsburgh for the league lead while also allowing the sixth-fewest aerial yards per game. Moreover, with temperatures forecasted for a high in the 20s and possibly colder as the game wears on, it won't exactly be ideal passing conditions for the quarterback who's played his entire career in the comfort of Atlanta's dome stadium.

Jared Goff, LAR at CHI

Born in California. Raised in California. Played collegiately in California. Playing professionally in southern California. Following the theme here? Goff has limited exposure to football in cold weather. Heck, he likely has limited life experience in cold weather. Translation: The cold will make him more uncomfortable than most. When the dark of night arrives in Chicago for Sunday's showdown of two of the top NFC teams the temperature will be in the 20s. Goff's worst fantasy day of the last two years came in an unexpectedly cold October visit to Denver when it was also in the 20s. Facing a stiff pass rush and with Cooper Kupp getting injured early, Goff completed a season-low 50 percent of his passes for 201 yards, no scores and a pick. He was sacked five times. Von Miller and Bradley Chubb form a terrific duo, but at last check Khalil Mack is still one of the most feared pass rushers in football for a Bears defense tied with Denver for fifth in sacks. Oh, and Kupp is now done for the year, and to add insult to injury, Chicago leads the league in interceptions. No bueno.

RB

Spencer Ware, KC vs. BAL

A disappointment in his first start of the season following the release of Kareem Hunt, the Chiefs' veteran tailback was unable to take full advantage of a Raiders defense giving up over 5.0 YPC to running backs. Although being the lead back in an elite offense certainly carries major upside, it's hard to imagine Ware will fare much better against an imposing Ravens front seven that's limited opposing backfields to 3.4 YPC and the fewest yards from scrimmage (a paltry 90.5 per game).

Chris Carson, SEA vs. MIN
Carson has registered at least 100 scrimmage yards or a touchdown in each of his last four full games and he's been fed at least 14 touches in his last seven full contests. And yet, he's still a little shy of true workhorse status. When Carson sat out versus the Rams four weeks ago he opened the door to rookie Rashaad Penny finally carving out a role and after racking up 223 yards and two scores on his last 31 carries since that time (7.2 YPC), it's clear Penny needs to get the ball more moving forward. Don't forget Carson's dislocated finger suffered in Week 13, which could impact how much work he receives and, more significantly, how he can actually grip the ball. So, although Carson will likely still lead this backfield, it's possible with each passing week it could become more and more of a timeshare. That's bad news with a Vikings defense coming to town that's allowed the sixth fewest rushing yards to opposing tailbacks.

Nick Chubb, CLE vs. CAR

The strength of the Carolina defense for years has been – and remains -- its front seven. The proof is in the pudding. Only the Ravens and Saints have allowed fewer scrimmage yards to opposing tailbacks than the 105.2 per game the Panthers have been relenting. Serving as the engine of the Browns offense in recent weeks, Chubb has rightfully earned a great deal of defensive attention. Defenses are essentially betting against Cleveland's lack of talented skill players in the passing game and keying on the run. It's led to Chubb grinding out 115 yards on 37 carries the past two weeks (3.1 YPC). He's managed to save his fantasy days with three scores in that stretch and over 40 yards receiving in both games, but, at least for daily formats, it's not ideal to bet on touchdowns. After all, the Texans last week and the Steelers six weeks ago represent the only other top-10 run defenses Chubb has faced as the starter, and he tallied just a combined 96 rushing yards in those contests.

WR

Corey Davis, TEN vs. JAX

Well, that was fun while it lasted. Davis surged into the fantasy playoffs with three scores in his past four contests, but a visit from an apparently angry Jaguars defense that just shut out a Colts team that was averaging 29.5 points per game is going to handcuff Davis. Jalen Ramsey certainly got the better of him in the pair's first meeting way back in Week 3, limiting the second-year wideout to just two grabs for 34 yards. So, although Davis has scored in each of Marcus Mariota's last three full games, don't count on that trend continuing.

Allen Robinson, CHI vs. LAR

Robinson flashed the brilliant boundary and downfield abilities versus the Giants that made him a star in 2015, but doing that against Big Blue's inconsistent cornerbacks and doing that versus Aqib Talib are two entirely different stories. Talib has the size, speed and physicality to neutralize Robinson's big play ability. When he's making everything difficult for the Bears' No. 1 wideout, don't be surprised to see Matt Nagy's scheme shift focus to the club's myriad of other weapons.

Alshon Jeffery, PHI at DAL

Jeffery sure had his faithful investors excited when he showed up in Week 4 and proceeded to have at least seven catches, 74 yards and a score in three of his first four games back from a shoulder injury that stalled his 2018 debut. He saw 39 targets in that span and looked like a draft steal. A Golden Tate trade later, and he's barely a part of the offense. Jeffery has a meager 26 targets over the last five contests and not one single game above 48 yards – the last time he faced Dallas. Jeffery also hasn't visited the end zone in this stretch. Most of you are probably thinking, "why's he even a downgrade, we already know he's a bum?" But name recognition goes a long way, and it's not like it was long ago that he piled up 16 touchdowns in his first 23 games in an Eagles uniform (playoffs included). Anyone still relying on him in the playoffs though, be advised: Byron Jones still has yet to give up a touchdown in coverage and just held Michael Thomas to 40 yards. There are MANY better options this week.