Exploiting the Matchups: Week 18 Start/Sit and Fantasy Streamers

Written by

Published on January 2, 2025

The Bills, Chiefs, Eagles and Rams have already announced that they'll either be holding out some key players or removing them early, and Texans coach DeMeco Ryans acknowledged the possibility of doing the same. Houston has nothing to play for in terms of seeding but may want to use starters for at least part of the game for confidence/momentum/practice reasons.

The Chargers may also be locked into their seed before they play Las Vegas on Sunday, with any hope of moving up from sixth to fifth depending on the Bengals beating the Steelers on Saturday. If that happens, and the Ravens also beat the Browns, we'll likely see the Chargers go all-out for a win to set up a first-round game in Houston rather than Baltimore.

For non-playoff teams, we already have the Titans and Browns talking about using multiple QBs, which means it won't be surprising if other key players get lesser-than-usual workloads in order to reduce the odds of major injuries / free up reps for younger players that their teams want to evaluate. This is always a possibility for non-playoff teams, even if nothing is announced beforehand.

The other peculiarity of Week 18 is the potential impact of milestones and incentives. My Box Score Breakdown article on Monday covered most of these, but I'll re-hash some of the big ones before we get started on the usual matchups analysis, which will be a bit shorter than usual. I'll use bold for the guys where I think the

Players within striking distance of 1,000 receiving yards: Darnell Mooney (992), Puka Nacua (990), Courtland Sutton (983), Davante Adams (975), Nico Collins (968), Jameson Williams (967), Calvin Ridley (941), Tyreek Hill (939), DK Metcalf (939), Jauan Jennings (923), Mike Evans (915), Jakobi Meyers (904), George Pickens (900), DJ Moore (880), Jordan Addison (875), Tee Higgins (858).
Players within striking distance of 1,000 rushing yards: Joe Mixon (993), Chase Brown (990), James Cook (981), Alvin Kamara (950), D'Andre Swift (894).
Players within striking distance of 100 receptions: Travis Kelce (97), Garrett Wilson (97), Jaxon Smith-Njigba (96), Drake London (90), DJ Moore (89).
RB Derrick Henry is one TD away from earning the final $500k he has available in regular-season incentives.
- Henry also needs 217 yards to reach 2,000, and 223 yards to surpass Saquon Barkley for the rushing crown. That'll be difficult, obviously, and it likely would require taking carries in a blowout situation where the Ravens want to be resting starters.
Titans RB Tony Pollard can earn $250k with 83 rushing yards (reaching 1,100) and another $250k if he scores two rushing TDs.
Seahawks QB Geno Smith has a ton of money up for grabs this week, with $2 million apiece in escalators for topping his 2022 career highs in passing yards, TDs, completion percentage, passer rating and team wins.
- Three of the five are within reach, potentially making him $6 million. To do that, Smith needs 186 passing yards while keeping his completion percentage above 69.76% (currently 70.2%) and getting the win over a Rams team that's resting starters. It is possible the Seahawks pull Smith early if they're up big, and they might also feed him easy completions (like screens to Zach Charbonnet or Jaxon Smith-Njigba) if he slips below the completion percentage mark. I don't think any of this requires adjusting Smith's Week 18 outlook considerably, as there are a number of ways it could influence his fantasy stats, both good and bad.
Seahawks TE Noah Fant is on track for a second straight season with 400+ yards and no TD. He last scored a TD in Dec. 2022 and has caught more than 80 passes since then. I think the Seahawks will try to get him in the end zone Sunday, especially if they're up big on the Rams.
WR DeAndre Hopkins is one TD away from earning $250k.
- He's also nine catches away from $250k, but that one seems highly unlikely with the Chiefs resting starters against a supremely motivated Broncos team.

Unless otherwise noted, references to 'fantasy points' are based on PPR scoring with 25/10 yards per point and 4/6 points for TDs. Start % comes from Yahoo, as of Wednesday night / Thursday morning.

Start/Upgrade 👍

Quarterbacks 👍

Jayden Daniels (at DAL) — 67% started

Start Over — everyone besides Lamar Jackson

The Commanders are only playing for seeding at this point, but unlike Rams coach Sean McVay, they apparently care about securing an easier first-round matchup. Coach Dan Quinn already said he'll play his starters, which means Daniels has an excellent chance to continue his five-game streak with 23.6 or more PPR points. The streak started with a 32.4-point performance in the memorable Week 12 loss to Dallas, in which Daniels had three total TDs. In five subsequent games, the Cowboys have surrendered nine passing TDs and three rushing scores to quarterbacks, leaving them dead last in the league for fantasy points allowed to the position (21.0 per game).

Other Good Matchups: Baker Mayfield (vs. NO), Sam Darnold (at DET), Bo Nix (vs. KC), Geno Smith (at LAR), Russell Wilson (vs. CIN), Drew Lock (vs. PHI), Drake Maye (at BUF)

Running Backs 👍

Zach Charbonnet (at LAR) — 43% started

Start Over — Rico Dowdle (vs. WAS), Aaron Jones (at DET), Breece Hall (vs. MIA)

This one is rather simple, as we've already seen that Charbonnet gets big workloads when Kenneth Walker (ankle) is out and is good enough to put up strong numbers against NFL starters. Even with Kenny McIntosh likely cutting into Charbonnet's snaps/touches after a solid showing last week at Chicago, there's an excellent chance of Charbonnet getting 15-plus carries against a Rams defense that figures to be resting a lot of starters. Fire him up as a fantasy RB1 this week.

Michael Carter (vs. SF) — 4% started

Start Over — Isaac Guerendo (at ARZ), Rhamondre Stevenson (vs. BUF), Brian Robinson (at DAL)

With Trey Benson and James Conner both on injured reserve, Carter should get at least 15 touches (and possibly a lot more) to close out the season in a home game against the banged-up 49ers. QB Brock Purdy (elbow) is already ruled out while the likes of George Kittle (knee), Nick Bosa (knee), Deommodore Lenoir (shoulder) and Deebo Samuel (rib/knee) are uncertain to play, leaving the 49ers as four-point underdogs. Carter took 87 percent of Arizona's snaps and 14 of 15 RB opportunities after Conner's early departure last week, finishing with 14 touches for 81 yards. I like his chances to put up around 100 total yards and a TD this time around.

Other Good Matchups: Bijan Robinson (vs. CAR), Jonathan Taylor (vs. JAX) Bucky Irving & Rachaad White (at NO), Tyrone Tracy (at PHI), Jaylen Warren (vs. CIN), Rhamondre Stevenson (vs. BUF)

Wide Receivers 👍

DJ Moore (at GB) — 74% started

Start Over — Marvin Harrison (vs. SF), Nico Collins (vs. TEN), Zay Flowers (vs. CLE)

In addition to CB Jaire Alexander's continued absence, the Packers likely will be playing without starting safety Evan Williams (quad) again, and they may also be missing his backup, Zayne Anderson, who entered concussion protocol during Sunday's loss to Minnesota. The Packers have allowed the seventh fewest PPR points to WRs on the season, but that's not an accurate reflection of the current state of their pass defense. Moore had 7-62-0 when these teams met Week 11, and he should provide the same or better Week 18, following five straight games with eight or more targets and seven in a row with at least seven (scoring at least 10.9 PPR points in each of those seven games). Sunday's forecast is mild by Green Bay winter standards, with highs in the low 20s, no precipitation and winds below10 mph.

Jalen McMillan (vs. NO) — 25% started

Start Over — Michael Pittman (vs. JAX), Jerry Jeudy (at BAL), Keenan Allen (vs. GB)

McMillan is up to four straight games with 5-7 targets, 45 catches, 51-75 yards and at least one touchdown, emerging as a stellar second threat across from Mike Evans. While there's definitely a chance of Tampa Bay forcing Evans the ball to get him to 1,000 yards yet again, I'm guessing enough work will be left for the other key pieces in Tampa's red-hot, efficient offense to also have solid fantasy games. The Saints have some of the worst cornerbacks in the league and are allowing the ninth most PPR points to wide receivers.

Other Good Matchups: Justin Jefferson & Jordan Addison (at DET), Amon-Ra St. Brown & Jameson Williams (vs. MIN), Mike Evans (vs. NO), Drake London & Darnell Mooney (vs. CAR), Terry McLaurin & Olamide Zaccheaus (at DAL), Jaxon Smith-Njigba & DK Metcalf (at LAR), Brian Thomas (at IND), Malik Nabers (at PHI), Courtland Sutton & Marvin Mims (vs. KC), Rome Odunze & Keenan Allen (at GB), Adam Thielen (at ATL), Zay Flowers & Rashod Bateman (vs. CLE), Alec Pierce, Michael Pittman & Josh Downs (vs. JAX), Quentin Johnston (vs. LV), DeMario Douglas (vs. BUF)

Tight Ends 👍

Pat Freiermuth (vs. CIN) — 30% started

Start Over — Kyle Pitts (vs. CAR), Jake Ferguson (vs. WAS), Hunter Henry (vs. BUF)

The Bengals have taken a beating from TEs all year long, yielding 10 individual performances of 13.9 or more PPR points while giving up a league-high 16.3 points per game to the position. Freiermuth also happens to be trending up, scoring 11+ PPR points in four of his past five games after reaching that mark just once in his first 11 appearances. His best score of the season, 18.8 PPR points, came in a 44-38 victory Week 13 against this same Bengals team.

Other Good Matchups: Chig Okonkwo (vs. HOU), Kyle Pitts (vs. CAR), Brenton Strange (at IND), Noah Fant (at LAR)

Sit/Downgrade 👎

Quarterbacks 👎

C.J. Stroud (at TEN) — 35% started

Start Instead — Geno Smith (at LAR), Aaron Rodgers (vs. MIA), Bryce Young (at ATL)

I'm guessing Stroud will start this week, but that doesn't mean he'll play a full game, nor does it mean he'll attempt a lot of throws while he's in the contest or pass efficiently. Houston's problems on offense aren't his fault, but they're also not the type of issues that can simply be solved via willpower or practice reps or improved confidence. I'd much rather have Bryce Young or Drake Maye or even Joe Flacco (if he starts) in a fantasy lineup this week, figuring the volume projections are way better than Stroud's.

Other Tough Matchups: Jordan Love (vs. CHI), C.J. Stroud (at TEN), Aaron Rodgers (vs. MIA)

Running Backs 👎

Tank Bigsby & Travis Etienne (at IND) — 42% started

Start Instead — Blake Corum (vs. SEA), Ray Davis (vs. NE), Miles Sanders (at ATL)

The Colts have played surprisingly tough run defense since their Week 14 bye, allowing 2.7 YPC and a league-best 22.8 percent success rate. The Jaguars, meanwhile, still have no rhythm to their running game, rotating Bigsby and Etienne behind a subpar offensive line. This is one of the few games with no potential rest concerns, but that doesn't mean it's a safe space for fantasy production, unless we're talking about Jags WR Brian Thomas. I'd rather gamble on Blake Corum or Ray Davis running behind backup offensive linemen (but potentially handling huge workloads).

Other Tough Matchups: Jahmyr Gibbs (vs. MIN), De'Von Achane (at NYJ), Joe Mixon (at TEN)

Wide Receivers 👎

Garrett Wilson (vs. MIA) — 81% started

Start Instead — Drake London (vs. CAR), Terry McLaurin (at DAL), Courtland Sutton (vs. KC)

Wilson still needs to be started in most redraft/dynasty formats, especially with so many key players resting this week, but he's someone to avoid for stuff like DFS and prop betting. This may be last call for the Aaron Rodgers - Davante Adams love affair, and with Adams largely working the slot of late, Wilson may face shadow coverage from Jalen Ramsey. That was the case in the last matchup between these teams, in which Wilson topped 100 yards anyway, but the overall picture still isn't pretty. Wilson is the second option in his team's passing game, and he may face shadow coverage from an excellent cornerback on a defense that's allowed the second fewest PPR points to wide receivers.

Jayden Reed (vs. CHI) — 36% started

Start Instead — Michael Pittman (vs. JAX), Quentin Johnston (at LV), Rashod Bateman (vs. CLE)

Reed's season has been incredibly frustrating, featuring front-weighted production and then shockingly little volume. His strong work with the targets he gets hasn't led to more work, and he's somehow averaging just 3.7 targets per game since Green Bay's Week 10 bye. He scored a TD in the previous matchup with Chicago, in Week 11, but he still finished slightly south of double-digit PPR points, with two targets and 18 total yards. No team has allowed fewer PPR points to WRs this season, which is about the only thing that's gone right for the Bears.

Other Tough Matchups: Nico Collins (at TEN), Deebo Samuel (at ARZ), Dontayvion Wicks (vs. CHI)

Tight Ends 👎

Tucker Kraft (at CHI) — 36% started

Start Instead — Hunter Henry (vs. BUF), Zach Ertz (at DAL), Chig Okonkwo (vs. HOU)

Kraft had his only catch-less game of the season the last time the Packers faced the Bears (Week 11), and he's still drawing fewer than five targets more often than not, relying on big plays and TDs rather than steady volume. It's mostly worked alright for fantasy, as evidenced by a 46-671-7 receiving line, but Kraft fell shy of 10 PPR points each of the past three weeks and is unlikely to do much better against a Bears defense that has healthy, talented linebackers.