This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills Betting Preview, Expert Picks and Predictions
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The Dolphins (8-5) make the trip north to face division-leading Bills (10-3) at Highmark Stadium on Saturday night in a Week 15 AFC East showdown. The matchup is most critical for Miami's postseason aspirations, but a loss by Buffalo would mean they'd lose an eventual head-to-head tiebreaker with their division rival.
The Dolphins are coming off a Week 14 loss to the Chargers, a second straight defeat by a 23-17 score on Sunday night. The Bills, meanwhile, have now won four straight games following a 20-12 home victory over the Jets on Sunday afternoon.
Miami Dolphins 
vs. Buffalo Bills 
for Week 15
*Best lines at time of writing listed
Moneyline: Dolphins +275 (DraftKings Sportsbook)/ Bills -300 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
Point spread: Dolphins +7 (PointsBet Sportsbook)/ Bills -7 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
Total: Over 43.5 points (FanDuel Sportsbook)/ Under 44 points (PointsBet Sportsbook)
The Bills opened as 7.5-point home favorites when the line was first released in the middle of last week, and although it shrunk to as low as 6.5 at the beginning of the week, it's consistently toggled between 7 and 7.5 since that point.
In contrast to the modest movement on the spread, the total has seen a major dip, with expected weather conditions of high 20s temperatures and 4-to-8 inches of snow accumulation certainly playing a role. It opened at 47.5, but it dipped all the way down to 41.5 before rising again to as high as 44 going into game day.
Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills Betting Picks This Week
The Dolphins come into this matchup with no shortage of obstacles and negative vibes surrounding them. Not only is the weather expected to be very counterproductive to the warmest-weather team in the league, but Miami also has the albatross of two consecutive poor offensive performances.
Tua Tagovailoa's abysmal night against the Chargers in Week 14 was especially concerning. The third-year quarterback completed 10 of 28 passes for 145 yards with one touchdown, and he now faces a Bills team that held him to 186 yards back in Week 3 during tropical conditions in Miami.
Buffalo has allowed just 215 passing yards per game in the last three and a 60.5 percent completion rate at home overall. The Bills have also snagged 13 interceptions and recorded 35 sacks, making this an exceedingly difficult matchup for Tagovailoa and his talented pass catchers to get back on track.
On the other side, the Bills have a much brighter outlook against a Dolphins squad that's now allowing 259.4 passing yards per road game and a robust 69.5 percent completion rate in that split. Justin Herbert was seemingly able to pass at will in Week 14 versus Miami, and the weather doesn't figure to faze Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs and company Saturday night.
Allen threw for 400 yards with two touchdowns and ran for 47 on eight attempts as well back in the Week 3 win for the Dolphins. Humidity ultimately got the best of the Bills in that narrow two-point loss, but the tables are certainly set to be turned Saturday night with respect to the weather.
With the Dolphins' run defense also conceding 127.7 rush yards per road game, the Bills should enjoy more than enough balance here to squeeze out a solid win.
Dolphins vs. Bills Best Bet: Bills moneyline and Over 43.5 points (+148 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills Prediction
Bills 28, Dolphins 20
As already discussed, it's a bit of desperation time for the Dolphins, and the offense will be out to prove it can snap out of its recent funk. However, I still don't expect that to lead to more than 20 points, especially with the weather factor at play. Consequently, a one-possession Bills win is very conceivable in this spot.
