FanDuel NFL: Week 14 Breakdown

FanDuel NFL: Week 14 Breakdown

This article is part of our FanDuel Fantasy Football series.

We've reached a key point in the fantasy football season, with this being the final week of the regular season in many fantasy formats. For some, that may be the primary focus, but we still have a solid 11-game slate to work with Sunday. Let's jump in. 

The Games

A lot of the focus of DFS picks is on individual players. Skills certainly matter, but finding game environments that are likely to promote a lot of points scored is a way to narrow the focus of our player pool.

Over/UnderRoad TeamRoad Implied TotalHome TeamHome Implied Total
40.5Buccaneers19Falcons21.5
40.5Rams16.5Ravens24
43.5Lions23.25Bears20.25
33.5Jaguars15.25Browns18.25
37.5Panthers16Saints21.5
33.5Texans18.5Jets15
40.5Vikings21.75Raiders18.75
46.5Seahawks1849ers28.5
48.5Bills23.5Chiefs25
43.5Broncos20.5Chargers23
  •  The 49ers, Chiefs, Ravens, Bills, Lions and Chargers stand out as having the highest implied team totals.
  • The games most conducive to offense appear to be the Bills-Chiefs, Chargers-Broncos and 49ers-Seahawks.

Value Options

This section will highlight players that project well on a point-per-dollar basis. DFS analysis will often focus on getting 3X return on a player's salary, or another similar mark. This is only a part of the analysis but can help identify potential salary savers or building blocks for lineups.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire vs. BUF ($5,500)

This pick was either CEH or Zack Moss. Moss is likely the better play, but his price has risen to reflect his excellent workload. With Isiah Pacheco (shoulder) sidelined, coach Andy Reid said Friday that CEH will shift up the depth chart and take over as the lead back. There's some danger that Jerick McKinnon eats into CEH's opportunity, but he's still priced right to roster.  

Garrett Wilson vs. HOU ($6,700)

We never thought that getting Zach Wilson back under center would be good news, but here we are. Wilson has averaged nearly 1.5 points more per game with Wilson under center than in the two games since Tim Boyle took over. That includes his Week 11 matchup against Buffalo when he posted -0.1 points with Wilson under center. This is also about price, as Wilson has fallen from a peak cost of $7,400 to its current point.

Other Value Options

QB Jake Browning vs. IND ($6,500)
QB Joe Flacco vs. JAC ($6,400)
RB Zack Moss at CIN ($6,800)
RB James Cook at KC ($6,600)
RB Dameon Pierce at NYJ ($6,100)
WR Amari Cooper vs. JAC ($6,400)
WR Noah Brown at NYJ ($6,000) 
WR Odell Beckham vs. LAR ($5,700_
WR Robert Woods at NYJ ($5,400) (if Brown is out)
WR Zay Jones at CLE ($5,200) 
TE David Njoku vs. JAC ($5,500)
TE Isaiah Likely vs. LAR ($5,200)
TE Gerald Everett vs. DEN ($5,100)
TE Brevin Jordan at NYJ ($5,000)
TE Tyler Conklin vs. HOU ($4,800)

Stacks to Consider

Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears

There was thought that the weather could impact this game early in the week, but things look to be clearing up for the time being. Keep an eye on that as we approach kickoff Sunday. Otherwise, this game sets up well.

The Lions' defense has trended down lately, particularly in the secondary. In the last four weeks, only the Eagles have allowed more quarterback points and the unit has also allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to wide receivers. The first place to focus is on Justin Fields ($7,900). He hasn't had a big fantasy performance in two games since he has returned from injury, but he's shown a willingness to run (104 and 59 yards rushing in two games). While he's not the best passer in the league, Fields should also see touchdown regression as he has only one score despite tallying 549 total yards from scrimmage in that two-game span.

One option is to play Fields on his own, which is viable due to his rushing. There are also good pass-catching options as well due to the concentrated nature of the passing attack. Since Fields has returned, DJ Moore ($7,700) has commanded 22 targets and Cole Kmet ($5,600) 11. No other pass catcher has more than five.

The Bears defense has gotten stingier since acquiring Montez Sweat and has been particularly solid in the last few weeks. It doesn't feel like a ceiling game for Jared Goff ($7,500), but this is yet another team that will concentrate its targets. Amon-Ra St. Brown ($8,200) has an elite target rate and efficiency (28.6 percent target-per-route-run rate, 2.61 yards per route run), giving him one of the safer floors at the position. The matchup isn't great on paper for Sam LaPorta ($7,200), but he has the highest ceiling of a tight end not named Travis Kelce or T.J. Hockenson.

Los Angeles Chargers vs. Denver Broncos

Although this game has a higher total than the Lions-Bears matchup, it has more variance on paper. Those looking to stack this game should hope that the Chargers get out of the gates quickly, forcing Denver out of its preferred run-heavy offense. If they can do so, this game has the chance to not just go over the total, but well over. On the other hand, if the Broncos jump out to an early lead, this game could be a dud from an offensive perspective.

It's worth the risk because this is another pair of teams where it's relatively straightforward to project where fantasy points will come from. Keenan Allen ($8,800) is priced way up, but he has excellent participation and efficiency (27.4 percent TPRR, 2.34 YPRR) metrics. He'll likely need two touchdowns to pay off his price, but he already has two such performances this season. The other two options worth mentioning are Austin Ekeler ($7,500) and Gerald Everett ($5,100). Ekeler has not performed up to his previous lofty standards, so much so that coach Brandon Staley suggested Joshua Kelley will gain a more significant role in the offense. That suggests rostering Ekeler would be foolish, but he does have at least 19 FD points three times this season and it's a buy-low spot from a price perspective in a week where he won't be rostered. Everett hasn't topped 12.3 FD points this season, but the Broncos have surrendered the most points per game to tight ends.

On the Denver side, Courtland Sutton ($7,200) is the standout option. His peripherals pale in comparison to some of the other options we've already laid out (20.5 TPRR, 1.74 YPRR), but he has nine touchdowns and has operated in something of a poor man's Mike Evans' role. He's the only viable bringback, so this could be best played as a skinny stack.

High-Priced Heroes

Christian McCaffrey vs. SEA ($10,400)

This isn't exactly a bold take, but McCaffrey is a building block on this slate. The Seahawks have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to running backs this season and have given up more than 30 points to backfields in three of their last five games. McCaffrey fills the vast majority of the work out San Francisco backfield, meaning he should account for nearly all of the points surrendered by Seattle. The matchup could get even better if Jordyn Brooks (ankle) is out.

Alvin Kamara vs. CAR ($9,000)

Kamara is also in an already good spot that could get even better. He's topped 100 total yards in five of his last seven games. Meanwhile, the Panthers are a run-funnel defense, allowing the second-most points to running backs this season. The danger in that appealing matchup on the surface is Carolina's ability to stop receiving work out of the backfield (fourth-fewest receiving yards to RBs). That's where the injury to Taysom Hill (foot) comes into play. Hill has yet to practice this week, suggesting he will be unavailable — clearing the path for Kamara to reach the end zone multiple times.

The Smash Spot

(Players in favorable spots to significantly outperform their salary.)

Joe Mixon vs. IND ($7,200)

This feels a bit like chasing points, which is never a good idea. But Mixon is in a good position to follow his 26.7 FD point performance in Week 13 against the Jaguars in a  matchup against a Colts defense that is another run funnel. The Bengals have threatened to shift running back opportunity away from Mixon to Chase Brown, yet Brown was only on the field for 11 offensive snaps against Jacksonville. Mixon has also seen his receiving work improve with Jake Browning under center, as he's tallied 31, 44 and 49 receiving yards in the last three weeks.  

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Dan Marcus plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: FanDuel: marcusd91 DraftKings: dmarcus87.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Dan Marcus
Dan started covering fantasy sports in 2015, joining Rotowire in 2018. In addition to Rotowire, Dan has written for Baseball HQ and Rotoballer.
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