Job Battles: Running Backs Part 5

This is the fifth and final installment in the series of articles examining running back competitions around the league. You can view the previous entries by clicking on the following links: first post (CAR/CIN/DEN), second post (GB/IND), third post (JAC/KC/LAC), and fourth post (LV/NYG/NYJ).

This one will look at the Philadelphia, San Francisco and Tampa Bay backups.

The competitions are listed alphabetically for team location, and the players are listed in order of years in the NFL. A general verdict is issued at the end of each blurb.

Kenneth Gainwell vs. Will Shipley, PHI

These two are competing for the chance to back up Saquon Barkley. Barkley will be a high-volume player in the Eagles offense so when Barkley is healthy it's unlikely there will be much for either of Gainwell or Shipley to do, but if Barkley were to miss time at any point then Gainwell or/and Shipley might quickly become relevant in mainstream fantasy leagues.

Gainwell and Shipley are actually somewhat similar as prospects -- Day 3 running backs who lack the build for power running, but who thrive in space and as pass catchers. Gainwell was a fifth-round pick out of Memphis in 2021, while Shipley was a late fourth-round selection out of Clemson in the 2024 draft.

Gainwell (5-foot-8, 201 pounds) is the slightly smaller of the two, with Shipley (5-foot-11, 206 pounds) bigger but still smallish in his own right. Particularly since Gainwell has the denser build at three inches shorter, it's unlikely that the build difference between the two will matter in any way. Given that Gainwell ran a 4.47-second pro day 40 and Shipley a 4.46 pro day 40, their density-adjusted speed is basically the same.

With similar skill sets and similar tools, it appears that Gainwell and Shipley are headed toward a redundancy in 2024. Indeed, the fact that Gainwell is in the final year of his rookie contract might be what drove the Eagles to select Shipley with that pick. This might simply be a matter of Gainwell holding the spot until he walks in free agency, at which point Shipley would be the all but designated replacement.

Given his veteran status and given that the Eagles have shown some level of fondness for Gainwell, we might figure that Gainwell would get the Starter title if Barkley were to miss a game. Identical as their roles and tools might be, there might be evidence that Gainwell has the stronger skill set between himself and Shipley. Gainwell was a high-volume, high-efficiency producer at Memphis, outplaying the likes of Darrell Henderson, Antonio Gibson and Tony Pollard. Gainwell's NFL rushing production is also solid, checking in at 4.4 yards per carry over 205 attempts with a healthy touchdown rate (11). Gainwell's biggest problem might be ball security -- his five fumbles on 291 career touches is not easily accepted -- but Shipley was a fumbler at Clemson in his own right.

Verdict: Gainwell will be the primary backup to Barkley, with most of his off-the-bench reps occurring in passing or/and meaningless situations. If Barkley were to miss time, Gainwell would likely be the starter, though at around just 5-foot-8, 200 pounds it's unlikely that Gainwell could withstand Barkley's prior workload. A timeshare between Gainwell and Shipley would be likely at that point, though Gainwell should hold at least a 60/40 advantage in that scenario.

Elijah Mitchell vs. Jordan Mason vs. Isaac Guerendo, SF

Christian McCaffrey is of course the workhorse of the 49ers offense, but the Shanahan offense makes it easy for players to produce at any position and running back is no exception. Therefore, if McCaffrey were to miss any reps it would likely be valuable reps. Between Mitchell, Mason and Guerendo the 49ers have three players likely capable of providing quality production if they were to inherit a sufficient workload.

For now, Mitchell is the clear backup to McCaffrey. Mitchell has the trust of Shanahan -- never fumbling helps -- but we also know from Mitchell's superb rookie season that he is a fully capable player. Mitchell is skilled in almost all running back situations, and his sub-4.4 speed makes him dangerous from long range.

Of course, Mitchell has been such a bummer in recent years because of his horrific injury luck. Knee problems in particular have been a recurring issue, which is frustrating not only because Mitchell is clearly a good player otherwise, but also because Mitchell was almost always healthy at Lafayette in college.

No one can truly predict whether Mitchell's injury luck will improve any, but the 49ers have two capable backups beyond Mitchell in Mason and Guerendo. Indeed, even though the 49ers clearly valued Guerendo as a fourth-round pick, it would be surprising if Mason were to lose his roster spot. More likely is that the 49ers would keep all three of Mitchell, Mason and Guerendo. Mason has consistently produced with his meager NFL usage, turning 83 carries into 464 yards (5.6 YPC) and four touchdowns. Like Mitchell, Mason has not fumbled in the NFL.

So if Mitchell is so great when he's healthy, and if Mason doesn't look so bad himself, then why would the 49ers target Guerendo? The main reason is just that Shanahan understands the need for depth at a violent position, but the other is that Guerendo offers unique big-play ability, both as a runner and receiver. Mason has mostly been a rushing specialist in the NFL, playing a handful of passing-down snaps but never as a target. Guerendo is a good receiver, and he runs a 4.33 at 221 pounds.

At 221 pounds with 4.33 speed, Guerendo has pretty much 80-grade tools. Mitchell is very fast and Mason can run with power at over 220 pounds, but Guerendo has the best of both players at once. As much as the 49ers would be horrified to think about a scenario where they're without McCaffrey or Mitchell, at least they know that Guerendo offers a three-down skill set with an extremely rare combination of power and speed.

Verdict: McCaffrey will rarely rest, and so the likes of Mitchell, Mason and Guerendo will rarely see the field whenever McCaffrey is healthy. Whenever McCaffrey might miss time, Mitchell is the first one up. If Mitchell stays healthy, he would likely thrive as a replacement. If Mitchell's durability troubles continue to plague him, then a rotation between Guerendo and Mason would likely prove productive. Guerendo in particular has high upside due to his combination of big-play ability and pass-catching acumen.

Chase Edmonds vs. Sean Tucker vs. Bucky Irving, TB

Rachaad White was a productive three-down workhorse for the Buccaneers in 2023, and given his success he will likely function as the same thing in 2024. What's less clear is what the Buccaneers are looking for behind White on the depth chart.

One of the few areas where White struggled in 2023 was regarding rushing efficiency and/or explosiveness. White averaged only 3.6 yards per carry with only six rushing touchdowns on 272 attempts, both of which are less than helpful when budgeting an offense. Some of that wasn't White's fault -- Tampa's run blocking was clearly not good in 2023 -- but it would make sense if the Buccaneers selected Irving in the fourth round of the 2024 draft with the goal of improving the efficiency of the Tampa Bay run game in a small-volume role.

A low-volume, high-efficiency type of ballcarrier is often times what you might call a Draw Back -- that kind of runner who provides timely chunk gains of yardage, offering a change of pace and often times an efficiency boost to an offense. The Draw Back has its uses, but its efficiency usually doesn't scale up, desperate as people might be to simply prorate the superior efficiency over an indefinitely increased workload. The Draw Back will often times also be a standout pass catcher.

Well, Irving checks those boxes. Irving was a highly productive runner and receiver both at Oregon and Minnesota, and Irving projects especially well for play designs like draws, screens and maybe counters. Whereas White offered volume but not explosiveness as a runner, Irving might offer explosiveness on a small volume, giving White more rest and juicing the team YPC a bit, in theory.

There are at least two concerns in Irving's projection, however. The first is that he will not offer volume at 5-foot-9, 192 pounds. If White misses time, Irving will not inherit his workload. Much more likely would be a rotation between Irving and an indefinite number of others. The second concern is that Irving's athletic testing was some of the worst of recent memory, and almost certainly the worst of any running back drafted in the first four rounds going back a surprising number of years.

Skill set is great, and especially in a part-time role a player with substandard tools can still get by on skill and moxie. Irving's tool set grade is close to an 'F,' however, and his production at Oregon/Minnesota wasn't obviously better than Tucker's production at Syracuse.

The Buccaneers bizarrely buried Tucker on the depth chart after giving him two tiny auditions in the first two weeks of the season, at which point they switch to Edmonds for the meager off-the-bench role behind White. Both Tucker and Edmonds were extremely unproductive in this capacity, but the fact that they were is just another warning sign for Irving.

In fact, Tucker probably only went undrafted because of an unspecified health concern at the combine, where he was not allowed to participate due to said concern. At 5-foot-9, 209 pounds Tucker is better built to run power concepts or/and withstand volume than Irving, and there's a good chance Tucker is the faster player of the two.

Tucker and Edmonds have been bad enough to this point that Irving deserves some benefit of the doubt at their expense, but it still looks like this might be a case of two or even three players fighting over an exceedingly small cut of pie.

Verdict: Irving has a shot to emerge as a 20-snap draw back to the 45-snap workhorse White, but likely not much more. As much as Irving might be able to provide timely chunk gains and a generally useful change of pace, that outcome isn't guaranteed with Tucker and Edmonds hanging around. Even if Irving dispenses with both of Tucker and Edmonds, the 192-pound frame limits volume upside and the poor athletic testing limits big-play ability.