This article is part of our Showdown/Single Game DFS Breakdown series.
Tom Brady is not accustomed to losing, least of all to teams like Washington. While Brady of course cares more about and saves plenty of valuable ammo for the playoffs, he might have some frustration to let out on this Giants defense on Monday Night Football. A number of injuries complicate the matchup, though some of them may come with good news soon. The Giants will be without slot receiver Sterling Shepard but might get back Saquon Barkley (ankle), and although the Buccaneers are without Antonio Brown they might get Rob Gronkowski (back) on the field for the first time since his brief appearance in Week 8. Another one to watch is Tampa corner Carlton Davis – if they activate him from IR it makes the Tampa Bay secondary substantially improved. The over/under is 50, with Tampa favored by 11 points.
QUARTERBACKS
You like Tom Brady ($11200 DK, $17000 FD) here for a lot of reasons; his touchdown rate as a passer, the heightened urgency to win after an embarrassing loss the preceding week, the generally favorable matchup against a Giants defense that struggles to rush the passer. The Giants do a good job of playing Bend But Don't Break style pass defense, giving up a completion percentage of 67.9 percent but at just 6.9 yards per attempt, but if you give Brady forever to throw any defense will eventually reach the Break point that they otherwise might not. The Giants will also be without two pieces of its
Tom Brady is not accustomed to losing, least of all to teams like Washington. While Brady of course cares more about and saves plenty of valuable ammo for the playoffs, he might have some frustration to let out on this Giants defense on Monday Night Football. A number of injuries complicate the matchup, though some of them may come with good news soon. The Giants will be without slot receiver Sterling Shepard but might get back Saquon Barkley (ankle), and although the Buccaneers are without Antonio Brown they might get Rob Gronkowski (back) on the field for the first time since his brief appearance in Week 8. Another one to watch is Tampa corner Carlton Davis – if they activate him from IR it makes the Tampa Bay secondary substantially improved. The over/under is 50, with Tampa favored by 11 points.
QUARTERBACKS
You like Tom Brady ($11200 DK, $17000 FD) here for a lot of reasons; his touchdown rate as a passer, the heightened urgency to win after an embarrassing loss the preceding week, the generally favorable matchup against a Giants defense that struggles to rush the passer. The Giants do a good job of playing Bend But Don't Break style pass defense, giving up a completion percentage of 67.9 percent but at just 6.9 yards per attempt, but if you give Brady forever to throw any defense will eventually reach the Break point that they otherwise might not. The Giants will also be without two pieces of its standout safety triumverate, with Logan Ryan (COVID) and Jabrill Peppers (knee) unavailable.
Daniel Jones ($9600 DK, $15000 FD) is of course more of a wildcard than Brady – more capable of tanking, but equally capable of posting a high score. A crucial detail will be whether corner Carlton Davis suits up for Tampa – he's their shadow corner when healthy and the dropoff from Davis to Pierre Desir is enormous. If Davis is activated it might be grounds for lowering Jones' passing projection a bit. Even if Davis is active – he might shadow Kenny Golladay if so – Jones should have a killer go-to option with Kadarius Toney running against journeyman Ross Cockrell in the slot.
RUNNING BACKS
If Saquon Barkley ($7800 DK, $12000 FD) returns then it pushes Devontae Booker ($4800 DK, $11000 FD) back to the bench. If Barkley doesn't return then Booker should remain a three-down back for the Giants. It's much easier to roster either player on DraftKings, where their lower prices help offset the risk that the two split the workload on some basis. Barkley's original ankle injury was brutal, so it's possible the Giants ease him back in to the tune of 25-to-30 snaps rather than his customary upside of 50-plus snaps. The Buccaneers might actually be vulnerable to the ground game, moreover, because star two-gap tackle Vita Vea is out. The Buccaneers run defense is feared, but Vea is the primary reason why. They might not be imposing without him, and in any case the Buccaneers have been reasonably generous to opposing backs as pass catchers (87.7 percent completed, 6.1 YPT). Barkley and Booker are both capable of capitalizing, but knowing their playing time split is just about impossible if both are active. Elijhaa Penny ($800 DK, $6000 FD) is still hanging around, too, but if Barkley plays then Penny might not see a touch.
Leonard Fournette ($10000 DK, $11500 FD) continues to dominate the Tampa backfield, with former co-starter Ronald Jones ($1400 DK, $7000 FD) playing just 10 snaps over the last two weeks. By now it seems safe to say that Jones needs a blowout or Fournette injury to play much. Gio Bernard ($1800 DK, $6500 FD) seems to have passed up Jones on the depth chart, though even Bernard only plays in hurryup situation. Fournette might be expensive, but that's just how it works with any three-down back in one of the league's top offenses. The Giants have really struggled to defend running backs, moreover, conceding 4.6 yards per carry while allowing running backs to catch 83.8 percent of their targets at 7.2 yards per target. It's a great matchup for Fournette.
WIDE RECEIVERS + TIGHT ENDS
Kadarius Toney ($6800 DK, $9000 FD) is a player to seriously consider, because with Sterling Shepard out Toney will serve as the Giants' full-time slot receiver. That means the rookie will run away from standout corners Jamel Dean and Carlton Davis and will instead run against the slot corner Ross Cockrell, who's basically the guy you call when your starter gets hurt and no one on your practice squad is good enough to play. Cockrell is a pro no doubt, but he's usually unwanted for a reason: you can only hide him so much and he might eventually have to cover a player like Toney. Kenny Golladay ($7000 DK, $9500 FD) and Darius Slayton ($3200 DK, $7500 FD) are both good players, but Dean is lab-built to cover players specifically like them – taller sideline burners are Dean's specialty. If Davis is still out, though, then Dean can only take one of Golladay or Slayton on a given play, and the one Dean doesn't cover could really hurt a corner like Desir or Dee Delaney. Collin Johnson ($200 DK , $5500 FD) is an interesting punt consideration as the Giants' WR4 of late, running ahead of John Ross ($400 DK, $7000 FD), though sometimes those details fluctuate depending on matchup and game plan. If the Giants want speed, in other words, they'll of course pick Ross over Johnson. But when you have Slayton and Toney on the field you probably already have enough speed. Evan Engram ($6600 DK, $8000 FD) and Kyle Rudolph ($2200 DK, $6500 FD) are your (uninspiring) Giants tight ends, though to be fair Engram has quietly produced somewhat well the last three weeks.
Mike Evans ($10200 DK, $13000 FD) is priced up again with Antonio Brown out, but it might be Chris Godwin ($9400 DK, $12500 FD) who has the easier matchup. Not that it's grounds to doubt or fade Evans, but he'll likely see the shadow coverage of James Bradberry, who's well-built to counter big wideouts like Evans. Godwin should avoid Bradberry and CB2 Adoree' Jackson by mostly running from the slot. Tyler Johnson ($5000 DK, $7500 FD) is likely your third receiver, while undersized burners Jaelon Darden ($600 DK, $5000 FD) and Scott Miller ($200 DK, $6500 FD) are the candidates to get the scraps. Miller would likely jump Darden and could even run alongside Johnson's workload if activated from IR, but it's not clear whether that will happen. It's also not clear whether Rob Gronkowski ($6200 DK, $10000 FD) will be able to return from his back injury, but if he does he could step into a big role right away. Cameron Brate ($3600 DK, $7000 FD) has given the Buccaneers nothing as their primary pass-catching tight end lately, while OJ Howard ($1200 DK, $6000 FD) seems to get stuck with all of the unenviable blocking tasks.
KICKERS
Ryan Succop ($4200 DK, $9000 FD) is kicking for Tampa, but with him you're paying up for the Tampa offense rather than his own kicking abilities. Succop's range has been dried up for years, and it wasn't an especially strong leg to start with. If you do pick Succop you might want to fade some of the most expensive Buccaneers players, because what usually turn to touchdowns will need to turn to field goals here for Succop to get into repeated field goal range enough times to provide upside.
Graham Gano ($4000 DK, $8500 FD) plays for the lesser offense but he's the best kicker in this game. Crucially, Gano has range and can find his way onto the scoreboard even if the Giants struggle to get past Tampa's 40-yard line.
DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS
Both defenses are short-staffed due to injury, and it might bode somewhat poorly for both that this is a Monday game rather than a Thursday game on a short week. Both offenses have had ample time to practice and game plan, so some of the off-rhythm mistakes we especially see in Thursday games might be less likely to occur here. With that said, the Buccaneers ($5200 DK) project much better of the two defenses, because they're heavy home favorites and Daniel Jones, despite the good traits in his game, will always be highly turnover-prone. The Giants ($2800 DK) are heavy underdogs and lack both a pass rush and run defense, so they would probably need an inexplicable meltdown from Brady to come out ahead.
