Exploiting the Matchups: Week 9 Start/Sit and Streamers

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Updated on November 4, 2022 12:17PM EST

Unless otherwise noted, references to 'fantasy points' are based on PPR scoring with 25/10 yards per point and 4/6 points for TDs. Start % comes from Yahoo, as of Wednesday night / Thursday morning.

Start/Upgrade

Quarterbacks 👍

Justin Fields (vs. MIA) — 27% started

Start Over — Geno Smith (at ARZ), Matthew Stafford (at TB)

Fields has scored a season high for fantasy points in four straight games, going from 17.0 to 19.4 to 24.4 to 26.0 after starting the year with four in a row below 15. The Bears have even shown signs of progressing from 1950s passing volume to something more like the 60s or 70s, and they even traded for Chase Claypool earlier this week to give Fields a second legitimate threat alongside Darnell Mooney. The Bears will still run the ball first and foremost, but that also represents a path to fantasy points for Fields, who has six straight games with 47 or more rushing yards and three in a row with 60-pus. But don't be shocked if he gets it done with his arm as well, facing a Dolphins team that ranks 28th in pass-defense DVOA and 26th in fantasy points allowed to QBs.

Other Good Matchups: Kirk Cousins (at WAS), Aaron Rodgers (at DET), Trevor Lawrence (vs. LV)

Running Backs 👍

Raheem Mostert (at CHI) — 79% started

Start Over — Dameon Pierce (vs. PHI), Miles Sanders (at HOU)

A tough September schedule has been

Start/Upgrade

Quarterbacks 👍

Justin Fields (vs. MIA) — 27% started

Start Over — Geno Smith (at ARZ), Matthew Stafford (at TB)

Other Good Matchups: Kirk Cousins (at WAS), Aaron Rodgers (at DET), Trevor Lawrence (vs. LV)

Running Backs 👍

Raheem Mostert (at CHI) — 79% started

Start Over — Dameon Pierce (vs. PHI), Miles Sanders (at HOU)

A tough September schedule has been followed by a run of favorable matchups, and while the production hasn't exactly been consistent, Mostert's workload has been just that — five consecutive games with at least 14 carries and 62 percent of snaps. It's not clear Jeff Wilson will threaten Mostert's touches any more than Chase Edmonds did, but it is clear the Bears have a terrible front seven after trading away Roquan Smith and Robert Quinn the past couple weeks. They've given up the seventh most fantasy points to running backs, as is, ranking 28th in DVOA against the run and 27th in YPC allowed (5.0).

Cordarrelle Patterson (knee) OR Tyler Allgeier

Start Patterson Over — Devin Singletary (at NYJ), David Montgomery (vs. MIA)

If Patterson Out, Start Allgeier Over — Michael Carter (vs. BUF), Jamaal Williams (vs. GB)

Patterson returned to practice just in time for a matchup with one of the softest run defenses in the league. The Chargers rank 23rd in DVOA against the run and have given up a league-worst 5.7 YPC as well as the second most points to RBs, essentially picking up where they left off last season. And as flawed as the Falcons are, they're unlikely to get blown out by a Chargers squad that's missing its best pass rusher, top cornerback, star blindside protector and likely the top two WRs. If Patterson is out again, Allgeier will have a nice chance to make it three games in a row with a touchdown and likely will get at least 13 carries for a fifth straight week. Even Caleb Huntley (17 percent rostered on Yahoo) is in play as a desperation/deep-league starter if C-Patt misses one more game.

Other Good Matchups: Miles Sanders (at HOU), AJ Dillon (at DET), James Conner OR Eno Benjamin (vs. SEA), Jerick McKinnon (vs. TEN), JaMycal Hasty (vs. LV), Sony Michel (at ATL)

Wide Receivers 👍

Curtis Samuel (vs. MIN) — 37% started

Start Over — Devin Duvernay (at NO), Allen Robinson (at TAM), Garrett Wilson (vs. BUF)

Samuel led the Commanders in targets (or tied for the lead) in each of their first seven games, failing to do so for the first time last week against Indianapolis. He made up for it with 50 yards on his four targets and four carries for 29 yards, after taking five carries for 26 yards the week before. Prior to that, Samuel had gone three straight games without a carry and managed only 96 total yards over the stretch, falling out of favor with fantasy managers despite maintaining a crucial role as a pass catcher.

Taylor Heinicke might look to McLaurin a bit more than Carson Wentz did, and rightfully so, but Samuel should do well this week between his work on the ground and his slot matchup against Minnesota's Chandon Sullivan (graded 77th of 110 qualified CBs by PFF). Despite already having his bye, Sullivan has allowed 98 more yards in slot coverage (446) than any other cornerback... ouch.

Joshua Palmer (at ATL) — 28% started

Start Over — Drake London (vs. LAC), Chase Claypool (vs. MIA)

This is a matchups column, not a skills column, and it's my opinion that Palmer is the worst real-life WR to "earn" one of these blurbs this year. He's in a spot where mediocrity should get it done, playing in a dome against a terrible defense that likely will be missing its top two cornerbacks. No team has allowed more fantasy points to wide receivers, and Palmer is the Chargers' de facto No. 1 with Keenan Allen (hamstring) and Mike Williams (knee) both failing to practice after the Week 8 bye. DeAndre Carter is also in play, with he and Palmer the two seemingly assured of lofty snap counts. Just make sure Palmer (concussion) is cleared to play and neither Allen nor Williams experiences a late-week miracle in his recovery.

Other Good Matchups: Christian Kirk (vs. LV), Adam Thielen (at WAS), Romeo Doubs & Sammy Watkins (at DET), Robert Woods (at KC), Darnell Mooney (vs. MIA), Mack Hollins (at JAX)

Tight Ends 👍

Evan Engram (vs. LV) — 40% started

Start Over — Dawson Knox (at NYJ), Tyler Higbee (at TB), Taysom Hill (vs. BAL)

Engram has seen a surge in fantasy popularity after scoring his first TD of the season right before six teams went on bye. The score was nice, but the more important point is that he's reached six targets and 40 yards in four straight games, with his snap shares trending up all along (75% to 78% to 85% to 93%). Engram should be startable the rest of the season, and especially this week against a Raiders defense that's 31st in DVOA against the pass and 30th in fantasy points allowed to tight ends.

Other Good Matchups: Zach Ertz (vs. SEA), Gerald Everett (at ATL), Robert Tonyan (at DET)

Sit/Downgrade

Quarterbacks 👎

Matthew Stafford (at TB) — 28% started

Start Instead — Geno Smith (at ARZ), Derek Carr (at JAX)

Regardless of how blame is distributed, there's no denying the Los Angeles passing game has taken a massive step back from last year, and Stafford is averaging just one TD per game after throwing for 40 in 2022. The Bucs defense is starting to slip some while dealing with numerous key injuries, but the combination of extra rest (after TNF last week), homefield advantage and a struggling offense should get Tampa right back on track. For Stafford, it'll likely be another long afternoon amidst a long, disappointing season.

Other Tough Matchups: Davis Mills (vs. PHI), Zach Wilson (vs. BUF),

Running Backs 👎

D'Onta Foreman (at CIN) — 63% started

Start Instead — Cordarrelle Patterson (vs. LAC)

Friday Update: Chuba Hubbard (ankle)has been ruled out again, giving Foreman role/workload security for a second straight week, albeit in a tougher matchup after he feasted on the Falcons for a trio of TDs this past Sunday. While still the most likely TD scorer for his team, Foreman and the Panthers have an implied total of just 17.75 as seven-point road underdogs in Cincinnati, held back by arguably the worst passing game in the NFL.

Devin Singletary (at NYJ) — 66% started

Start Instead — Raheem Mostert (at CHI), David Montgomery (vs. MIA)

It's possible Nyheim Hines takes the work that's been going to James Cook, and nothing else. And even if that's not how it plays out, it might play out that way in Hines' first game on a new team. My bigger concern here, regardless of the trade, is something I've pointed out in this article a few times throughout the season — the tendency for Singletary to get more snaps and score more fantasy points when the Bills have a tough game against strong competition. His three best fantasy outings of the year have come in losses or close wins, while his four lower scores have come in Buffalo's four multi-score victories. This week, the Bills are favored by nearly two touchdowns, and against a Jets team that's been much better on defense than offense.

Other Tough Matchups: Clyde Edwards-Helaire (vs. TEN), Michael Carter & James Robinson (vs. BUF), Darrell Henderson & Ronnie Rivers (at TB)

Wide Receivers 👎

Gabe Davis (at NYJ) — 72% started

Start Instead — DJ Moore (at CIN), Tyler Lockett (at ARZ), JuJu Smith-Schuster (vs. TEN)

You're definitely doing something right if benching Davis is even an option for you, especially with six teams on bye. But it's not out of the question for everyone, and it is true that Davis has it tougher this week than most. The Jets have allowed the second fewest fantasy points to wide receivers on the perimeter — where Davis lines up 86.3 percent of the time — with cornerbacks Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed both holding top-seven PFF grades at the position. For DFS tournaments it's a bit trickier, as there's an argument for using deep-ball-dependent players like Davis when they're lower-owned in tougher matchups.

Alec Pierce and Parris Campbell (at NE) — 14% started

Start Instead — Zay Jones (vs. LV), Marquez Valdes-Scantling (vs. TEN)

This is a tough spot for all the Indianapolis receivers, including Michael Pittman, facing a defense ranked fifth in DVOA against the pass and 10th in fantasy points allowed to WRs. Just as problematic is the reality that both teams want to run the ball and are fine with playing slow, which is why Patriots-Colts has an over/under (39.4) three full points below any other game this week. Ok, lousy QB play is also a factor, but that's another tick against Pittman, Pierce and Campbell — all of whom have talent working in their favor... and not much else.

Other Tough Matchups: Chris Olave (vs. BAL), Brandin Cooks (at PHI), Gabriel Davis (at NYJ)

Tight Ends 👎

Tyler Higbee (at TB) — 55% started

Start Instead — Gerald Everett (at ATL), Hayden Hurst (vs. CAR)

My initial thought last Sunday was that Higbee would see more targets with Cooper Kupp suffering an ankle injury late in the loss to San Francisco. But it now appears Kupp will play, and the Rams have better WR depth with Van Jefferson back, while Higbee has lost more of his pass snaps to blocking as the year has gone along (as detailed in this week's Target Breakdown on RotoWire).

Other Tough Matchups: Taysom Hill (vs. BAL), Tyler Conklin (vs. BUF)