This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens NFL Betting Odds, Picks and Predictions,
Divisional Round Weekend
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What a matchup! We have the Texans with their superstar rookie quarterback, C.J. Stroud going on the road to face arguably the best team in the NFL. Houston has defied logic all season. Stroud keeps them in just about every game they play. The coaching staff has maximized the Texans' talent on both sides of the ball. Meanwhile, the Ravens have the likely NFL MVP in Lamar Jackson. Playing in Todd Monken's offense, Jackson has proven effective in shredding opponents as a passer and/or runner. Also, the Browns (the team the Texans beat last week) may have been the flashiest defense in the league, but the Ravens have been nearly as solid throughout the season. The difference between the Ravens and Browns defense is that the Ravens can adapt to any offense they face.
At 13-4, the Ravens had the best record in the league. They earned the home-field advantage. In addition, they were able to rest all key starters since their win over the Dolphins on Dec. 31. As a result, Baltimore enters this game with nearly three weeks of rest. On the season, the Ravens averaged 28.4 while giving up 16.5 points per contest.
On the other hand, the Texans have been playing in must-win games for well over a month. In building a 10-7 regular-season record, they only faced two teams that won their divisions. They lost to the Ravens in Week 1 and beat the Buccaneers in Week 9. They did not have a very difficult schedule. During the regular season, Houston averaged 22.2 points while allowing 20.8 per game.
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Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens Betting Odds for Divisional Round Weekend
The Ravens are 9.5-point home favorites while this game has an over/under total of 43.5. The team total for the Ravens is 27.5, while the Texans' team total is 16.5. These odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook.
Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens Betting Picks This Week
The Texans just scored 45 points against the Browns. That was their highest output of the season. Facing the Ravens is a very different task. Unlike the Browns who play one of the highest rates of man coverage in the league, the Ravens have one of the best zone defenses in the league. Baltimore disguises coverage and tricks QBs with simulated pressure. Also, Baltimore recently beat up on the 49ers and Dolphins, both of which run a similar offense to that of the Texans. Although C.J. Stroud has been a superstar, this could be a game they miss not having Tank Dell and Noah Brown. Finally, the Texans lack a sustaining rushing game. That would be useful against a Baltimore defense that plays with a lot of light box counts on defense.
The Ravens haven't just beaten teams this year, they've dismantled quite a few very good teams. A list of teams they beat by at least 14 points includes the Dolphins, 49ers, Jaguars, Bengals, Seahawks, Lions, Browns as well as the Texans in Week 1. Aside from the Week 18 game in which they rested starters, Baltimore has scored at least 31 points in eight of its last 10 games. The Texans have an opportunistic defense. However, despite facing mostly middling (or worse) offenses, they ended the regular season giving up at least 24 points in five of their last 10 games.
It's easy to take Houston's blowout win in the wild-card round and use it to predict success this weekend. However, the rested Ravens are playing at home. They can attack the Texans on the ground or through the air. Meanwhile, this is probably the toughest test the Houston offense had all season.
The Ravens at -9.5 (-108 odds) looks like a huge number, but remember, Baltimore is a team that can blow anyone out. Also, consider looking at this game going over 43.5 points (-112 odds), as the Ravens should force the Texans to play aggressively on offense. But in that scenario, the highest-probability bet is the Texans scoring over the 16.5-point total (-115 odds). These odds can be found at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens Best Bet: Texans Team Total Over 16.5 points
Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens Prediction
There is a possibility that the Ravens show some rust after their key players had almost three weeks off. However, Baltimore has many different ways it can beat playoff-caliber teams. The Ravens can win on offense by running or passing. Lamar Jackson is playing at an elite level, and between the play-action passing attack (which Houston struggles to defend) and the use of RPOs, this seems like too much of a challenge for a Texans defense with struggles at linebacker. Also, the Ravens defense can squeeze the life out of offenses that are one dimensional, which is what the Texans may have to become as the game progresses.
At least the Texans have C.J. Stroud. The star QB has overcome a lot of tough situations all season. He could have some struggles, especially if the Ravens bracket Nico Collins. Regardless, it's easy to see Stroud having intermittent success. Also, he easily could put some late points on the scoreboard if the contest gets out of hand.
I predict the Ravens win this game, 27-20. The score may be close, but I expect the Texans will score late to close the gap.
