This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
Games
Jacksonville Jaguars 
at New England Patriots 
(UNDER 41.5) (-110)
There are no style points in the NFL, only wins and losses, and nobody is less stylish than Darth Hoodie and his Patriots. New England doesn't need to win big, they just need to win, and I can see this game being similar to the first Buffalo game where they were in complete control while Mac Jones threw only 3 passes. In that game, they knew Buffalo couldn't throw the ball…….sound familiar, Jags fans (all 7 of you)? Long term, I still love Trevor Lawrence, but he is so bad and broken right now (thanks Urban). The Jaguars just want this season to end and to start anew next year. I see this game as a very fast-moving, low scoring game that doesn't come close to the total
New Orleans Saints 
(-6.5) (-110) vs. Carolina Panthers
I believe there is value here based on what we saw last from the Saints. The Saints aren't a great team, but they were very much behind the 8-ball having to start rookie Ian Book at QB and missing a number of other key players last week. The one thing you can say about New Orleans is they are still playing hard, have a good coach, and have a formidable defense. Let's contrast that to what is going on in Carolina: internal unrest, rumors, and the worst QB situation in the league, which is saying a LOT right now. The Panthers appear to have waved the white flag on the year while the Saints are too stable of an organization to ever do that. With Alvin Kamara healthy and the QB situation improving, I like the Saints to roll over the hapless Panthers.
Detroit Lions 
(+7.5) (-114) at Seattle Seahawks
I've said it many times the last few weeks: Dan Campbell is easy to poke fun at, but his players sure seem to love him and there is no dispute that they are playing hard for him. Jared Goff is questionable, but D'Andre Swift appears ready to resume his normal workload, which should provide a needed offensive boost for Detroit. In Seattle, the end of the Pete Carroll/Russell Wilson Era appears near as we've seen and heard Seahawk players being reflective of their years together. Frankly, the Seattle organization needs change, whether it be with Carroll, Wilson, or both. It is weird to say the Lions are in a more positive, stable situation than Seattle, but that is the truth, and I'll take the team on the rise over the team in decline, especially when getting more than a TD.
Other Bets
2-Team Teaser: Indianapolis Colts 
(-6.5) and Miami Dolphins 
(+7.5), Parlay (+153)
Teasing each of these games to get on the other side of 7. The Colts are a force and should be getting most of their key players back. Even without them, the impressive Indy run game and defense dominated the Cardinals last week in the desert. Any Raiders success has been done completely with smoke and mirrors. Indy will lay the hammer down in this one. The Dolphins are the hottest team in the NFL right now and they come into Nashville to take on a Titans team that has been thoroughly unimpressive without Derrick Henry. The Titans don't blow anyone out and Miami keeps everything close.
D'Andre Swift anytime TD (+115)
As mentioned above, Swift appears ready to resume his regular workload against a Seattle team that should be relatively disinterested. Getting + money on a starting, bell-cow back to score a TD seems like great value to me. Swift will have plenty of opportunities to get into the end zone.
Taysom Hill rushing yards OVER 49.5 (-114)
Hill will be a major piece of the Saints' offense moving forward as New Orleans continues to see what they have in their multi-tool QB. Carolina has posed little resistance in recent weeks and, as said above, are a team in turmoil and generally disinterested in the rest of the season. Hill should be back in the fold for New Orleans at QB this week and will have the ball in his hands a lot. 50 yards is very reasonable at -114.
PAST RESULTS
Last week: 1-5, -4.18 units
Brutal is the only word for it. Some bad luck, but mostly bad reads on my part. The Colts and Lions dog parlay kept us from getting skunked. It happens, particularly in the NFL….onward!
Overall: 15-15, -.63 units
