This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
Games
Cincinnati Bengals 
(+4) (-110) at Tennessee Titans 
This week is chock full of games in which teams I trust clash with teams I don't. We will see how my vision plays out…..given the last couple of weeks, I'm sure you all are skeptical, and I can't blame you, but the long-term big picture is where the money is made. Let's get right this week with one of "my" teams this year, the Cincinnati Bengals. We will start with a trend to keep in mind: SU winners in this round are on a 29-10-1 ATS run. That means if you pick the winner, you likely cash your line bet, and I think Cincy stays hot and wins this game outright. No combo is hotter than Joe Burrow and Ja'Marr Chase, and with the playoff monkey off their back, the young Bengals should come into this game free and loose. Now, I do have to acknowledge Mike Vrabel's 8-0 record SU and ATS with more than a week to prepare, but I think that streak ends for a couple of reasons. First, contrary to popular belief, I don't see the return of Derrick Henry as the great thing everyone is making it out to be. If he had a couple of games under his belt, sure, but adding/subtracting any critical pieces for the first time in playoff games can be dicey. It can disrupt rotations and the general flow of a team to basically prepare a completely different way than they have for months leading up to it. Should we also mention a Titans D that has been trash most of the year, particularly a pass defense ranked 31st in the league? Burrow, Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd feast today and carry Who Dey Nation to victory.
San Francisco 49ers 
at Green Bay Packers 
(UNDER 47.5) (-114)
Another team I trust (SF) facing one I don't (GB). Like last week, the key to San Fran staying in this game is to control the clock with their power running game and keep the ball out of the hands of Aaron Rodgers (and Jimmy G, for that matter). Run the ball, limit turnovers, and roll clock. The danger to that formula (and the under) is Green Bay getting out to a big lead and forcing the Niners to ditch the run. However, GB is just 3-14 ATS in the first quarter this year, so fast starts haven't been their forte. San Fran is built to beat Green Bay….I'm not sure they have enough in the tank to do that, but I expect a hard-fought, low-scoring war.
Kansas City Chiefs (-1.5) (-114) vs Buffalo Bills
I admit I was blinded by Bill Belichick last week. In hindsight, that was a terrible read with a rookie QB making his first playoff start. However, I'll still ask, what has Buffalo actually done outside of beating up on mediocre/bad teams all year? The Vegas power ratings love the Bills, and I'm going to take advantage of their inflated value here. You're saying Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid are at home, in the playoffs, in January, and only favored by 1.5 points? That's almost an auto-play by itself. Add on the facts that KC has revenge, Buffalo is on a 1-7 ATS run in January, and the Chiefs are 6-1 ATS when John Hussey is the referee assigned to their game, and it is impossible to turn down this value. I think the Chiefs win comfortably.
Other Bets
Tyler Boyd receiving yards (OVER 45.5) (-110)
As mentioned, the Titans' pass defense is among the worst in the league and Tyler Boyd's target share has been remarkably consistent all year. Since Week 13, Boyd's target numbers are 7, 5, 6, 5, 6, and 5, and he has gone over 45.5 receiving yards in 4 of those 6 games. I see Boyd being a big part of the Bengals' success this week.
Jauan Jennings receiving yards (OVER 24.5) (-110)
Oddly enough, Jennings is a big part of the San Francisco power running game. The safe, quick hitters to him out of the slot helps to keep Jimmy G on schedule, give him confidence, and stretch the defense to set up said running game. Slot coverage has been an issue for the Green Bay secondary all season, which has been masked by elite-level play on the outside. This is another reason why Packer fans should be a bit worried about this game: the Niners excel at operating in the middle of field and Jennings is a big part of that. Starting Week 14, Jennings' targets have been 5, 6, 5, 2, 7, and 5 and he's gone over this number in 5 of those 6 games.
Allen Lazard receiving yards (OVER 39.5) (-110)
Yes, Davante Adams dominates the Green Bay receiving corps and yes, Randall Cobb is back in the slot. So why do I like Lazard here? Because Marquez Valdes-Scantling is banged up and Aaron Rodgers loves to spread the ball around. Since Week 12, Lazard has become a trusted target of Rodgers, getting 6, 7, 4, 5, 6, and 6 targets on those games and going over this number in 4 of the 6 games. The 49ers are going to do everything they can to mask their secondary with extra help on Adams, which should open things up for guys like Lazard to have a solid day.
PAST RESULTS
Last week: 2-4, -2.43 units
Philly bit us last week with a baffling game plan that, predictably, ended in disaster. Let's have a big week this week!
Overall: 21-27, -7.59 units
